An I DACORP Company Idaho Power Company’s 2009 Cloud Seeding Program Summary Shaun Parkinson, Ph.D, P.E. Engineering Leader
Idaho Power’s Cloud Seeding Projects Payette Upper Snake in cooperation with E. Idaho - HCRC&D • ldahoPo .e, wer Generator Non-Idaho Pow - Fl ight Lines er Generator Seed Rings
Payette Project Airborne and Ground-based Seeding • Seeding intended to enhance snowpack at the higher elevations above 4500’ • Target area ~ 938 sq. miles ~ 497 mi 2 above the 6000’ level • • 10 remote ground generators – private property – Working on SUP’s • Aircraft – Beach King Air C90 • Combined approach provides more opportunities for addressing storms.
-+-'+'- . :- ♦ .,.;c:. -1-1 Payette Target Control T arg et vs . Control Cumulati\18 Preoipit,"i on 1987 -2002 Hi sto rical Relationship and 2003-2009 Observed 58.0 ~ ----------------~-----------~----~-----~-----~ • "' 15%A OVE EXPE TED .;, 48.0 +- • • 23.0 +- ------ .,.,. '----------+----------+-----+------+------l • 18.0 ss.o 43.0 18.0 23 .0 28 .0 33. 0 38 .0 48.0 53.0 Poo led c on trol site cumulati•:e pre cipitati on (in.) - Oct. 15-Apr. 15
Payette Operations Summary Silver Iodide (grams) Hours Status Water WY % % TC** Year Normal* Benefit Total Air Ground Air Ground 2003 93% 16 33558 23270 10288 15.4 515 start-up (Feb-April) 2004 74% 5 21485 2803 18682 11.9 930 assessment 2005 65% 7 *** 27301 11122 16179 50.5 810 assessment 2006 136% 15 113173 97710 15463 48.5 768 operational 2007 56% 10 106082 76980 29102 51.3 1351 operational 2008 105% 16 61147 38740 22407 29.4 1123 operational 2009 107% **** 15 50274 26110 24164 17.1 1208 operational * Unregulated Payette Flow calculated at Horseshoe Bend ** TC = Target Control *** DRI Trace chemistry average benefit **** Estimated July 2009 runoff
Payette Benefit Estimate Benefits estimate using: • USBR regression equation for Payette at Horseshoe Bend – Using current 2008 conditions (near normal) • Precipitation increase of 10% from cloud seeding • Results in approximately 120 KAF of additional Apr – Jul runoff Estimated cost of additional water ≈ $6.5 / acre-foot
Payette Streamflow Analysis
~ ~ Y ~ ❖ ~ ~ Payette Streamflow Analysis Water Year Averaged Estimated Flows of the Payette River@ Banks : SF = 121 :S ( c £s ) -- -:~ Q l o w 3000 -- ,IF A V~ : -- -- ,l!! 2000 u "' >- 0 1000 i I 0 I I 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1950 Difference in the Annually Averaged Estimated Flows of the Payette River@ Banks 1500~~---~----~---~----~---~~---~ AQ 1948 - 2001 = r99(cfs) AQ 2002 ~ 2008 = 417( p fs) 1000 . : • • . r, __ r, l\ . .. 1 i. :§' 1 1 \ , \ • r-1 / • ,, ; l • • fj .J \t'\ .. Ir 1'\,' \t\ ;.;, !~~/', \;, • "'\ ; i<J \ 1 fi' ·•J<:j\/ 500 , } \/\{ \I ~ . \ . } 'I I · \ \ . ' . .. ( \ • ) 'f' : ~ -- o r ..... ...... . .... t y I'~ ) -> '(" I • . ..... I : ~ • ...... ...... : ............ ·····•······ .......... . 417-199 = 157927 (af/yr) SF-NF -500l=====---_j_ ___ ----1. ___ __j ___ __J _J_ ___ _.,L ___ 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 .,t Water Years since 1948 with SF Payette o • 1600 (cfs)
Streamflow Modeling NWS River Forecast Model • Additional runoff estimated using IPC’s NWS river forecast model. • Model uses mean aerial temperature and precipitation (MAT & MAP) by elevation bands • Two scenarios…with and without cloud seeding • Without seeding – adjusted MAP down by amounts indicated by target-control analysis (observed data includes seeding) • With seeding – used MAP based on observed data • Streamflow increase ranges from 6% to 16% increase (Draft)
Upper Snake Cloud Seeding Program Water Year 2009: • Placed 3 remote generators to augment the manual network run by the HCRC&D – IPC Operated and Maintained these units • Provided Meteorology Support for the overall USB project. • Data: – Radiometer in Ashton, Id (Temp, Rel Humidity, Liquid Water) – Rawinsonde in Wilford, ID (Wind)
E. Idaho CS Program \ I L
Upper Snake Operations Area I.-· - .. ( ·' ,I (
Upper Snake Operations Summary IPC Upper Snake 3 Remote Generators Ground Generator Usage for 2008-2009 Total Silver Iodide Weather Balloons Month Total Hours (grams) (Sondes) 2008-12 82.5 1,649 0 2009-01 56.9 1,138 10 2009-02 42.3 846 12 2009-03 137.2 2,743 15 2009-04 51.1 1,021 5 Totals 369.9 7,398 42
Meteorology Support • 24/7 project support by 3 experienced cloud seeding meteorologists • IPC generators are operated remotely from Boise " • Use public data and IPC Radiometer, Rawinsondes and .. Weather Stations. " • The meteorologist use this " weather data to determine which generators to turn on and off to seed most effectively.
