350 300 Hydrogen car (BMW) (10 p-mpg) 250 QE2 200 Learjet (8 passengers) 150 Helicopter (20 p-mpg) 130 Energy consumption (kWh/100 p-km) Ocean liner 120 Range Rover 110 Ocean liner (full) 100 90 Car (1) (33 p-mpg) 80 Hovercraft 70 Hydrogen fuel-cell car (Honda) 60 Cessna 310 (6 passengers) Boeing 747 50 Boeing 747 (full) 40 Turboprop Catamaran Underground system Diesel high-speed train (full) Bus 30 (100 p-mpg) SeaBus Car (full) Electric high-speed train (full) Electric car (2 passengers) Electric car Underground train (full) 20 ) l l Tram (avg) u f ( n (200 p-mpg) Coach (full) i a Trolleybus r t Electric scooter 10 c i r t (400 p-mpg) c e l E Walk Cycle 0 20 370 780 900 50 100 150 200 670 Speed (km/h) Transportation [ MacKay09 ]
Projection of US oil production [ Hubbert56 ]
“It is difficult for people living now, who have become accustomed to the steady exponential growth in the consumption of energy from the fossil fuels, to realize how transitory the fossil fuel epoch will eventually prove to be when it is viewed over a longer span of human history.” [Hubbert71]
Running the Numbers [ chrisjordan.com ]
Natural Gas Biomass 3.2 TW Geothermal 0.1 TW Solar 5.2 TW Wind 3.6 TW Coal W T 6 3 . 0 Hydro 1 TW Nuclear 5 TW TOTAL 18 TW Petroleum World Power Production 2007 [ IEA/Stanford GCEP/Griffith09 ]
Saudi Arabia Others Russian Federation Iraq Iran Kuwait Angola Nigeria Mexico UAE Norway Net Oil Exports 2007 [ IEA ]
Hirsch Report: Overview “The era of plentiful, low-cost petroleum is approaching an end. The good news is that commercially viable mitigation options are ready for implementation. The bad news is that unless mitigation is orchestrated on a timely basis, the economic damage to the world economy will be dire and long-lasting. In the following, we describe the nature of the problem, options for mitigation, and required timing. The exact date of peaking is not known; some think it will be soon, others think a decade or more. However, the date is almost irrelevant as mitigation will take much longer than a decade to become effective, because of the enormous scale of world oil consumption.” “Waiting until world oil production peaks before taking crash program action leaves the world with a significant liquid fuel deficit for more than two decades.” [ Hirsch05 ]
Hirsch Report: Summary “The world has never faced a problem like this. Without massive mitigation more than a decade before the fact, the problem will be pervasive and will not be temporary. Previous energy transitions (wood to coal and coal to oil) were gradual and evolutionary; oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary.” [ Hirsch05 ]
400 340 350 330 300 320 CO concentration (ppm) 250 310 200 300 290 150 2 280 100 270 50 1769 260 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 0 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 [ MacKay09 ]
95% New projections (2009) 5% Old projections (2003) MIT Probabilistic Warming Projections [ Sokolov et al. 09 ]
What Do Degrees C Mean? 1 degree Ice-free arctic summer, polar ecosystem damage; coral reef bleaching; stronger hurricanes; erratic weather 2 degrees Lots of problems; 10-15% species extinction; most coral reefs bleached; permafrost melt begins; limit of no-return 3 degrees 20-80% loss of Amazon rainforest; extinction risk for polar species, 20-30% species extinction; continued permafrost melt; 1.1-3.2 billion people with increased water stress; widespread coral loss 4 degrees Shutdown of ocean calcification; major extinctions around the globe; decrease in food production; near-total deglaciation 5 degrees Many unknown impacts [ IPCC07 ]
Last time the planet was 6C warmer: 55 million years ago, during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. During this time, the planet was ice free, and crocodiles lived in the arctic. The warming happened over 20,000 years; our 6C of warming would happen in 1/200th the time.
Where do the emissions come from?
