“ Indeed, … coal democracy is the worst form of power generation, Government except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time. ” (Winston Churchill) Richard L. Axelbaum Jens Professor of Environmental Engineering Science Director, CCCU Dept. of Energy, Environmental and Chemical Engineering Washington University in St. Louis
“ Indeed, … coal is the worst form of power generation, except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time. ” Richard L. Axelbaum Jens Professor of Environmental Engineering Science Director, CCCU Dept. of Energy, Environmental and Chemical Engineering Washington University in St. Louis
Carnot, the father of Thermodynamics and his Prediction in France, 1824 From: REFLECTIONS ON THE MOTIVE POWER OF HEAT AND ON MACHINES FITTED TO DEVELOP THAT POWER Nature in providing us with combustibles on all sides has given us the power to produce at all times and in all places heat and the impelling power which is the result of it. To develop this power to appropriate it to our uses is the object of heat engines. The study of these engines is of the greatest interest their importance is enormous their use is continually increasing and they seem destined to produce a great revolution in the civilized world. It appears that it must some day serve as a universal motor and be substituted for animal power, waterfalls and air currents . Over the first of these motors it has the advantage of economy over the two others the inestimable advantage that it can be used at all times and places without interruption.
Hans Rosling
Hans Rosling
Hans Rosling
Hans Rosling
Growth in Population after the Industrial Revolution Sustainable Energy, D. MacKay
Growth in Population after the Industrial Revolution Sustainable Energy, D. MacKay On the plus side folks, we will be landing way ahead of schedule touque.ca cartoonstock.com
World Energy in 2010 35% ¡ 32.6% ¡ 30% ¡ 27.5% ¡ Percentage ¡of ¡world ¡energy ¡ 25% ¡ 21.7% ¡ 20% ¡ 15% ¡ 9.7% ¡ 10% ¡ 5.7% ¡ 5% ¡ 2.3% ¡ 0.23% ¡ 0.17% ¡ 0.05% ¡ 0% ¡ Source: ¡IEA ¡2012 ¡
Worldwide energy consumption Report #:DOE/EIA-0484(2008)
Worldwide Electricity Generation
Coal Production (Mt) International Energy Agency 2011
Proposed coal-fired plants World Resources Institute (Nov. 2012)
India – the Challenge
Over 400 new coal fired plants are being planned for India to elevate them out of poverty …
World Renewable Electricity Generation (TWh) Very Rapid Growth in Wind and Solar since 2010! By 2030 Wind: 1500 TWh Solar: 250 TWh But by 2030: total production will increase from 21,400 TWh to 33,000 TWh Wind: 4.5% Solar: <1% Energy Information Agency 2012
The Moving Target World Electricity Generation International Energy Agency 2011
The Carbon Dioxide Issue CO 2 Emission Trends • Rapid increases in CO 2 (in giga-tonnes of CO 2 ) emissions in Asia Non-OECD • China is now the largest emitter of CO 2 • The developing world OECD has surpassed the OECD nations in total emissions. China • Global solutions are United States needed to address climate change. Sources: ACI, MSHA
The Four Requirements for World Energy : The energy portfolio must not lead to global conflicts – Energy distribution across borders is destabilizing – Nuclear proliferation must be avoided : – The future cost of electricity and fuels must be similar to existing cost structure – The energy portfolio must not destabilize economies : – Steady production, no blackouts, brownouts – Energy must be available on demand : – Control greenhouse gas emissions – Develop clean, long-term sources of energy
Energy Solution: A portfolio of options C onflict-free (Avoid the have-and-have-nots of oil) A ffordable R eliable E nvironmental Sustainable
Challenges in understanding energy … Natural Gas Natural gas in invaluable for: • Heating • Cooking • Hot water • Industrial processes • Peak power generation And fracking has unleashed enormous reserves of natural gas, but …
Using natural gas in base-load power plants is like … Yes, it will burn, but aren ’ t there better uses for natural gas? And what about: • CO2 emissions and fugitive methane emissions? • the possibility that environmental issues/earthquakes associated with fracking could rapidly curtail supply?
