Growth, Inequality, and Poverty Reduction in Growth, Inequality, and Poverty Reduction in Developing Countries: Recent Global Evidence Developing Countries: Recent Global Evidence By By Augustin K. Fosu Augustin K. Fosu Deputy Director, UN University- -WIDER WIDER Deputy Director, UN University (Research Associate: BWPI, U of Manchester; CSAE, U of Oxford) (Research Associate: BWPI, U of Manchester; CSAE, U of Oxford) For Presentation at the UN- -DESA/ILO Expert Group Meeting DESA/ILO Expert Group Meeting For Presentation at the UN ‘POVERTY ERADICATION POVERTY ERADICATION’ ’ ‘ International Labor Organization (ILO) International Labor Organization (ILO) Geneva, Switzerland Geneva, Switzerland 20- -22 June 2011 22 June 2011 20 Fosu@wider.unu.edu
Outline Outline Introduction Introduction Trends in Developing Countries’ ’ Relative Growth Trends in Developing Countries Relative Growth GDP Growth vs. Poverty Reduction, by Region GDP Growth vs. Poverty Reduction, by Region Poverty Trends, by Region and the Emerging Giants Poverty Trends, by Region and the Emerging Giants Progress on Poverty: Global Sample of 80 Countries Progress on Poverty: Global Sample of 80 Countries Growth- -Poverty Transformation Vectors by Country Poverty Transformation Vectors by Country Growth Estimating the Income and Inequality Elasticities Estimating the Income and Inequality Elasticities Distribution of Income and Inequality Elasticities Distribution of Income and Inequality Elasticities Contributions to Poverty Reduction by Country: Contributions to Poverty Reduction by Country: Income vs. Inequality Growth Income vs. Inequality Growth Illustrative Simulations Illustrative Simulations Summary Summary Conlusion Conlusion 2 Fosu@wider.unu.edu
Introduction Introduction Shifting wealth and development Shifting wealth and development Poverty reduction as a dimension of Poverty reduction as a dimension of development development Poverty reduction by region and by country: Poverty reduction by region and by country: recent evidence for 80 countries = ? recent evidence for 80 countries = ? Roles of income and inequality by country = ? Roles of income and inequality by country = ? Fosu@wider.unu.edu
Trend in Developing-Developed Countries’ GDP Growth Gap Data source: World Bank WDI Online 2009b Data source: World Bank WDI Online 2009b
Per capita GDP growth versus poverty reduction by region
Trends in poverty (headcount ratio) by region, $1.25: 1981-2005 $1.25 standard 100 P o v e rt y h e a d c o u n t ra t io 80 60 SSA 40 SAS LAC 20 EAP MENA 0 EECA 1981 1996 2005
Trends in poverty (headcount ratio), $1.25: China vs. India, 1981-2005 $1.25 standard 100 poverty headcount ratio 80 60 China 40 (Rural) 20 China China 0 (Urban) 1981 1996 2005 $1.25 standard 70 Poverty headcount ratio 60 India (Rural) 50 India 40 India (Urban) 30 20 10 0 1983 1994 2005
Trends in poverty (headcount ratio), $1.25: Trends in poverty (headcount ratio), $1.25: India vs. SAS and SSA, 1981- -2005 2005 India vs. SAS and SSA, 1981 Fosu@wider.unu.edu
Trends in poverty (headcount ratio) by region, $2.50: 1981-2005 $2.50 standard 120 100 SAS 80 SSA 60 EAP 40 MENA LAC 20 EECA 0 1981 1996 2005
Trends in poverty (headcount ratio), $2.50: China vs. India, 1981-2005 $2.50 standard 120 tio a 100 t r China n (Rural) 80 u o c 60 d a China e 40 h ty China 20 r e (Urban) v o 0 p 1981 1996 2005 $2.50 standard 100 India (Rural) Poverty headcount ratio 90 India 80 India (Urban) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1983 1994 2005
Trends in poverty (headcount ratio), $2.50: India vs. SAS and SSA, 1981-2005 Fosu@wider.unu.edu