North America 25 5 GtCO 2 e/y a Greenhouse gas pollution (tons CO 2 e/y per person) i n a e c O 20 15 a c n i e r a p f A e o b r h b u t i E r r o a C N & & Sub-Saharan Africa a c a t 10 i c s r i a e r E m e m e A l A d h d t l a i u M r o t S n e C a i s 5 A 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 population (billions) Year 2000 emissions [ MacKay09 ]
Greenhouse gas pollution (tons CO 2 e/y per person) 10 15 20 25 0 5 0 Australia Ireland United States of America Netherlands Canada Russian Federation Germany United Kingdom Italy 1 France Saudi Arabia Kuwait Iran Turkey Year 2000 emissions [ MacKay09 ] Egypt Venezuela Brazil Trinidad & Tobago Mexico 2 Turkmenistan Singapore South Korea Taiwan Uzbekistan Japan Thailand population (billions) 3 China Indonesia 4 Pakistan 5 GtCO 2 e/y 5 India Philippines Vietnam South Africa Bangladesh Nigeria DRC 6
Average pollution rate (tons CO 2 /y per person) 10 0 5 0 U n i t e U d n S i t t G a e d t e e r s K m o i n a f R n g A u y d m s o s m e i a r i F n c r a F a e n d c 1 e e I r t a a t l i y o n I r a 1880-2004 emissions [ MacKay09 ] n T u r k e y B r a z i l M 2 e x i c o J a p a n population (billions) 3 C h i n a I n d o n 4 e s i a I n d i a 5 P a k i s t a n S o u t h N A i f g r e i c r a i a 6
We respond strongest Climate Change and to threats that are: Oil Depletion are: Visible Invisible With historical Unprecedented precedent Immediate Drawn out With complex With simple causality causality Caused by others Caused by all of us Have direct Unpredictable and personal impact indirect [ Miller09 ]
Australia Kuwait, UAE 25 United States Bahrain Canada Trinidad and Tobago l a Luxembourg o c 20 natural gas New Zealand GHG emissions (tCO /y per person) Ireland Estonia Saudi Arabia Netherlands Czech Republic 15 Belgium Turkmenistan Singapore 2 Finland Russia Oman Germany Denmark Norway m o d g Israel n i K d e t n i U Korea Greece Japan Cyprus Venezuela Austria 10 Iceland Slovenia Spain Poland Italy France Slovakia A r g Belarus e n Portugal t i n a Bulgaria Uruguay Sweden Hungary Uzbekistan Switzerland Malaysia Hong Kong C r o a t i a Malta Macedonia Romania Chile Mexico 5 Brazil Bosnia Lithuania Turkey Latvia China Costa Rica India Albania 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Energy use (kWh/d per person) Carbon vs. energy [ MacKay09 ]
2 GtC/y 8.4 GtC/y Atmosphere 600 Vegetation 700 Soils 3000 Accessible fossil fuels 1600 Ocean 40 000 Carbon flows (2006) [ MacKay09 ]
Goal: Contain warming to 2C Business As Usual: 850+ ppm CO 2 (likely > 5C) Copenhagen: 725 ppm (even chance > 5C) EU target: 550 ppm (slim chance < 2C; even chance > 3C) This talk target: 450 ppm (maybe < 2C) Today: 390 ppm James Hansen, NASA: 350 ppm (very likely < 2C) Pre-Oil (1900): 290 ppm [ IPCC07 ]
Non-Carbon* Options Photovoltaic Solar Thermal Wind Geothermal Hydroelectric Tidal Algae Fuel Nuclear
T H E F O O T P R I N T A N D H U M A N D E V E L O P M E N T Fig. 22: HUMAN DEVELOPMENT AND Sustainable development is a commitment Successful sustainable development States of America significantly increased ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT S , 2003 to “improving the quality of human life requires that the world, on average, meets their resource use while increasing their 12 while living within the carrying capacity of at a minimum these two criteria, with quality of life. This did not hold for poorer supporting ecosystems” (IUCN et al ., 1991). countries moving into the blue quadrant nations, notably China or India, where Countries’ progress towards sustainable shown in Figure 22. As world population significant increases in HDI were achieved 11 development can be assessed using the United grows, less biocapacity is available per while their per person footprints remained E x ceeds biosphere’s average capacity per person, Nations Development Programme’s (UNDP) person and the quadrant’s height shrinks. below global per person biocapacity. high development Human Development Index (HDI) as an In 2003, Asia-Pacific and Africa were Comparing a country’ s average per person 10 Threshold for high human development indicator of well-being, and the footprint as using less than world average per person footprint with global average biocapacity a measure of demand on the biosphere. The biocapacity, while the EU and North America does not presuppose equal sharing of 9 HDI is calculated from life expectancy, had crossed the threshold for high human resources. Rather it indicates which nations’ Ecological Footprint (2003 global hectare s per per s on) literacy and education, and per capita GDP . development. No region, nor the world as consumption patterns, if extended worldwide, UNDP considers an HDI value of more a whole, met both criteria for sustainable would continue global overshoot, and which 8 than 0.8 to be “high human development”. development. Cuba alone did, based on the would not. The footprint and the HDI need Meanwhile, a footprint lower than 1.8 global data it reports to the United Nations. Changes supplementing by other ecological and Au s tralia 7 United State s hectares per person, the average biocapacity in footprint and HDI from 1975 to 2003 are socioeconomic measures – freshwater of America available per person on the planet, could illustrated here for some nations. During this scarcity and civic engagement, for example – denote sustainability at the global level. period, wealthy nations such as the United to more fully define sustainable development. 