Hindsight – The Key to Effective Foresight Edmonton Canadian Club Centennial Presented by John R. McDougall December 13, 2006
Past – Present – Future 1854 – 1928 1907 – 1997 1973 – 1975 – 1882 – 1952 1945 – 1977 –
W i n d a n d W a t e r P o w e r A Short History of Nearly Everything Paper Developed LONG WAVES ACHIEVEMENTS TECHNOLOGY 1400 Printing Press 1600 Hudson Bay Company established Steam Engine INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION 1800 E l e c t r o - m a g n e t i c I n d u c t i o n B a b b a g e D i f f e r e n c e E n g i n e R A I L W A Y S Telegraphy Fuel Cell M e n d e l L a w s o f G e n e t i c s Electric Power Int Comb S T E E L & E L E C T R I C I T Y 1900 W i r e l e s s Powered flight A u t o m a t i c T e l E x c h a n g e L i n e a r M a p o f G e n e s C o m m e r c i a l R a d i o A U T O , P E T R O L , R O A D S ENIAC Computer Nuclear Energy 1950 T r a n s i s t o r S p u t n i k I n t e g r a t e d C i r c u i t s A R P A N E T M I C R O - P R O C E S S O R V i r u s G e n o m e S e q u e n c e d P C i n t r o d u c e d I n t e r n e t F i r s t C l o n e d M a m m a l 2000 Human Genome Sequenced BIO/NANO
Old Fort Garry - Winnipeg
The Great Lone Land – Fort Edmonton 1870
1876 Dear Lovisa, It is a funny life I lead. I do my own trading with the Indians, going once or twice a week to sell goods and bring back furs. The way they use dogs here is to hitch up four, one ahead of another, to a flat sleigh about 12 feet long and a foot wide. On this I strap my load and away I go, running beside it all the way, through woods, over hills, down and up deep ravines, across creeks and lakes until I reach the Indian camps. I can speak Cree pretty well now, so I get on with them splendidly. Sometimes I don't reach the Indians the first night, and have to camp out in the woods all alone. I cut dry wood to make a fire, scrape the snow away and get some willows to spread on the ground for my bed. Then I melt snow to make some tea and have my supper. After that, I sit by the fire and think of you, and home. It is very lonesome. Everything is so still, except the occasional howl of a wolf or a lynx, or the cry of some night bird.
McDougall Make Edmonton Home 1879
Edmonton Agricultural Fair
Economic Value Proposition ROLE Any Job Low End High End Value Added INNOVATION INNOVATION Manufacturing Manufacturing PLUS Manufacturing PLAYER Under developed regions Lesser “developed” regions Highly Global leaders developed regions STRATEGY COPY PRODUCTION VALUE LEADERSHIP EFFICIENCY CREATION COMPETITIVE Cost Quality and cost (Value) Innovation Foresight ADVANTAGE Models Innovation Insight and Systems Opportunity Culture OUTCOME Income Wealth Quality of Life Sustainable development Moving to an innovation plus economy requires a substantial increase in technology and product development and technology commercialization.
A village emerges by 1885 Original McDougall store
Response to the CPR � In 1890 the Board of Trade and the Edmonton Agricultural Society published a small pamphlet. It contained a note to immigrants and articles on where farming paid best, where returns were most certain, where the soil was most fertile, where the climate was most healthful, where land could be easily secured and why there was no railway. It described artificial conditions, natural conditions and social conditions. It told of the Edmonton district, its farm products, stock, game, fish, timber, minerals, scenery, settlement, trade prospects, the means of communication, railway prospects, why to locate now and who should come. It wound up with a short sketch of 15 or 20 of the best farmers, who they were, where they came from, when they settled here, what they had when they came and what they had now.
Klondyke Gold Rush
Low Level Bridge Replaces Ferry
And success follows
Empire Building � Edmonton’s first modern multi- story building opens in 1963 and triggers downtown re- development.
McDougall for Mayor
A “Thank-you” from the Citizens The street railway system is an accomplished fact, the new power plant is in operation, street paving has been completed on a comprehensive scale, the septic tank is ready for operation; many more important projects have now come to fulfilment. - Edmonton Bulletin, Dec 1908
One factor that has pushed Edmonton into the forefront is the united action of the people all working together for the common good. We have done away with all sectional lines, and we have no religious or race differences. Our population is increasing rapidly, and we welcome all who prove themselves to be good citizens.
Edmonton 2005
An Alberta Scenario for 2050 Oil sands production 9 m bpd � Revenues $500 million per day. � GHG production between 500,000 and 1 million tonnes per day. � Potential water demands half the low flow of the Athabasca River. � Direct employment 150,000, total employment 600,000. � Provincial population 5 million. � Waste water and solid waste more than doubles. � Demand for electric power probably triples. � Basic services stressed � South of Red Deer, water is already fully allocated. � Surface and air transport capacity will need to double. � Education capacity must expand substantially. � Demographic changes and income disparities. � Immigration drives social and cultural change. � High incomes and transient labour increases crime and violence. �
Integrated Agricultural Industrial Products Complex - AGRIPLEX Wheat 118,000 MT Ethanol 35,000 MT Ethanol Plant Refinery/Retail 47,000 ha DDGS 42,000 MT Biosolids 36,000 MT Heat & Power Barley 78,000 MT Manure 180,000 MT Methane 4582 mcf Methanol Plant 26,000 ha Feedlot IMUS Methanol 8186 MT Meal 148,000 MT Heat & Power Heat & Power Glycerol F e e d F a t Oilseed 222,000 MT Biodiesel 88,000 MT Oil 89,000 MT 132,000 ha Crushing Plant Biodiesel Plant Refinery/Retail A 25 km land radius can support this infrastructure. Increasing the land area by 30 % to account for yield variations requires 30 km radius.
Zero Emission City Zero Effluent – Zero Landfill Wastewater Solids Stream Liquid Stream Gold Bar Wastewater Treatment Plant Membrane Plant Digester Nutrient Extraction Renewable Natural Gas Nutrients Industrial Process Water Compost Plant Gasifier Biosolids Curbside Waste Renewable Natural Gas
Integrated CO2 and bio-products manufacturing - ICBM 200 mtpyCO 2 Fertilizer N, P, H2O Hydrogen Methane Fertilizers Animal feeds Bio-fuels Biopolymers Bio-prods Carbonates Natural Health Prods Chemicals
Bio-fibre – Value-Added Processing Fine Chemicals Increasing Value Food additives Composites Nutraceuticals Plastics Paper Fuel Additives Bldg Mtls OSB/MDF Fibre Fuels Strawboard Commodity Low Value Medium Value High Value
Conclusion � “Of Edmonton, the centre of such a province, the gateway to the Peace River Country and that of the great north land stretching to the arctic Ocean and from which so much may reasonably be expected, no one doubts ... or predicts anything but a great future for our city.” John A McDougall, 1918
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