Higher Education Policy Institute Events UKs only HE think tank - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Higher Education Policy Institute Events • UK’s only HE think tank Reports • Supported by most UK unis and many corporates • As a charity, strictly non-partisan Intell Politicians, civil servants, university managers, governors, the media etc

About me • HEPI Director since 2014 • Formerly Special Adviser to the Minister for Universities • Academic research on the history of student finance • Previously a History teacher & ran a pre-university course • Attended three universities (Manc, Cambridge, QMW)

Keeping abreast of topical issues

Just since 2015, the busiest ever time for HE policy? • Coalition, majority & minority Govts • Teaching policy from BIS to DfE • Green paper, White paper, Bill & Act • BIS becomes BEIS • End of HEFCE / new Office for Students • Changes to student funding • End of Offa / new DFAP • Changes to research funding • Launch of UK Research & Investment • Lots of Select Cttee investigations • Teaching Excellence Framework • Pensions strike • EU referendum • Migration Advisory Cttee review • Two Prime Ministers • ONS review of classification of loans • More intense media coverage • Augar

2016 Source: The Daily Telegraph

Everything in flux: 5 Ministers in 5 years Oxford, Cambridge, Oxford, Oxford, Oxford, PPE Economics History PPE History

Best option would be to re-set the dial by sharing policy responsibility for migration, especially student migration across Whitehall

Non-UK students coming here to study after Brexit

Cluster 1 Cluster 2 Cluster 3 Cluster 4 67 institutions 17 institutions 2 institutions 39 institutions (former 1994 Group, (mainly post-1992; (mainly pre-1992; Russell University Alliance, University Alliance, (Oxford & Cambridge) Group and/or former 1994 Million+, Guild HE and Million+, Guild HE and Group, and unaffiliated) unaffiliated) unaffiliated) Cluster 1 Cluster 2 Cluster 3 Cluster 4 Total (2 institutions) (39 institutions) (67 institutions) (17 institutions) (125 institutions) Average change in students (per institution) and total students affected (total column) EU (402) (-37%) (467) (-68%) (162) (-48%) (83) (-42%) (31,290) (-57%) Non-EU - - - - - Average change in fee income (per institution, in £m) EU £5.8m (£0.6m) (£0.3m) (£0.3m) (£0.3m) Non-EU - - - - Total change in fee income (per cluster, in £m) EU £11.6m (£23.1m) (£23.2m) (£4.8m) (£39.5m) Non-EU - - - - - Total £11.6m (£23.1m) (£23.2m) (£4.8m) (£39.5m)

Cluster 1 Cluster 2 Cluster 3 Cluster 4 Total (2 institutions) (39 institutions) (67 institutions) (17 institutions) (125 institutions) Average change in students (per institution) and total students affected (total column) EU 123 (11%) 72 (11%) 30 (9%) 11 (5%) 5,282 (10%) Non-EU 241 (11%) 224 (9%) 75 (8%) 12 (4%) 14,455 (9%) Average change in fee income (per institution, in £m) EU £0.8m £0.4m £0.2m £0.1m £0.3m Non-EU £4.5m £3.5m £0.7m £0.1m £1.5m Total change in fee income (per cluster, in £m) EU £1.5m £17.1m £12m £1.1m £31.7m Non-EU £8.9m £135m £49.1m £ 1.8m £194.8m Total £10.4m £152.1m £61.1m £2.8m £226.4m

Cluster 1 Cluster 2 Cluster 3 Cluster 4 Total (2 institutions) (39 institutions) (67 institutions) (17 institutions) (125 institutions) Average change in students (per institution) and total students affected (total column) EU (280) (-26%) (394) (-57%) (132) (-39%) (73) (-36%) (26,008) (-47%) Non-EU 241 (11%) 224 (9%) 75 (8%) 12 (4%) 14,455 (9%) Average change in fee income (per institution, in £m) EU £6.6m (£0.2m) (£0.2m) (£0.2m) (£0.1m) Non-EU £4.5m £3.5m £0.7m £0.1m £1.5m Total change in fee income (per cluster, in £m) EU £13.2m (£6.1m) (£11.2m) (£3.7m) (£7.9m) Non-EU £8.9m £135m £49.1m £1.8m £194.8m Total £22.1m £128.9m £37.9m (£1.9m) £186.9m

