Are there any good jobs / workers in the Asheville region? Jeff DeBellis Director or Economic & Policy Analysis NC Department of Commerce Jeff.DeBellis@nccommerce.com
“How do you explain the disconnect where most employers contend they have good jobs that they cannot fill while most individuals in the region contend there are few good jobs available locally.”
► What do employers want? Where are they having difficulty? ► What do workers want? What is a “good job”? Break Down ► How is Asheville or Mountain Area WDB Region doing? the Problem (Population, Employment, Jobs, Wages, & Wage Growth, etc.) ► Is there a growing Labor Mismatch in the Region? ► What can be done to grow wages & satisfy employers?
Hiring Difficulties What Do Employers Need from the Labor Force?
► 4 in10 Employers North in NC claim some Hiring Difficulty Carolina’s ► Top 4 Areas of Difficulty (cited by at least 50% of employers) Skills Gap? ► Work Experience or ► Education/Credentials Job ► Technical Skills Mismatch? ► Soft Skills ► Low Pay acknowledged as factor by 30% of employers ► Slightly more difficultly in Construction & Manufacturing ► Slightly less difficulty in “STEM” and Healthcare Source : NC Department of Commerce, 2016 Employer Needs Survey
Good Jobs What Does the Workforce Look for in a Job?
► Pays relatively high earnings and — perhaps more importantly — provides opportunities for increases in earnings over time ► Provides adequate fringe benefits , such as health What is a insurance and retirement benefits “Good Job”? ► Enables the worker to have opportunities for autonomy and control over work activities ► Gives the worker some flexibility and control over scheduling and terms of employment ► Provides the worker with some control over termination of the job Kalleberg, Arne, 2011. Good Jobs, Bad Jobs: The Rise of Polarized and Precarious Employment Systems in the United States, 1970s to 2000s .
Mountain Area Economy State of the Region in Employment and Jobs (in 12 slides or less)
Strong Population Growth North Carolina Led by Buncombe & Henderson Counties 28% WDB 28% 2005-2014 2005-2025 Western 15% Prosperity Buncombe 15% 30% Zone 21% Henderson 14% 27% 14% Madison 8% 16% 11% Transylvania 9% 20% 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 Source : NC Office of State Budget & Management
Population is Aging and Getting Older 50.2 46.4 44.7 46.2 44.1 41.6 41.2 40.1 38.1 36.5 #13 #3 #54 #26 2005 2014 Buncombe Henderson Madison Transylvania North Carolina Source : NC Office of State Budget & Management
12% 10.9% 10% 10.3% North 8.9% 8% Carolina Unemployment 5.7% Rate Western 6% Consistently Region 4.7% 5.3% Lower than NC WDB 4% 4.6% 3.5% 2% 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Source : Local Area Unemployment Statistics
11% 10% 9% 8% Low Madison 7% County, 5.7% Unemployment 6% Transylvania Creates Tight County, 5.5% 5% Labor Market Henderson County, 4.7% 4% Buncombe 3% County, 4.3% 2% 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Source : Local Area Unemployment Statistics
10% WDB 9.0% 8% North Carolina 7.9% 6% Steady Job 4% Western Growth in the Region 2% 3.9% Mountain 0% Area WDB -0.8% Region -2% -1.8% -4% -3.8% -6% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source : Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages
Buncombe 15% County 13.8% 10% Regional Job Growth Driven by 5% Buncombe County Henderson County -1.3% 0% Henderson, Madison, & Transylvania Transylvania still struggle County -1.5% -5% Not to Pre-Recession levels Madison County -7.5% -10% 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Source : Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages
North 7% Carolina Recent Wage 6.8% 6% Growth after 5% Years of 4% Decline WDB 3% 2.6% (Real Wages, adjusted for inflation) Western 2% Region 2015 Wages 2.6% 1% Only 2.6% Higher 0% than 2005 -1% -2% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source : Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages
Real Wage 7% Growth Low in Madison 5% County All Counties 3.1% 3% Buncombe County 1% 3.0% Henderson No County within -1% County 50% of NC’s Real 0.9% -3% Wage Growth (6.8%) Transylvania since 2005 County -5% -1.6% -7% -9% 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Source : Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages
