ASEAN at 50 : Building Partnerships in a Growth Network Keynote Speech Manila, September 12, 2017
ASEAN at 50: Building Partnerships in a Growth Network Keynote Speech 1. Globalization (as you new it) is dead, Long Live “Globalnection” (a fully inter-connected world changing most of the production and distribution rules… hence economic measures and trajectories) 2. Regionalization as the optimal compromise ahead: checking ASEAN metrics gives a half-empty, half-full glass with growing lead-role of China 3. Conclusions for business leaders and policy makers: Revisiting the Rodrick Triangle Keynote Speech by Dr. Thierry Apoteker 2
1. Globalization is dead, Long Live “Globalnection” Keynote Speech by Dr. Apoteker
Changing patterns of globalization 1. Global trade in goods will not register the same drivers as in 1990-2010, though services take part of the slack 2. FDI and corporate integration challenged by relocation and technological innovations 3. Exchange of data is exploding, as the ability of people to get huge amount of information (fake and true) instantaneously 4. Empowerment of individuals: from Walras dream of perfectly fluid market price mechanisms to individuals as contributors to much larger number of steps in global value / service chains Keynote Speech by Dr. Thierry Apoteker 4
Changing patterns of globalization Long cycles for trade in goods Average Openness Trade Globalization (Weighted and Unweighted) 5 year moving average Source: Economic Globalization since 1795: structures and cycles in the modern world-system, Christopher Chase-Dunn, Yukio Kawano & Benjamin Brewer Keynote Speech by Dr. Thierry Apoteker 5
Changing patterns of globalization Changing regime and structure for trade World volume of Exports of goods & services growth Structural changes in different types of value- Average yearly growth by period added creation activities at the global level between 2011 and 2015 Share in 2015 minus in 2011 (percentage points) Source: IMF/WEO Number of interventions recorded by Global Trade Alert Keynote Speech by Dr. Thierry Apoteker 6
Changing patterns of globalization Growing role of services Decomposition of services value added in world gross exports by manufacturing industry, 2011 Keynote Speech by Dr. Thierry Apoteker 7
Changing patterns of globalization Major shifts in capital flows Global cross border capital flows M&A versus Greenfield FDI Keynote Speech by Dr. Thierry Apoteker 8
Changing patterns of globalization Goods and capital replaced by data? Global flows of data have outplaced traditional trade and financial flows Keynote Speech by Dr. Thierry Apoteker 9
Changing patterns of globalization Global trends affecting ASEAN process The 10 trends have important implications for the ASEAN Connectivity agenda Keynote Speech by Dr. Thierry Apoteker 10
2. Regionalization as the optimal compromise ahead Keynote Speech by Dr. Apoteker
ASEAN regional integration process: reality check 1. Traditional trade and investment metrics: still a long way to go, particularly on services and TBT 2. Other angles: communication and transport, corporate behavior and networks show stronger signs of regional integration 3. Other angles: geographic versus institutional integration highlights the global Asian dynamics in which ASEAN operates Keynote Speech by Dr. Thierry Apoteker 12
ASEAN integration process Progress on ASEAN economic integration by sector Keynote Speech by Dr. Thierry Apoteker 13
ASEAN integration process Stronger signs of integration improvement for logistics Logistics, cost and efficiency Keynote Speech by Dr. Thierry Apoteker 14
ASEAN integration process Large differences in connectedness Member States vary in their technology “readiness” and usage Selected indicators from the Networked Readiness Index 2016 Keynote Speech by Dr. Thierry Apoteker 15
ASEAN integration process Clusters of business systems Dendrogram of Clusters of Asian Business Systems, China and India Split into Private and State-Owned Business Systems XXP=Private, XXS=State Owned Keynote Speech by Dr. Thierry Apoteker 16
ASEAN integration process Enlarging geography Share of intra-regional trade at broad regional dimensions (% of total) Intermediate Goods Final Goods Keynote Speech by Dr. Thierry Apoteker 17
3. Conclusions for business leaders and policy makers Keynote Speech by Dr. Apoteker
Revisiting the Rodrick Triangle 1. Dani Rodrik is Professor of International Political Economy at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government. He is the author of The Globalization Paradox: Democracy and the Future of the World Economy and Economics Rules: The Rights and Wrongs of the Dismal Science. His newest book Straight Talk on Trade: Ideas for a Sane World Economy will be published in Fall 2017. 2. If “deep integration” provides the best macro efficiency, it comes with significant political and policy consequences. 3. In particular, he insisted on the need for a “compromise” associating the best integration process with sovereign state “policy independence” and the political wills / expressions of local populations Keynote Speech by Dr. Thierry Apoteker 19
Revisiting the Rodrick Triangle Deep Economic Integration Golden Straight Global Jacket Federalism Bretton Woods or EU Compromises Nation State and Domestic Politics & sovereignty Democracy Independent Isolationism Keynote Speech by Dr. Thierry Apoteker 20
Revisiting the Rodrick Triangle Deep Economic Integration Delegation of powers / Consistent policy / specific issues, political business actions? representation at regional level? What for ASEAN? Nation State and Domestic Politics & sovereignty Democracy More efforts for fairer distribution of integration benefits? Keynote Speech by Dr. Thierry Apoteker 21
THANK YOU FOR YOUR VERY PATIENT AND KIND ATTENTION TAC ECONOMICS is an independent research and advisory group based in Europe and focusing on top-down approaches to macroeconomic risks and opportunities Please feel free to contact us Thierry Da (Senior Advisor), thierry.da@taceconomics.com Morgane Lohézic, Head of Development and Communication morgane.lohezic@taceconomics.com Tel: +33 2 99 39 31 40 – www.taceconomics.com Keynote Speech by Dr. Apoteker
Recommend
More recommend
