The 14 th AIM International Workshop in Tsukuba, Japan Hydrological Effects of Climate Change on the Korean Peninsula 2009. 02. 15 Mr. H.C. Jung 1) , Prof. Y.Matsuoka 1) , Prof. D.K. Lee 2) 1) Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies, Kyoto University, Japan 2) Seoul National University, Korea 1
Contents 1. Background and Research Needs 2. Objectives 3. Methodologies 4. Results and Discussions 4.1 The Present Status of Water Balance: Validation 4.2 Ecosystem Contribution to Runoff Change 4.3 Future Water Balance and Availability Change 4.4 Extreme Events and Hydrological Hot-Spots 5. Conclusions 2
Background and Research Needs • There is substantial evidences that global warming has intensified the global hydrological cycle during the last 20 th century (Dai, 2006; Trenberth et al., 2007; IPCC, 2007a) • Warmer temperatures are resulting in increasing water contents in air and more precipitation and evaporation. Increasing precipitation is thought to be the primary reason for the observed runoff increases in many river basins (Huntington, 2008) • According to the recent climate simulations, the increasing trend of precipitation will be continuing in the Northern Hemisphere in the 21 st century (IPCC, 2008). It may result in increasing mean annual runoff or water supply for human activities and natural ecosystems on the Korean Peninsula. 2000 18 (a) ROK- annual mean temperature (b) ROK- annual prcipitation C) . 1800 A2 A1 16 B2 Land area temperature ( ˚ A1 Precipitation (mm/year) . 1600 14 1400 B2 12 B1 1200 A2 B1 10 1000 Historical A1 A2 B1 B2 Historical A1 A2 B1 B2 3 8 800 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Background and Research Needs • Although the mean annual water availability may be increased by climate change, the increasing seasonal variability of precipitation is expected to make more extreme events such as summer flood and winter drought in Korea • Along with spatial and seasonal variability, the forest ecosystem has important role in controlling hydrological cycle on the Korean Peninsula where about 70% of the region is forested. • Climate is a major driver of forest species distribution and the growth rate and structure of forests. Thus, climate change can potentially have significant effects on the role of forests in regulating water flow and influencing the availability and quality of water resources. • In addition to climate change effects on water and forests, the physiological effect of doubled carbon dioxide concentrations on plant transpiration is another driver for global mean runoff increases. 4
Research Objectives • Evaluation of Current Water Balance of Korean Ecosystem Using a GIS-based hydrological Model : For considering indirect effect of climate and land cover change on the Korean ecosystem, A process-based forest-hydrology model and detailed surface information have developed and validated using GIS and RS. • Evaluation of Ecosystem Contribution to Changes in Climate and Vegetation Cover: For assessing the sensitivity of water balance to climate change considering tree species change and CO 2 physiological effects, changes in water balance of selected 8 forested watersheds have evaluated using MRI-RCM and 3 different environmental change scenarios • Projection of Potential Hydrological Impact of Climate and Vegetation Change : For assessing the regional impact of climate change on the Korean Peninsula, water availability, flood, and drought impacts have simulated using high resolution climate model scenarios 5
Methodologies Modeling and Assessment Approaches Define and develop geographic and ecological scope of Korean ecosystem and watersheds Development and evaluation of Stochastic weather Atmospheric CO2 climate change scenarios (5km generation with concentration resolution) monthly climate Threats to habitat and Threats to biodiversity hydrological function Land use Model Future Land and manageme A GIS-based parameteri Vegetation Cover nt and Hydrological Model zation and conservati Database calibration on strategy Change in biodiversity and Change in hydrological Define Ecological conservation status response in watersheds and Hydrological • Changes in potential vegetation • Changes in water availability Hot-spots for • Extents, continuity and fragmentation • Changes in flood events and intensity implementing of remaining forest cover • Changes in drought events and adaptation strategies 6 • Changes in land use allocation intensity
Development and evaluation of database (1) - Watersheds and river networks Delineating and evaluation of Korean watersheds and river-network A. Unit basin from SRTM B. Pfafstetter basin C. Land cover database D. Providing additional information 90-m DEM encoding for routing E. Characteristics of the Korean watersheds No. A H slope DPK 737 170.0 532.2 12.4 ROK 820 122.1 166.1 9.7 350 400 180 350 Height Basin area Slope Forest and crop fraction 160 DPK- forest 300 300 DPK DPK DPK 140 ROK- forest 300 ROK ROK 250 250 ROK DPK- crop 120 ROK -crop Frequency Frequency Frequency Frequency 200 200 100 200 80 150 150 60 100 100 100 40 50 50 20 7 0 0 0 0 0 200 400 600 800 1000 0 500 1000 1500 2000 5 10 15 20 25 0 20 40 60 80 100 km2 % m degree
Development and evaluation of database (2) - 30-year daily climate (1971-2000) Mean temperature ( o C) Area Precipitation (mm) Potential ET (mm) (1000km 2 ) Jun.-Sep. Oct.-May Annual Jun.-Sep. Oct.-May Annual Jun.-Sep. Oct.-May Annual ROK 99.4 22.8 6.5 11.9 862 448 1310 477 310 787 DPK 122.5 19.1 0.6 6.8 620 260 880 402 171 573 Annual mean temperature Annual mean precipitation Simulated PE ROK DPK ( o C) (mm/year) (mm/year) 30 B.DPK-Pyeongan A.ROK-Gyeonggi 30 Precipitation and potential ET (mm) Precipitation and potential ET (mm) 300 P 300 P PE 20 PE 20 Temperature ( o C) Temperature ( o C) T2 T2 200 200 10 10 100 0 100 0 0 -10 0 -10 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D 30 D.DPK-Gangwon 30 C.ROK-Gangwon Precipitation and potential ET (mm) Precipitation and potential ET (mm) 300 P 300 P 20 PE PE 20 Temperature ( o C) Temperature ( o C) T2 T2 200 200 10 10 100 100 0 0 0 -10 0 -10 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D 30 E. ROK-Chungcheong 30 F.DPK-Hwanghae Precipitation and potential ET (mm) Precipitation and potential ET (mm) 300 300 P P PE 20 PE 20 Temperature ( o C) Temperature ( o C) T2 T2 200 200 10 10 100 100 0 0 Unit basin characteristics by the 30-yr mean annual temperature and precipitation 0 -10 0 -10 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D 200 160 G.ROK-Jeolla 30 30 Annual precipitation H.DPK-Hamgyeong Mean annual temperature Precipitation and potential ET (mm) Precipitation and potential ET (mm) 180 300 P 300 140 P 20 20 PE PE Temperature ( o C) Temperature ( o C) 160 T2 DPK DPK T2 10 200 120 200 10 140 ROK ROK 0 100 100 100 0 120 Frequency Frequency -10 100 80 0 -10 0 -20 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D 30 I.ROK-Gyeongsang 80 30 J.DPK-Yanggange/Jagang Precipitation and potential ET (mm) 60 Precipitation and potential ET (mm) 300 P 300 P 60 20 20 PE PE Temperature ( o C) Temperature ( o C) 40 T2 T2 200 10 40 200 10 20 0 20 100 100 0 -10 8 0 0 0 -10 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 0 -20 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D � C mm/year
Water balance modeling • Long-term water balances of gauged catchments � S � � � � � � � w 0 as P E R t � av t av • Thus � � � � � as E P R t av • Surface evaporation = canopy + soil evaporation � � E E E surface canopy soil • Modified PM equation for surface & canopy evaporation � � � � � � �� / (1 ) / G G G G f � � a i a i � � � � � � � � 1 / 1 / 1 G G G G a s a c surface canopy soil 9
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