Classification: Confidential Heathrow Area Transport Forum (HATF) Autumn 2019 Wider Forum Event Classification: Confidential
Classification: Confidential Welcome, Introductions and Overview of HATF Val Shawcross CBE, HATF Chair Classification: Confidential
Classification: Confidential The role of the Independent Chair • Leads the HATF Board and HATF Wider Forum group, ensuring it is effective in: • Reaching, and articulating, a clear collective HATF position • Delivering its strategic objectives • Effectively performing and executing its responsibilities – including those outlined in the Airports National Policy Statement. • Ensures that the HATF provides robust challenge to Heathrow with regards to its performance against defined surface access targets • Monitors Heathrow’s performance in relation to the implementation of its Surface Access Strategy and delivery of the associated surface access targets and delivery plans. • Discusses, debates and influences strategic issues facing airport in relation to Surface Classification: Confidential
Classification: Confidential Who is currently on our Board • Val Shawcross , HATF Chair. • Anthony Smith , CEO, Transport Focus. • Cllr Keith Glazier , TfSE Chair, Transport for the South East. • David Lutton , Executive Director, London First. • Graham Vidler , Chief Executive, Confederation of Passenger Transport. • Kris Beuret , Non-Executive Director, Transport & Environment Group, Heathrow Community Engagement Board (HCEB). • Mark Frost , Head of Transport & Environmental Strategy, London Borough of Hounslow Council. • Richard Anderson , Chair, Airline Consultative Committee. • Robert Windsor , Policy & Compliance Manager and Executive Director, British International Freight Association. • Rupert Walker , Strategy and Planning Director (South), Network Rail. • Wayne King , Unite. • Tony Caccavone , Director of Surface Access, Heathrow • Shamal Ratnayaka , Aviation Strategy Lead, Transport for London (TfL) • Christian Wolmar , Trustee, London Cycling Campaign • Kathy Slack, CEO, Enterprise M3 Classification: Confidential
Classification: Confidential HATF Work to Date • Two board meetings and today’s full forum event • The Board has explored together the realism of plans and proposals to provide additional high capacity rail services to Heathrow - • Southern Rail Access, • Western Rail Access, • Intensification and upgrade of Piccadilly line services, • The impact of HS2 and the planned interchange at Old Oak Common Classification: Confidential
Classification: Confidential HATF Work Programme HATF Main Board Wider Forum Special Interest Group 2019 September 17 th 2019 October (2 nd Oct) October Public Transport (high capacity / rail) Wider forum launch Data modelling and capacity event: October 24 th 2019 Customer services Modal shift (car) / air quality Disability access Local Transport overview (bus/coach) Smart travel Modal shift November 21 st 2019 Budget and Funding Feedback from data modelling and capacity Assessment case and potential phasing 2020 31 st March 2020 January January Monitoring Wider forum event Active Travel (special seminar event) February February Construction Freight Statement of Common Ground Classification: Confidential
Classification: Confidential Agenda Item Owner 1 Welcome, introductions and overview of HATF: Val Shawcross CBE Purpose, Objectives, Role of HATF Board HATF Chair 2 Section One: The Challenges Kris Beuret and Anthony Smith Passenger Information and Accessibility Mark Frost and Shamal Ratnayaka Modal shift and transport related air quality issues 3 Interactive Q & A 4 Section Two: Delivering the Surface Access Masterplan by Heathrow Surface James Cornelius Access Strategy Team Christopher Casey Nicola Jones Interactive Q & A 5 Networking Lunch and opportunity to visit the Cycle hub 6 Section Three: Scrutiny workshops Kris Beuret and Anthony Smith Passenger Information and Accessibility Christian Wolmar Modal shift and transport related Air Quality issues Refreshment Break Feedback from Scrutiny Workshops and Chair’s Closing Comments 7 Val Shawcross CBE HATF Chair Close 8 Classification: Confidential
Classification: Confidential Th The Ch Chall llenges: Passenger Information and Accessibility Anthony Smith (Transport Focus) & Kris Beuret (HCEB) Classification: Confidential
