If this stuff is so great, then why isn’t everybody doing it? Harry Foster Chief Verification Scientist
Functional Verification Technique Adoption An Optimistic View of the Productivity Gap Let’s assume… Number of transistor doubles every 18 months (58% / yr) 48% CODE COVERAGE ANALYSIS Amount of logic we can design doubles every 2 years (41% / yr) Amount of logic we can verify doubles every 2.5 years (25% per year) 40% FUNCTIONAL COVERAGE Productivity Gap 37% ASSERTIONS Size (# transistors) FORMAL PROPERTY Verify 19% CHECKING Design Manufacture 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Time (years) Farwest Research and Mentor Graphics, 2008
EDA Revenue Is Flat 2% of IC Revenue EDA Cost per Transistor vs Transistors Produced per Hardware Developer Nearly 4-Orders of Magnitude since 1985 Total IC Revenue per Transistor Transistors/Engineer Total Engineers EDA License & Maintenance/IC Revenue (% Percent) 4.0% 10,000,000,000,000 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 3.5% 1,000,000,000,000 3.0% 100,000,000,000 ATE Capital Cost/Transistor ($) 1.00E-05 1.00E-05 EDA Cost/Transistor ($) IC Revenue/Transistor ($) 10,000,000,000 2.5% Quantity 1,000,000,000 1.00E-06 1.00E-06 2.0% 100,000,000 1.5% 1.00E-07 1.00E-07 10,000,000 1.0% 1,000,000 1.00E-08 1.00E-08 100,000 0.5% 10,000 0.0% 1.00E-09 1.00E-09 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 1.00E+13 1.00E+14 1.00E+15 1.00E+16 1.00E+17 1.00E+18 1.00E+19 1.00E+20 Source: Technology Research Group – EDA Database, 1986, EDA TAM, 1989 & Gartner/Dataquest 2005 Seat Count Report, Source: SIA, VLSI Research, Federal Reserve Note: EDA Cost Consists of EDA License and Maintenance revenue adjusted for Inflation… 1985 - 2007 Source: Mentor Graphics, EDAC MSS & SIA WSTS Gary Smith EDA, 2008 Seat Count Analysis VLSI Research, 2008 - Transistors Produced Analysis 3
SOC Design Costs Forecasted to Exceed Software Developers Outnumber Need for Software Development Automation Hardware Developers 2-to-1 $100 Million Within 3 Years System Design Has Shifted to the Semiconductor Suppliers 120 Hardware Software Apps Apps Apps Apps Apps To solve the rising cost of 100 400 Impact of Design Technology on SOC Consumer Portable Implementation Cost 348.3 337.8 complex chip design will 325.8 350 Service Abstraction 312 80 require more automation in $ US Millions 300 Middleware the software development 60 250 OS process! 200 SW 159.5 158.5 157.6 156.6 40 SW SW Driver 150 Driver SW Driver Driver 20 100 CPU MEM HW 50 How can formal help here? HW 0 HW HW 2007e 2008f 2009f 2010f 2011f 2012f 0 1 2 Hardware Costs Software Costs 2006 2007 2008 2009 Buses Notes: 1 Total Hardware Engineering Costs + EDA Tool Costs 2 Total Software Engineering Costs + Electronic Software Design Tool Costs Source: VDC - Embedded Systems Market Statistics 2007 Source: 2007 ITRS Roadmap 4
But, getting back to the question…. Needed Solutions and Research… Why isn’t everyone doing it? Lack of confidence metrics…. Characteristics of best-in- class…. — Industry wants solutions that allow — Invest in dedicated formal resource… them to merge and analyze — Plan their approach…. coverage(?) across many different — Focused on maturing expertise…. system domains… — Implement metrics to quantify the process…
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