Demographic Dividend in Bangladesh An Application of National Time - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Demographic Dividend in Bangladesh An Application of National Time Transfer Accounts with Age and Gender Muhammad Moshiur Rahman South Asian Network on Economic Modeling

NTA Team in Bangldesh Dr. Bazlul Haque Khondker Dr. Selim Raihan Muhammad Moshiur Rahman Syer Tazim Haque

Contents • Demographic structure and transition • Bangladesh’s sector growth performance • An overview of National Transfer Accounts • Descriptive analysis of time use survey of 2012 • Policy issues

Demographic Structure and Transition 100+ 95 ‐ 99 90 ‐ 94 85 ‐ 89 80 ‐ 84 75 ‐ 79 70 ‐ 74 65 ‐ 69 60 ‐ 64 55 ‐ 59 50 ‐ 54 45 ‐ 49 40 ‐ 44 35 ‐ 39 30 ‐ 34 25 ‐ 29 20 ‐ 24 15 ‐ 19 9 ‐ 14 5 ‐ 9 0 ‐ 4 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 2050 2010 2030 Female Male

Demographic Transition 60 3.5 3 50 2.5 40 2 1.5 30 1 20 0.5 0 10 ‐ 0.5 0 ‐ 1 Crude birth rate Crude death rate Population growth rate

Bangladesh’s Sector Growth Performance 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1990 ‐ 95 1995 ‐ 00 2000 ‐ 01 2001 ‐ 02 2002 ‐ 03 2003 ‐ 04 2004 ‐ 05 2005 ‐ 06 2006 ‐ 07 2007 ‐ 08 2008 ‐ 09 2009 ‐ 10 2010 ‐ 11 2011 ‐ 12 2012 ‐ 13 Agriculture Manufacturing service Total GDP

Methodology • Calculating private consumption • Distributing Public Consumption • Calculating Wage and Self Employment Income • Incorporating Government Transfers to the Households • Age Band Distribution

Per Capita Income and Consumption of Different Age Groups 1600.0000 1400.0000 1200.0000 1000.0000 800.0000 600.0000 400.0000 200.0000 0.0000 0 ‐ 4 05 ‐ 09 10 ‐ 14 15 ‐ 19 20 ‐ 24 25 ‐ 29 30 ‐ 34 35 ‐ 39 40 ‐ 44 45 ‐ 49 50 ‐ 54 55 ‐ 59 60 ‐ 64 65 ‐ 69 70 ‐ 74 75 ‐ 79 80 ‐ 84 85 ‐ 89 90 ‐ 94 95 ‐ 99 100+ Per Capita Income Per Capita Consumption

Per Capita Income Net of Government Transfers 1600.0000 1400.0000 1200.0000 1000.0000 800.0000 600.0000 400.0000 200.0000 0.0000 0 ‐ 4 05 ‐ 09 10 ‐ 14 15 ‐ 19 20 ‐ 24 25 ‐ 29 30 ‐ 34 35 ‐ 39 40 ‐ 44 45 ‐ 49 50 ‐ 54 55 ‐ 59 60 ‐ 64 65 ‐ 69 70 ‐ 74 75 ‐ 79 80 ‐ 84 85 ‐ 89 90 ‐ 94 95 ‐ 99 100+ Per Capita Income Net of SP Per Capita Consumption

Per Capita Government Transfers 70.0000 60.0000 50.0000 40.0000 30.0000 20.0000 10.0000 0.0000 0 ‐ 4 05 ‐ 09 10 ‐ 14 15 ‐ 19 20 ‐ 24 25 ‐ 29 30 ‐ 34 35 ‐ 39 40 ‐ 44 45 ‐ 49 50 ‐ 54 55 ‐ 59 60 ‐ 64 65 ‐ 69 70 ‐ 74 75 ‐ 79 80 ‐ 84 85 ‐ 89 90 ‐ 94 95 ‐ 99 100+ Government Transfers

Life Cycle Deficit/Surplus (aggregate) 20000000000.0000 15000000000.0000 10000000000.0000 5000000000.0000 0.0000 0 ‐ 4 05 ‐ 09 10 ‐ 14 15 ‐ 19 20 ‐ 24 25 ‐ 29 30 ‐ 34 35 ‐ 39 40 ‐ 44 45 ‐ 49 50 ‐ 54 55 ‐ 59 60 ‐ 64 65 ‐ 69 70 ‐ 74 75 ‐ 79 80 ‐ 84 85 ‐ 89 90 ‐ 94 95 ‐ 99 100+ ‐ 5000000000.0000 ‐ 10000000000.0000 ‐ 15000000000.0000 Life Cycle Deficit/Surplus

Average Hours Worked of Employed Population Age 15 and Above 18 15.7 16 15.2 14.6 14.4 14 12 10 8 6.9 6.9 6 5.2 5.2 3.6 3.6 4 1.5 2 1.4 1.1 0.8 0 Paid work Household work Leisure work Other work SNA Non ‐ SNA Non ‐ Productive Male Female Source: Time Use Pilot Survey Report 2012

Average Hours Worked of Unemployed Population Age 15 and Above 25 22.8 20.6 20 17.8 16.5 15 10 6.2 6.2 5 2.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 0 0 0 0 0 Paid work Household work Leisure work Other work SNA Non ‐ SNA Non ‐ Productive Male Female Source: Time Use Pilot Survey Report 2012

Average Hours Worked of Unemployed Population Age 15 Years and Above in Rural and Urban Areas 16 14.7 13.6 14 12 10 8 7.3 6.3 6 4 2 1.6 1.6 2 1 0 Paid work Household work Leisure work Other work Rural Urban Source: Time Use Pilot Survey Report 2012

Average Hours Worked of Unemployed Population Age 15 Years and Above in Rural and Urban Areas Type of activity Rural Urban Male Female Male Female Paid work 6.7 5.0 7.7 6.2 Household work 1.5 3.6 1.0 3.0 Leisure work 1.1 0.7 1.6 1.4 Other work 14.7 14.6 13.7 13.5 Source: Time Use Pilot Survey Report 2012

Policy Issues • Maximum utilization of the demographic dividend • Change in the public transfer system

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