Heavy Precipitation in Europe under Climate Change Katrin Nissen - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Heavy Precipitation in Europe under Climate Change Katrin Nissen - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Heavy Precipitation in Europe under Climate Change Katrin Nissen Spring Campus Institut fr Meteorologie Berlin Freie Universitt Berlin March 2017 www.rain-project.eu This project has received funding from the European Unions Seventh

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This project has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no 608166. The contents

  • f this presentation are the author's views. The European Union is not liable for any use that may be made
  • f the information contained therein.

Heavy Precipitation in Europe under Climate Change

Spring Campus Berlin March 2017 Katrin Nissen Institut für Meteorologie Freie Universität Berlin www.rain-project.eu

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The RAIN Project

Heavy Precipitation

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Outline

  • What is (heavy) precipitation?
  • Which thresholds are relevant?
  • Data and Methodology
  • Present day climate
  • Climate change
  • Summary

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What is Precipitation?

Precipitation = Rain Drizzle Sleet Snow Graupel Hail evaporation → moist air cold moist air

→ condensation

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cooling

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Types of mid-latitude precipitation

warm air cold air

Orography:

  • humid air is forced to rise at mountain ridge
  • stationary

Fronts:

  • warm and cold air masses collide (at the warm

and cold fronts of cyclones)

  • warm air is forced to rise
  • large scale

Convection:

  • summer
  • air warmed by sun
  • evaporation and rising motion
  • small scale, short duration

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Heavy precipitation

warm air cold air

1: High atmospheric moisture content 2a: Rapid lifting high intensity 2b: Stationarity and moisture convergence high amount

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Which thresholds are relevant?

Stakeholder inteviews Regulations for drainage systems 10-year return values amount intensity

50-100 mm/day 20-30 mm/hour 2, 5,10, 50, 100 year return period

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Effects on Infrastructure

8 Berliner Morgenpost Thomas Schubert Spiegel online Christian Charisius/Archiv

High amounts High intensities

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Data

REGIONAL MODEL DRIVING GCM RCA4 RACMO22E CCLM4-8-17 HIRHAM5 WRF331F MPI-ESM day, 3 hour day EC-EARTH day, 3 hour day, 3 hour day day HADGEM2 day, 3 hour day, 3 hour day CM5A-MR day, 3 hour day CM5 day, 3 hour day

daily: 13 simulations 3-hourly: 7 simulations

Climate change:

EURO-CORDEX 0.11° (~12 km) Scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5

Present day:

  • E-OBS gridded observational
  • ERA-Int downscaled by EURO-CORDEX regional models
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Greenhouse gas scenarios

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RCP8.5 RCP6 RCP4.5 RCP2.6 ~“Paris Agreement”

From: Knutti & Sedlaček (2013)

time 

Concentration increase Temperature response

RCP8.5 RCP4.5

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Detection of events Areas affected by heavy precipitation (amount and intensity) are tracked in time and space Information about

  • duration
  • size
  • severity (duration, size and amount)

1 1 2 4 3

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Example August 2002

Duration: 5 days Area: 185 000 km2 Severity: 50 (99th percentile of all events)

Precipitation exceeding 10-year return level (mm)

12 www.pirna.de

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daily (high amounts) 3-hourly (high intensities) 10-year return level (1981-2010)

Present-day climate

mm/day mm/3hours

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Present-day climate

Number of events per decade exceeding 10-year return values. Events with durations between 1-3 days. 1971-2000

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Summer Winter

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daily (high amounts) 3-hourly (high intensities) 10-year return level (1971-2000)

Present-day climate in the simulations

mm/day mm/3hours

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High Amounts High Intensities

(accumulation 1-3 days) (3-hourly)

2021-2050 2071-2100 2021-2050 2071-2100

RCP4.5 Climate change signal

Difference in number of events to 1971-2000

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High Amounts High Intensities

(accumulation 1-3 days) (3-hourly)

2021-2050 2071-2100 2021-2050 2071-2100

RCP8.5 Climate change signal

Difference in number of events to 1971-2000

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High Amounts High Intensities

Present day RCP8.5 2071-2100

Central Europe Iberian Peninsula

seasonal cycle size seasonal cycle size

Climate change signal Please note:

This is the climate change signal for extreme precipitation. The climate change signal for annual mean precipitation is different!

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Climate change annual mean precipitation

From: Jacob et al. 2014

change between 1971-2000 and 2071-2100 EURO-Cordex ensemble

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Thunderstorms

Present day Change between 1971-2000 and 2071-2100 RCP8.5 scenario

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Hail

Present day Change between 1971-2000 and 2071-2100 RCP8.5 scenario

Hail > 2cm

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Summary

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  • High intensity and high amounts are of relevance
  • Legislation usually specifies return periods
  • Increase in heavy precipitation predicted for most

European regions: water vapour content can be higher in warmer air number of severe events increases

  • Signal especially strong for high intensity events