Progress on Poverty by Country , early- -mid mid- -1990s to present [Source: 1990s to present [Source: Fosu Fosu (2010)] Progress on Poverty by Country , early (2010)] Decile Decile Poverty growth Poverty growth Poverty growth Poverty growth Decile Decile Poverty growth Poverty growth Poverty growth Poverty growth $1.25 (min- -max) max) $2.50 (min- -max) max) $1.25 (min- -max) max) $2.50 (min- -max) max) $1.25 (min $2.50 (min $1.25 (min $2.50 (min 1. 1. Azerbaijan Azerbaijan Azerbaijan Azerbaijan 6. 6. Burkina Faso Burkina Faso Cambodia Cambodia Estonia Latvia CAR CAR Estonia Latvia CAR CAR Jamaica Jamaica Mexico Mexico Egypt Egypt Côte d'Ivoire Côte d'Ivoire Latvia Poland Lao PDR India- -Urb Urb. . Latvia Poland Lao PDR India Poland Poland Russian Fed. Russian Fed. Nepal Nepal Mali Mali Russian Fed. Tunisia Panama Peru Russian Fed. Tunisia Panama Peru Tunisia Tunisia Ukraine Ukraine Sri Lanka Sri Lanka Swaziland Swaziland Ukraine Venezuela Uganda Uganda Ukraine Venezuela Uganda Uganda 2. Belarus Brazil 7. Cambodia Dominican Rep. 2. Belarus Brazil 7. Cambodia Dominican Rep. Costa Rica Costa Rica Chile Chile Dominican Rep. Dominican Rep. Ethiopia Ethiopia Malaysia China- -Urb Urb. . India- -Rur Rur. . India- -Rur Rur. . Malaysia China India India Mexico Mexico Costa Rica Costa Rica Lesotho Lesotho Kazakhstan Kazakhstan Romania Ecuador Mauritania Lao PDR Romania Ecuador Mauritania Lao PDR Thailand Thailand Estonia Estonia Mozambique Mozambique Morocco Morocco Uruguay- -Urb Urb. . Jordan Niger Mozambique Uruguay Jordan Niger Mozambique Venezuela Venezuela Romania Romania Philippines Philippines Niger Niger 3. 3. Armenia Armenia Cameroon Cameroon 8. 8. Bangladesh Bangladesh Bangladesh Bangladesh Cameroon Egypt Burundi Burkina Faso Cameroon Egypt Burundi Burkina Faso Chile Chile El Salvador El Salvador Guinea Guinea- -Bissau Bissau Burundi Burundi China- -Urb Urb. . Honduras India- -Urb Urb. . Iran China Honduras India Iran Ecuador Ecuador Indonesia Indonesia- -Urb Urb. . Madagascar Madagascar Madagascar Madagascar Indonesia- -Urb Urb. . Jamaica Morocco Nigeria Indonesia Jamaica Morocco Nigeria Jordan Jordan Nicaragua Nicaragua Nigeria Nigeria Tanzania Tanzania Pakistan Thailand Peru Zambia Pakistan Thailand Peru Zambia 4. Brazil China- -Rur. Rur. 9. Colombia Albania 4. Brazil China 9. Colombia Albania China China- -Rur. Rur. Ghana Ghana Côte d'Ivoire Côte d'Ivoire Armenia Armenia Indonesia- -Rur Rur. . Kenya Iran Colombia Indonesia Kenya Iran Colombia Kazakhstan Kazakhstan Mauritania Mauritania Kyrgyz Rep. Kyrgyz Rep. Guinea Guinea Moldova Pakistan Mongolia Guinea- -Bissau Bissau Moldova Pakistan Mongolia Guinea Nicaragua Nicaragua Paraguay Paraguay Tanzania Tanzania Lesotho Lesotho Paraguay Sri Lanka Turkey Mongolia Paraguay Sri Lanka Turkey Mongolia Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam Zambia Zambia South Africa South Africa 5. 5. El Salvador El Salvador Indonesia Indonesia- -Rur Rur. . 10. 10. Albania Albania Argentina- Argentina -Urb Urb. . Ethiopia Malaysia Argentina- -Urb Urb. . Belarus Ethiopia Malaysia Argentina Belarus Ghana Ghana Moldova Moldova Bolivia Bolivia Bolivia Bolivia Honduras Nepal Djibouti Djibouti Honduras Nepal Djibouti Djibouti Kenya Kenya Panama Panama Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Mali Philippines Guinea Kyrgyz Rep. Mali Philippines Guinea Kyrgyz Rep. Fosu@wider.unu.edu Senegal Senegal Senegal Senegal South Africa South Africa Uruguay Uruguay- -Urb Urb. . Swaziland Turkey Yemen Yemen Swaziland Turkey Yemen Yemen
‘Growth-Poverty Transformation Efficiency Vectors’, by country Country Efficiency Vector Country Efficiency Vector Albania (2, 8, 10, 9) Kyrgyz Rep. (5, 10, 9, 10) Argentina-Urb. (9, 9, 10, 10) Lao PDR (3, 6, 6, 7) Armenia (1, 10, 3, 9) Latvia (1, 1, 1, 1) Azerbaijan (1, 2, 1, 1) Lesotho (5, 10, 7, 9) Bangladesh (4, 8, 8, 8) Madagascar (9, 5, 8, 8) Belarus (2, 3, 2, 3) Malaysia (4, 9, 2, 5) Bolivia (8, 7, 10, 10) Mali (4,1, 5, 6) Brazil (8, 5, 4, 2) Mauritania (9, 5, 7, 4) Burkina Faso (4, 6, 6, 8) Mexico (8, 2, 2, 1) Burundi (10, 7, 8, 8) Moldova (4, 6, 4, 5) Cambodia (2, 5, 7, 6) Mongolia (3, 9, 9, 9) Cameroon (7, 1, 3, 3) Morocco (6, 8, 8, 7) CAR (10, 1, 6, 6) Mozambique (2, 4, 7, 7) Chile (3 , 6, 3, 2) Nepal (7, 2, 6, 5) China-Rur. (1, 2, 4, 4) Nicaragua (5, 4, 4, 3) China-Urb. (1, 1, 3, 2) Niger (10, 4, 7, 7) Colombia (9, 7, 9, 9) Nigeria (7, 8, 8, 8) Costa Rica (6, 4, 2, 2) Pakistan (7, 3, 3, 4) Côte d'Ivoire (10, 4, 9, 6) Panama (6,. 8, 6, 5) Djibouti (10, 10, 10, 10) Paraguay (10, 8, 4, 4) Dominican Rep. (3, 7, 7, 7) Peru (6, 5, 8, 6)
Recommend
More recommend