6 5 4 Hungary E x ceeds biosphere’s average capacity per person, low development 3 South Africa, Rep. Italy Korea, World average biocapacity available per person, ignoring the needs of wild species 2 Rep. Brazil Within biosphere’s average capacity Meets minimum criteria China 1 India per person, low development for sustainability 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 Human Development Index North America Middle Ea s t and Central A s ia Country population (coloured by region) : Historical trends for named selected countries Europe EU (2003 dot coloured by region and s ized by population) : A s ia-Pacific Europe Non-EU 100 million– 30 million– 10 million– 5 million – le ss than More than 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2003 Africa Latin America and 1 billion 100 million 30 million 10 million 5 million 1 billion the Caribbean LIVING PLANET REPORT 2006
“We are grossly wasting our energy resources and other precious raw materials as though their supply was infinite. We must even face the prospect of changing our basic ways of living. This change will either be made on our own initiative in a planned and rational way, or forced on us with chaos and suffering by the inexorable laws of nature.” [Carter74]
RESEARCH AGENDA
Network Structure Reevaluation Integration Components & Tools
NETWORK STRUCTURE
Q1 : What do standards look like post-peak? What role do standards bodies such as IANA and IETF play? Q2 : What cost sharing mechanisms can be feasibly deployed to offload a substantial portion of the true cost of a network service onto its user? Q3 : What does the programming model for a fully-distributed datacenter-less cloud look like? Q4 : What are the necessary security / reputation / replication mechanisms to create a fully-distributed social network platform? Q5 : As networks become more localized, the cost and latency of communicating with far away nodes will be higher than it is today. How will we cope with this? Q6 : How might we carefully guide this structural transition (transferring management from the core to the edges), instead of allowing it to descend haphazardly?
REEVALUATION
Q7 : Can we develop a common methodology for calculating the emergy of a network device? Q8 : Can we measure which existing projects in energy-efficient networking are well-suited to the post-peak world and which are “greenwashed”? Q9 : When do free network services become infeasible due to energy costs? Q10 : How can network protocols be best redesigned to cope with post-peak volatility? Q11 : How can existing software implementations of network protocols be repurposed without modification? Q12 : When is it the case that software upgrades, while using old hardware, are preferable to upgrading to a more resource-efficient hardware platform?
INTEGRATION
Q13 : Given increased transportation costs, can we encourage more video conferencing adoption by incorporating computer vision techniques into video streaming protocols to augment the video? Q14 : Can computer network protocols and algorithms be applied to transportation networks (or vice versa) so as to improve their overall efficiency? Q15 : Using today's architecture, how can we enable and promote a systematic way of leveraging cross-layer and network-internal knowledge at end points? Q16 : What are the economic incentive models for a demand / congestion-pricing system for a post-peak Internet? Q17 : How will the economics of network misbehavior (spam, DoS, etc.) change post-peak? Q18 : How can a secure, peer-to-peer localized microlending system be built?
COMPONENTS AND TOOLS
Q19 : How can network switches and routers be built to passively (not actively) perform forwarding? Q20 : How might technology costs and energy trends change with respect to in-network storage, and when will it become unviable? Q21 : How can a long-term network-attached data archival service be designed to provide persistence and proof of storage? Q22 : Can we develop a “currency” for local network bandwidth sharing?
Nine Challenges of Alternative Energy 1. Scalability and Timing 2. Commercialization 3. Substitutability 4. Material Input Requirements 5. Intermittency 6. Energy Density 7. Water 8. The Law of Receding Horizons 9. Energy Return on Investment [Fridley10]
Catton’s Modes of Adaptation Adaptation Circumstance Consequence Name Carrying Reorganize capacity within finite exceeded limits Recognition of Accepted Accepted Realism major changes Faith in technological Accepted Disregarded Cargoism progress Mitigation is Partially Disregarded Cosmeticism enough Accepted No problems or Disregarded Disregarded Cynicism solutions No limits Denied Denied Ostrichism [Catton80]
Peak Oil matters because of Flows Consumers need delivery flows Reserves are only useful as flows Peak oil is when flows can’t meet the demand The oil industry is slow moving and predictable Flows can be geologically constrained (North Sea) Flows can be politically constrained (Russia, Saudi Arabia) Flows can be physically constrained (Nigeria) Flows can be skills constrained (old engineers) Flows can be capital or access constrained (Mexico, Venezuela) Many talk of reserves and ignore flows Others talk about access and ignore flows [Skrebowski11]
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