Challenges in understanding energy, cont. n If you were offered a choice, which would you choose? Ten $100 bills or a Million Pennies? n What if … the ten bills were scattered in this room, and n the pennies were scattered around Missouri n n ENERGY DENSITY: “ A Bird in Hand is worth two in the Bush ”
Challenges in understanding energy, cont. n Estimate how much these gloves are worth n How much would you pay for them in June? n “ Timing is Everything ”
Land Area Needed for 5 MW continuous: Ideal Conditions: Power from coal
Land Area Needed for 5 MW continuous: Ideal Conditions: Power from solar * Based on Results from NREL ’ s HOMER
Land Area Needed for 5 MW continuous: Ideal Conditions: Power from wind * Based on Results from NREL ’ s HOMER
Land Area Needed for 5 MW continuous: Average Conditions: Power from coal
Land Area Needed for 5 MW continuous: Average Conditions: Power from solar * Based on results from NREL ’ s HOMER
Land Area Needed for 5 MW continuous: Average Conditions: Power from wind * Based on results from NREL ’ s HOMER
Mountain-Top Coal Mining Orjan F. Ellingvag / Corbis
Mountain-Top Wind Plants AES Laurel Mountain consists of 61 GE 1.6 MW wind turbine generators mounted on 80-meter towers deployed along a 13-mile stretch of Laurel Mountain in West Virginia. An average of about 35 MW.
My Fear … n that in the name of the environment we will inadvertently do things that are ultimately devastating to the environment that we hold so dear.
Coal Land Use The red dot (6 square miles) depicts the size of the area mined in the PRB each year, which supplies over 40% of America ’ s coal (20% of the US power) Source: ACI, Frank Clemente at Penn State
The Clean Water Analogy Unfiltered Missouri River water Clean drinking water
But what about Carbon Dioxide? Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) Image from: http://www.martinfrost.ws/
U.S. CO 2 Storage Sites US: 1,800-20,000 Gt sequestration potential* 6 Gt of CO 2 emitted in 2007 Global: additional 8,000 Gt ** 27 Gt of CO 2 emitted in 2007 (Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (* DOE CO2 Atlas, **2010 Dooley et al., 2006) http://cdiac.ornl.gov)
Present U.S. CO 2 Sequestration Activities Currently more than 3,500 miles of CO 2 pipeline in place 1. Report: DOE/NETL-402/1312/02-07-08 In perspective… CO 2 stored by EOR: CO 2 avoided by using wind and solar compare to (natural and anthropogenic) for electricity instead of coal ~ 51 MMt/yr ~ 50 MMt/yr
Stabilization Wedge Natural Resources Defense Council
Conceptual Drawing of a Future Power Plant solar ¡ CO 2 ¡ wind ¡ O 2 oxy-‑fuel ¡combustor ¡ coal ¡ steam ¡ biomass ¡ turbine ¡ CO 2 ¡ liquid ¡ bioreactor ¡ fuels ¡ storage ¡
Next Generation Technologies Net Efficiency: SPOC process increases the n efficiency up to 6 percentage points over conventional oxy- combustion. Efficiency higher than Current n US Average. a b c a DOE/NETL #2010/1411 & EIA; b DOE/NETL #2010/1405; c DOE/NETL #2012/1557
Economic Performance Summary NETL NETL Case 12 Baseline w/ post SPOC SPOC Case 11 combust. Case A Case B (no CCS) capture Coal Illinois #6 Illinois #6 PRB PRB Steam Conditions Supercritical Supercritical Supercritical A-USC Heat Rate 8,686 12,002 9,555 8,819 (Btu/kWhr) First Year COE 80.95 137.28 101.38 102.80 ($/MWhr) % increase in 0 70% 25% 27% COE • 2011 cost basis • CO2 purity meets specifications for enhanced oil recover (EOR) • COE does not include revenue from sale of CO2, or costs for geologic storage.
Reflecting on key take home points • Nuclear - Let ’ s not trade one potential catastrophe for another • Natural gas - Invaluable … let ’ s not squander it • Solar and Wind – • Low energy density - pennies versus dollars • Timing is everything - price of gloves in summer • The developing world has mouths to feed NOW. • Energy demand is a rapidly moving target • Energy and Climate Change are global problems and will require global solutions • The are no quick, simple or proven solutions • A portfolio of technologies will be needed, including coal with CCS • Let’s stop fighting and get to work!
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