NINTH MEETING OF THE WORKING GROUP ON MACROECONOMIC ASPECTS OF INTERGENERATIONAL TRANSFERS, 3-8 JUNE 2013 IN BARCELONA, SPAIN Implementation of National Transfer Accounts (NTA) in Cambodia by Mr. NOR VANNDY Deputy Director Department NIS/MOP, Cambodia
Outline � Introduction to NTA of Cambodia � Cambodian Population Structure Change,1950-2050 � Finding Results: Major NTA indicators � Conclusion � Policy Response 2 NIS/MOP Cambodia
Introduction to NTA of Cambodia � National Institute of Statistics (NIS) of Cambodia constructed a framework of NTA compilation since 2011. � NIS has compiled the NTA of Cambodia as of 2009 in collaboration with the Nihon University Population Research Institute (NUPRI) to Cambodia joined officially of the Global NTA Project in January 2013. 3 NIS/MOP Cambodia
Introduction to NTA of Cambodia � NTA of Cambodia is compiled in consistency with the National Accounts System of Cambodia to explore the major indicators such: labor income, consumption by population age structure. The first demographic dividends, economic life cycle and support ratio by age is also estimated at this round. � NTA of Cambodia in 2009 is recently updated for experimental estimates of per Capita labor income and consumption by age, urban and rural. 4 NIS/MOP Cambodia
Cambodian Population Structure Change 1950 – 2050 5 NIS/MOP Cambodia
1950 250 200 150 100 50 0 50 100 150 200 250 Male Female 6 NIS/MOP Cambodia
1960 250 200 150 100 50 0 50 100 150 200 250 Male Female 7 NIS/MOP Cambodia
1970 250 200 150 100 50 0 50 100 150 200 250 Male Female 8 NIS/MOP Cambodia
1980 250 200 150 100 50 0 50 100 150 200 250 Male Female 9 NIS/MOP Cambodia
1990 250 200 150 100 50 0 50 100 150 200 250 Male Female 10 NIS/MOP Cambodia
2010 250 200 150 100 50 0 50 100 150 200 250 Male Female 11 NIS/MOP Cambodia
2020 250 200 150 100 50 0 50 100 150 200 250 Male Female 12 NIS/MOP Cambodia
2030 250 200 150 100 50 0 50 100 150 200 250 Male Female 13 NIS/MOP Cambodia
2040 250 200 150 100 50 0 50 100 150 200 250 Male Female 14 NIS/MOP Cambodia
2050 250 200 150 100 50 0 50 100 150 200 250 Male Female 15 NIS/MOP Cambodia
Shares(%) of Population by Urban and Rural 90 80 80 80 79 79 78 78 77 80 75 72 71 70 60 Urban 50 Rural 40 29 28 25 30 23 22 22 21 21 20 20 20 20 10 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 16 NIS/MOP Cambodia
Finding Results Major NTA Indicators 17 NIS/MOP Cambodia
Per capita Total Consumption and Labor income by age in 2009 5000 TotCons'000KHR 4500 LaborInc '000KHR 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 18 NIS/MOP Cambodia
Per Capita labor incomes and consumptions by age, urban and rural in 2009, value in riels (Experimental Estimates) 19 NIS/MOP Cambodia
The effective Cambodian Support Ratio, 1950-2050 0.85 0.82 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.78 0.77 0.75 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.65 0.60 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 20 NIS/MOP Cambodia
The First Demographic dividend, Cambodia 1950-2050 2.00 1.57 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 -0.59 -0.50 -1.00 -1.50 21 NIS/MOP Cambodia
Conclusion � The support ratio and the first demographic dividend are low which may indicate that productivity in term of labor income is very low because the number of effective consumers are larger than the number of effective producers, which affects economic growth. � However, starting 2020, Cambodia will have the potential to increase the number of effective producers and labor income (productivity) because of the age structural changes in the population. 22 NIS/MOP Cambodia
Policy Implication � Since the proportion of the working age group is increasing. Cambodia can take advantage of this demographic dividend to increase its economic growth. � To create jobs for Cambodian young working group and also make balance population in the country through the promotion of foreign direct investment (FDI) and local investments such small and medium enterprises. � Productivity (labor income) in Cambodia is still low, especially in urban and rural area. Thus, investment in human capital development (education, health etc.) and utilization are very important. 23 NIS/MOP Cambodia
Policy Implication � Encourage capital accumulation during working ages to support retirement consumption during older ages. � Cambodia will begin to experience rapid ageing in the not too distant future (will increase from 3.4% in 2009 to 4.5% in 2020 and to 9.6% in 2050) and the current family support system will undergo change. Thus, it is necessary to put in place policies to meet the social security needs of the elderly. 24 NIS/MOP Cambodia
Policy Implication � Social security system, welfare services and other services for elderly should be strengthened and expanded. � The aging population in rural areas in Cambodia is rapidly increasing due to the out-migration of younger aged adults. Therefore, special programs should be implemented to support older adults in rural areas. 25 NIS/MOP Cambodia
THANK YOU FOR ATTENTION ! Q & A 26 NIS/MOP Cambodia
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