How Broadband and Internet can help reduce global warming Bill St. Arnaud CANARIE Inc – www.canarie.ca Bill.st.arnaud@canarie.ca Unless otherwise noted all material in this slide deck may be reproduced, modified or distributed without prior permission of the author
The Climate Change Imperative > One of , if not, the greatest threat to our future society and economy is global warming. > 15-30% cut in greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 will be needed to keep the temperature increase under 2 ° C, and a deeper reduction by 60-80% may be needed by 2050.* > Past IPCC assessments have underestimated the pace of change > Latest data indicates we are at the high end of projections > It will be necessary to go beyond incremental improvements in energy efficiency, current life-styles and business practices. Significantly more drastic measures will need to be undertaken *International Panel on Climate Change
Our Challenge 26 tons/person j 2 tons/person 1 ton/person j j 2008 2050 2100 Source: Stern 2008
ICT and CO2 emissions* > It is estimated that the ICT industry alone produces CO2 emissions that is equivalent to the carbon output of the entire aviation industry. > ICT emissions growth fastest of any sector in society, doubling about every 4 years > One small computer server generates as much carbon dioxide as a SUV with a fuel efficiency of 15 miles per gallon > Average utilization of servers is less than 6%. > Typical university produces 200,000 – 500,000 metric tons CO2 per year of which 100,000 – 300,000 tons is from Cyber- infrastructure and ICT *An Inefficient Truth: http://www.globalactionplan.org.uk/event_detail.aspx?eid=2696e0e0-28fe-4121-bd36-3670c02eda49
University GHG emissions � Projected GHGs are based on Planned Growth in Ten Year Capital Plan Source: SFU Facilities Services ��� ENERGY MANAGEMENT 1965 - 2008
CI major cause of GHG emissions TASC2 Research Building ���
UCSD Greenhouse Gas Emission Measuring Our Footprint
The Problem > Compute energy/rack : 2 kW (2000) to 30kW today > Cooling and power issues now a major factor in CI design > But academic CI is often too small: departmental closets and server huggers > Energy use of departmental facilities is growing exponentially creating crises of space, power, and cooling > Unfortunately, almost nothing is known about how to make these shared virtual clusters energy efficient, since there has been no financial motivation to do so *Source: Tom DeFanti GreenLight
Why ICT and Internet is critical to reducing CO2 > Direct emissions of Internet and ICT are important at 2-3% of world emissions but, in order of impact, the most significant contribution we can make is through leveraged, or indirect, emissions reductions. > According to SMART 2020 these represent as much as a 15% reduction opportunity in global emissions. > (And SMART 2020 is one of the most conservative reports on the topic. Others identify even higher potential for savings).
Virtualization and De-materialization Source: European Commission Joint Research Centre, “The Future Impact of ICTs on Environmental Sustainability”, August 2004
Universities and regional optical networks are key > Bits and optical bandwidth are virtually carbon free > Optical networks (as opposed to electronic routed networks) have much smaller carbon footprint > Significant reduced CO2 impacts are possible through use of cyber-infrastructure tools like virtualization, clouds, SOA, grids, Web 2.0, etc. > Research needed in new “zero carbon” computer and network architectures needed to connect remote computers, databases and instruments will be essential > New zero carbon applications and “gCommerce”
Energy consumption versus GHG emissions > Number one problem facing the planet is climate change – Lots of confusion between Green IT, energy consumption, energy efficiency, Clean ICT, sustainable IT, Corporate social responsibility > Turning off the lights or computers may not be the answer – Also misleads people into thinking problem is easy to solve > Our focus should be on how ICT can reduce GHG emissions – NOT energy consumption or energy efficiency – NOT Clean ICT such as computer waste etc – NOT sustainable IT – NOT Corporate Social Responsibility