‘09 - ’10 Objectives • Redesign remote generators summer 2009 – Less Maintenance – Safety – Faster and easier to deploy and recover – More cost effective – New generators will replace current units in the Payette • Add 7 to the Upper Snake for a total of 10 remotes – IPC and RC&D have identified the locations. • Continued meteorology support – Rawinsonde
◊ Upper Snake Planned ‘09 - ‘10 Operations • ldl!ho P owe, ( i! l'l e<at or 1/ * HO) •l di nv Pe w,; , G W\ E! (Skir ' Prop)s ed Ge oe ut o)r!I h wf 9 if a "fl' ;\ Ll w L2J JLJi N .!H!. 21.:.21 :J6 .» H.:.1l '
2010 Efforts – E Idaho • Fabricate 10 additional remote generators in 2010 to use during ’10 - ’11 season. • Locations to be identified – focus on continued enhancement of existing program before moving into new areas • Develop sampling plan to establish current silver levels in watershed (water, soils, plants, aquatic organisms). – Currently planning for this in Payette • Develop target – control analysis for E Idaho • Assess benefits of additional radiometer
E Idaho Aircraft • Explore aircraft – first cut of flight lines from WMI – Cost would be similar to Payette • Needs additional review and discussion… , __ ,._,_._,._Ill ,,.,_ ---- ,....,._,~, ...... ~.-...Af1.~ • __ ._ ......, .. _ o , .... . • _...___ J.:....,._, ..... ..._.. ..... .__
E Idaho Assessment • Develop plan for assessment • Initial discussions with DRI • Since Payette assessment… – Australia’s Snowy Hydro – Wyoming • Draw from these and other research efforts that show cloud seeding works • IPC’s intent will be to focus assessment on project targeting, project efficiency, and measuring effect
Targeting from Chemistry Data March 5 and 6, 2004 Control • Targeting of the seeding Ground-generator Site site operations was assessed by MC = silver integrating the silver found in deposited BC the snow over a given storm 100 x 10 -12 g period to estimate the total amount of silver deposited NG during the storm. KR V BM MM = silver 100 g released December 6 through 9, 2004 MC BC NG KR V BM MM CM Example Targeting Maps for the March 2004 and December 2004 storm periods
~ ~ Trace Chemistry Interpretation Snow Pack Density Trace Chemistry 13% increase in integrated water mass (SWE). 1.:l' 4'3t iJ .:J~Wt \l 1t:'$ 1.1:lii' 1.14t'1 ,, 0 14 5 : , l1r;li,; iJ.11 2 ':l O ·14 0 0 135 1)( .5; + 0130 O r;-; I " :@' 0 1 25 •).2~f5 O 120 + 'iii a 1 1s C • LI 0 110 O 105 O ·1 00 0 09 5 . , . 0 090 ·1 0 9 ,, 1• Wit.l th (CIO)
2004 Cloud Physics 1.0 FSSP LWC (gm-3) DMT LWC (g/m3) FSSP LWC 0.8 1.0 DMT LWC 0.6 0.5 Airborne seeding starts at left edge of 0.4 0.0 0.2 frame. Note that the total ice mass 400 800 Concentration (#/l) ShadowOr Crystal 08:15:00 08:25:00 08:35:00 08:45:00 Concentration (#/l) increases dramatically about 20 minutes 600 300 Total Accepted Conc. 2DC Total Ice ShadowOr Conc. 400 after the onset of seeding while at the 200 200 100 same time, the mean ice crystal size 0 Crystal Size (um) Crystal Size (um) decreases. 300 300 Median Ice 200 Mean (um) Mean Ice 200 MVD (um) Indicative of conversion of supercooled 100 100 0 liquid water into new ice crystals that 10 10 Temperature (oC) I= I 5 5 Dewpoint ( o C) can then grow into snowflakes. Dewpoint 0 Temperature 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 8 6 I= I Mixing Ratio (g/kg) Saturation Vapor MixRatio 5 6 Pressure (mb) SatVap 4 4 3 2 4000 2 Vertical Velocity (m/s) Altitude (m) 3800 1500 Altitude (m) Vertical Velocity 3600 1000 3400 500 3200 0 3000 -500 08:15:00 08:25:00 08:35:00 08:45:00 Time (GMT)
Silver Toxicity • The WMA has issued a statement on toxicity of silver originating from cloud seeding… http://weathermodification.org/AGI_toxicity.pdf • In summary, “The published scientific literature clearly shows no environmentally harmful effects arising from cloud seeding with silver iodide aerosols have been observed; nor would they be expected to occur. Based on this work, the WMA finds that silver iodide is environmentally safe as it is currently being dispensed during cloud seeding programs.”
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