Classification: Confidential Accessibility Airport Spread • The size of the airport and the spread out location of the different terminals and entry points Service Issues • PRM service provider – staff recruitment, training, language skills • Disruption Equipment and Design • e.g. wheelchair design, ITS capacity, wayfaring Passenger Flows • Logistics – imbalance of PRMs on departure and arrival • PRM definition • Wheelchair ‘trains’ Classification: Confidential
Classification: Confidential Th The Challenges: Modal Shift and Transport Related Air Quality Issues Shamal Ratnayaka (TfL) & Mark Frost (HSPG Transport Group/LB Hounslow) Classification: Confidential
Classification: Confidential The Demand Challenge Heathrow today 235,000 daily trips 75 mppa Expanded Heathrow 370,000 daily trips 132 mppa 2026 2030 2035 2040 2050 NPS central case (opening) 132 mppa - 135 mppa 136 mppa HAL DCO (opening) 115 mppa 130 mppa 135 mppa 142 mppa Classification: Confidential
Classification: Confidential The Demand Challenge Current & Expansion Daily surface access demand (000s) 0 50 100 150 200 250 Car & Taxi Public Transport • Heathrow aspiration: No net increase in highway trips • 150,000 extra daily trips by sustainable modes (+150%) • In mode share terms – from 39% → 66% • Caveat: extent to which staff car-sharing and backfilling taxis can reduce car trips? • How to attract people to public transport? • How to accommodate that additional demand? Classification: Confidential
Classification: Confidential The Mode Share Challenge NPS targets Passenger public transport mode share • 50% in 2030 • 55% in 2040 Staff car trips • 25% reduction in 2030 • 50% reduction in 2040 TfL analysis found NPS targets may result in +40,000 vehicles HAL aspiration : No increase in “airport - related” road trips Air quality obligations – compliance Classification: Confidential
Classification: Confidential How To Secure Mode Shift – Carrot and Stick Highway Passenger/Staff Scenario person trips PT mode share 2015 Base 143,700 39% 2031 No expansion 151,900 45% 2031 Expansion + infrastructure interventions 200,000 - 220,000 46% - 50% 2031 No extra traffic 125,200 66% ( 132 mppa; allows for freight growth ) • To secure no increase in highway traffic would require that Heathrow also introduce a road access charge • Analysis by Airports Commission, TfL found this would need to be £40-50 It will be essential to demonstrate: • Necessary package of infrastructure is in place to encourage and accommodate sustainable mode shift • Appropriate use of demand levers (emissions zone, road user charging, parking management including cost) to drive mode shift Classification: Confidential
Classification: Confidential How To Secure Mode Shift – From All Directions [ Current ] based on CAA/HAL data Overall passenger public transport share: 39% Reading 33% Kensington & Chelsea 52% 18 tph Slough 4% HEATHROW Hammersmith & Fulham 59% (22+ tph Windsor & Maidenhead 7% Ealing 38% in future) Guildford 7% Richmond 21% Woking 25% Kingston 24% • New rail links would seem to be essential to achieve mode shift from south + west? Classification: Confidential
Classification: Confidential Various Questions On Assumptions… HAL believes its modelling supports the view that its mode share targets can be met; though some substantial work has been done, there remain fundamental questions around some of the assumptions used, for example: • % transfer passengers, % future workforce etc. ? • Effect of HULEZ (particularly as colleagues are exempt?)/real world impact of vehicle access charge on behaviour for people with a high value of time? • Equity of the VAC in respect to access to public transport? • Hypothecation of income from VAC etc., managing the VAC to deliver NPS targets (time lags etc.). Confusion on approval process? • Mitigation of parking on neighbouring roads by those seeking to avoid charges? • Lack of sensitivities and a feared tendency to best case? • What bus/coach service improvements are modelled? What if these don’t materialise? • Environmentally managed growth – independence? Teeth? Classification: Confidential
Classification: Confidential If Mode Shift Not Achieved... 2031 AM peak hour · Do- Expansion (‘TfL package’) minus Do -Minimum % increase in journey time for non-airport trips Classification: Confidential
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