The Falsehood of Energy Efficiency > Lots of confusion between energy efficiency and consumption versus CO2 emissions > Most current approaches to reduce carbon footprint are focused on increased energy efficiency of equipment and processes > This approach is doomed to failure because of Khazzoom- Brookes postulate (aka Jevons paradox) – Greater energy efficiency reduces overall cost and therefore promotes increased usage > We need a “zero carbon” strategy because increased usage due to decreased cost from efficiency will not change emission equation – Anything times zero is zero
The Carbon Economy > Global carbon market expected to grow 58% in 2008 to $92 billion > $57 trillion - Carbon Disclosure Project signatories, 1000s of companies participating, expanding to supply chain accounting > $500 billion - Value of low-carbon energy markets by 2050 > $100 billion - Demand for projects generating GHG emissions credits by 2030 > UK carbon abatement is estimated to be 900m Euro > Carbon economy has potential to pay for several bank bail- out’s and 3 or 4 Iraq like wars Source: ClimateCheck
What does a price of $100 per tonne of CO 2 imply? • $40 more on a barrel of crude oil • $1.00 more on US gallon of gas ( � 0.20 on a litre of petrol) • $.08/kwh more on electricity from coal •Effectively doubling price of electricity from coal • $0.03/kwh more on electricity from gas • $100 more on a return air ticket from New York to Chicago Sources: Dr Chris Hope, Cambridge
Primer on the Carbon Economy • In general, there are two types of emission trading schemes: • Cap and Trade • Baseline and Credit • Emission trading schemes can be: • Regulated (mandated by a government or regional authority) • Voluntary (entered into on an individual transaction basis, or though ongoing contractual arrangements) • To participate in carbon market you must join a registry • ACX – Australian Climate Exchange Source: ClimateCheck
How the carbon economy works Voluntary and Regulated Markets – Open System GHG emission reduction calculated as the difference between the actual emissions from an activity and the emissions of the projects baseline scenario Baseline GHG Emissions Year 1 Year 2 Actual GHG Emissions through use Year 3 of ICT, etc Time Source: ClimateCheck
Baseline and Credit • GHG projects create credits by either: • Reducing the amount of GHG emissions released to the atmosphere from one or more GHG sources, or • Increasing the amount of GHG removed from the atmosphere. • For ICT sector most emission reductions are indirect (Scope 2) through the reduction in consumption of electricity • Amount of credit available depends on type of fossil fuel used to generate electrical power (coal, gas, oil, etc) and whether it is base load or peak load • Credits are purchased by emitters in voluntary markets for reasons including corporate social responsibility, green branding, and carbon neutral product claims Source: ClimateCheck
“Zero Carbon” Data Centers can provide significant carbon credits > Purchasing green power locally is expensive with significant transmission line losses – Demand for green power within cities expected to grow dramatically – If data center produces 200,000 mT of CO2 @ $100 per ton =$20m > Data center facilities DON’T NEED TO BE LOCATED IN CITIES – -Cooling also a major problem in cities AISO Solar Powered Data Islandia GigaCenter Data Center, California Digital Data Archive Kelowna, BC Iceland
Your carbon inventory 14062 life cycle operation 5 years coal > Optical Switch 4 tons 20 tons > Router 16 tons 500 tons > Optical Amplifiers 2 tons 40 tons > Computer server 12 tons 40 tons > Ethernet switch 8 tons 20 tons > PC 20 tons 5 tons > Travel to install and repair - 100 tons > Virtualized network and computers can save 50% of your carbon emissions!
Do your carbon inventory NOW!! > You can not earn credits until you do an inventory and calculate baseline emissions > Next year carbon cap price will be $100 per ton in Europe > At European cap price the cost of GHG emission could be as much $10 - $50 million per year for university in the next decade This is money that must be paid into a carbon trust or exchange – A lot depends on details of Australia’s cap and trade – > Conversely university could earn $10 - $50 million per year if a university is zero carbon No revenue potential if university is carbon neutral –
American College & University President’s Climate Commitment “Signatories agree to… Create institutional structures Select & implement tangible actions to reduce greenhouse gases Complete a comprehensive greenhouse gas inventory Develop a climate-neutral action plan Make information publicly available”
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