Fees Non-fee Visitors TOTAL Benefits EU overall £1.7 billion £3.2 billion £0.2 billion £5.1 billion EU per student £29k £55k £3k £87k Non-EU overall £9.0 billion £8.1 billion £0.4 billion £17.5 billion Non-EU per £52k £47k £2k £102k student TOTAL £10.7 billion £11.3 billion £0.6 billion £22.6 billion

Grants Student Other TOTAL Costs support EU overall £0.1 billion £0.1 billion £0.9 billion £5.1 billion EU per student £2k £2k £15k £19k Non-EU overall £0.0 billion £0.0 billion £1.2 billion £17.5 billion Non-EU per £0k £0k £7k £7k student TOTAL £0.1 billion £0.1 billion £2.1 billion £2.3 billion

Fees vs Non-fee vs Visitors vs TOTAL Net grants £ support other costs EU overall £1.6 billion £3.1 billion -£0.7 billion £4.0 billion EU per student £27k £53k -£12k £68k Non-EU overall £9.0 billion £8.1 billion -£0.8 billion £16.3 billion Non-EU per £52k £47k -£5k £95k student TOTAL £10.6 billion £11.2 billion -£1.5 billion £20.3 billion

Maidenhead Witney Islington N Sheff C £14.7m £13.4m £62.5m £226.0 m

South West Surrey: £21.9 million

Uxbridge and South Ruislip: £93.8 million

2019: Post-study work rights Post-study work restrictions announced

What are the post-graduation labour market benefits generated by international students? £ per graduate Total benefits, £m Tax type EU Non-EU Average EU Non-EU Total Income Tax £36,000 £34,000 £35,000 £388m £655m £1,043m Employee NICs £24,000 £23,000 £24,000 £266m £449m £716m Employer NICs £28,000 £27,000 £27,000 £306m £516m £822m VAT £20,000 £20,000 £20,000 £220m £372m £592m Total £108,000 £104,000 £106,000 £1,181m £1,992m £3,173m Note: Average values per graduate are rounded to the nearest £1,000 and are weighted by the respective total number of graduates in UK employment over the 10-year period post- graduation. Total values are rounded to the nearest £1m. All estimates are presented in 2016/17 prices and discounted to net present values. Totals may not add up due to rounding. Source: London Economics’ analysis

How do international and UK graduates’ earnings compare – by subject? Median earnings of graduates with undergraduate degrees five years after graduation (in 2015/16), by domicile and subject studied In regulated labour markets  £75,000 (Health/Education) , we would expect to see limited differences in the Maths £65,000 Medicine earnings between the different graduates. £55,000 Economics In more deregulated markets , wage  ICT £45,000 gaps can emerge, and we would Nursing expect these gaps to widen where £35,000 skills shortage are greatest. We assume that graduates enter  £25,000 occupations that are linked to their Education degree subject area – though we £15,000 know that this is not always true. UK EU Non-EU

What was the impact of the change in post-study work visa arrangements?  The red ‘triangle’ illustrates the impact of the post-study work visa % of international graduates with UG degrees in restrictions – i.e. we assessed what might be the total Exchequer sustained UK employment – by year post-graduation contribution made by international graduates if the proportion of non- and domicile EU graduates entering the UK labour market one and three years post- 40% graduation had remained stable (at 14% , same as 5 years post- 35% graduation). 30% 28%  28% 28% Labour market participation would be at least 5 percentage points 27% 25% 24% higher one year post graduation and 4 percentage points higher three 25% 22% 21% years post graduation …. all of which has resulted in lost Exchequer 19% 20% 18% income. 15% 16% 16%  15% This loss was estimated to be £150 million per cohort 15% 14% 14% 10% 12% 10% 9% 9% 5% 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Years after graduation EU Non-EU 26

New target of £35 billion Value of educational exports (£billion) education exports by 2030, 35 with 600k international HE 30 20 21 21 22 23 24 25 27 28 29 30 31 33 34 35 30 21 24 26 28 students, by 2035. 25 • Less ambitious than 20 16 17 17 18 19 19 20 previous target 19 15 • Slower growth than in 10 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 other countries • But faster growth than Actual Planned in 2015 Planned now current trajectory

Responding to the International Education Strategy 1. The welcome new targets will be missed without new policies – especially a competitive post-study work offer 2. Home Office must share responsibility for student migration with other Government Departments, as elsewhere 3. The net migration target should be put out of its misery

The Student Academic Experience Survey • 14,000+ full-time undergraduates • Running since 2006 • HEPI / Advance HE / YouthSight project • Continuity and change: • Best data on vfm, workload, wellbeing • New questions this year on 2-year degrees, disclosure & preparedness