HINDSIGHT IS 2020, FORESIGHT ISN’T Darryl Moodley 4 November 2020 Insurance | Financial Planning | Retirement | Investments | Wealth
2019 VS 2020 COVID-19 US-China Trade war Slowing Eskom Brexit growth
COVID-19: WHERE ARE WE NOW? Source: John Hopkins
COUNTRIES THAT SUFFERED SOURCE: FINANCIAL TIMES (2020)
WHAT DO THE BOOKIES THINK? Source: Oddschecker
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 115.0 110.0 105.0 100.0 95.0 90.0 85.0 2019:Q1 2019:Q2 2019:Q3 2019:Q4 2020:Q1 2020:Q2 2020:Q3 2020:Q4 2021:Q1 2021:Q2 2021:Q3 2021:Q4 World Advanced Economies Emerging market and developing economies excluding China China SOURCE: IMF ESTIMATES
TECH BILLIONAIRES NET WORTH RISES EXPONENTIALLY
“Covid -19 did not destroy our economy. We’re trying to recover from decades of bad governance and poor ANC policies, and it is disingenuous and opportunistic to try to claim otherwise. We were in junk status long before anyone had heard of the word coronavirus.” – President Cyril Ramaphosa ‘ As I have called on other sectors that are key to our economy, let us use the opportunity presented by the pandemic to build back better.’ – President Cyril Ramaphosa
DEBT RATIO SCENARIOS
FISCAL MEASURES TO FIGHT COVID-19 Fiscal stimulus as a % of GDP 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Turkey Mexico India Russia Saudi Arabia Indonesia France Argentina Korea Spain Italy China South Africa Canada United Kingdom Brazil Australia Germany Japan United States Additional spending and forgone revenue Loans, equity, and guarantees SOURCE: NATIONAL AUTHORITIES, IMF STAFF ESTIMATES (JUNE 2020 UPDATE)
THE REPO RATE 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 12/12/2008 12/12/2009 12/12/2010 12/12/2011 12/12/2012 12/12/2013 12/12/2014 12/12/2015 12/12/2016 12/12/2017 12/12/2018 12/12/2019 SOURCE: SARB (2020)
FTSE/JSE ALL SHARE AS AT 2 NOV 2020
IT’S CLEAR AS DAYLIGHT YTD 1 year 3 year 5 year 60% 40% 24.3% 20% 14.6% 14.3% 12.6% 11.7% 11.0% 9.5% 8.5% 7.5% 7.1% 7.3% 6.8% 5.9% 4.7% 4.9% 2.7% 2.2% 0% -1.3% -5.8% -7.1% -14.7% -20% -26.5% -40% -50.9% -51.6% -60% SA Equity SA Bonds SA Property SA Cash Global Equity Global Bonds AS AT 30 SEPTEMBER 2020
PERFORMANCE 1 year 3 year Sanlam Lifestage Accumulation Sanlam Lifestage Accumulation 1.0% 2.8% Volatility Protection Strategy Volatility Protection Strategy 5.0% 5.8% Sanlam Blue Lifestage Sanlam Blue Lifestage 0.7% 2.7% Accumulation Accumulation Passive Lifestage Accumulation Passive Lifestage Accumulation 0.7% 2.7% Sanlam Stable Bonus Portfolio Sanlam Stable Bonus Portfolio 6.2% 7.1% Sanlam Monthly Bonus Fund 5.6% Sanlam Monthly Bonus Fund 6.5% 0% 10% 20% 0% 10% 20% GROSS AS AT 30 SEPTEMBER 2020
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