Composition of Industries Matter , 2015 WDB Employment Mix NC Employment Mix All Other Health Care & All Other Health Care & 33.0% Social Assistance 25.7% Social Assistance 19.4% 14.2% Admin, & Retail Trade Admin, & Retail Trade Waste Mgmt Services 13.6% Waste Mgmt Services 11.8% 5.9% 7.0% Construction 4.5% Manufacturing Manufacturing Education Education 11.1% Accommodation 10.5% 7.5% 8.9% & Food Services 13.0% Accommodation & Food Services Source : Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages 9.5%
If the WDB Mix Matched NC’s Composition… WDB Employment Mix w/ NC Composition $118 Million More in Total Wages Health Care & All Other Social Assistance 33.0% 14.2% For the Mountain Area 1.8% Above 2015’s Actual Total Admin, & Retail Trade Waste Mgmt Services 11.8% 7.0% Construction 4.5% Manufacturing Education 11.1% 8.9% Accommodation & Food Services Source : Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages 9.5%
Wages within Industries Matter , 2015 ► Average wage vs. NC average is -$8,000 or 17% lower ► 16 out of 20 Industries are at least -10% lower than the NC average ► Across the top 5 paying industries in NC, the average wage for the Mountain Area is 30% lower ► Healthcare is a regional strength. Wages are $3,000 higher or 7% above the NC average
High Tech wages are 103% higher $90,685 Wage WDB High Tech wage gap Discrepancies -36% High Tech wages are 49% higher Greatest in $58,332 “High - Tech” $44,723 Industries $39,019 Non- Non- High Tech High Tech High Tech High Tech NC WDB Source : Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, “high tech” as defined by the National Institute of Standards & Technology
► Percent of employees with a Bachelor’s degree is below the state average across Region’s top -paying industries Why Are Wages So Low Among % Employed with Highest Bachelor's Industries Paying WDB NC Variance Management of Companies 19% 28% -9% Industries? Information 29% 35% -6% Finance and Insurance 34% 38% -4% Professional, Scientific, & Tech Srvs 32% 36% -4% Compared to NC, Manufacturing 16% 17% -1% 2015
► Smaller proportion of Mountain Area employment at mid- or large-size business Why Are Wages So Low Among % Employment @ Highest Establishments > 50 Employees Industries Paying WDB NC Variance Management of Companies 0% 84% -84% Industries? Information 26% 66% -40% Finance and Insurance 0% 55% -55% Professional, Scientific, & Tech Srvs 14% 42% -28% Compared to NC, Manufacturing 76% 82% -6% 2015
Asheville’s Growing Labor Mismatch? The data says…
9.0 8.0 Slack Market 7.0 High # Unemployed per Available Jobs Mountain 6.0 Area Labor 5.0 Supply / Demand 4.0 3.0 Tight Market North # Unemployed Low # Unemployed per Carolina 2.0 Available Jobs per # Job Vacancies Mountain 1.0 Area WDB 0.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source : Commerce LEAD calculations using LAUS, JOLTS, & Conference Board’s Help Wanted Online
1,600 Non-Routine Routine Cognitive 1,400 Manual In North 1,200 Carolina 1,000 Increases in jobs in thousands Non-Routine Routine Jobs 800 Cognitive 600 Declines in Non-Routine Manual Routine Jobs 400 200 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Source : BLS, Current Population Survey
► Labor Surplus in Routine Manual jobs ► More labor supply than demand for workers ► Inconclusive Evidence Regional Occupational Mismatch is Better / Worse than NC What We ► Tight Labor Market – compared to Pre-Recession & NC Know ► Fewer unemployed per labor force & job openings ► Harder for employers to find workers at expected wage Mountain Area Labor Market ► More Workers are Unable to Find Desired Jobs in their Home County ► Greater reliance on urban employment centers ► Expansion of labor market geographies
Can We Grow Wages & Make Employers Happy?
► Expand workforce education & skills in high-pay industries Incent ► Expands business productivity, output, & employment growth Competition in High-Pay Industries ► Attract & Grow new businesses in high-pay industries ► Increased competition for labor adds wage pressure
Questions? Jeff DeBellis Jeff.DeBellis@nccommerce.com
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