Understanding South Asian Violent Extremist Group-Group Interactions D.B. Skillicorn 1 , F. Spezzano 2 , V.S. Subrahmanian 2 , M. Garber 2 1 Queen’s University, Kingston, Canada 2 University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA Contact Info: vs@cs.umd.edu The 2014 International Symposium on Foundations of Open Source Intelligence and Security Informatics Beijing, China, August 18-19, 2014 1
Motivations • Terrorist groups cooperate each other, with an increasing risk of terroristic acts. • Understanding inter-group interactions is critical for security and intelligence agencies. • We studied the case of terrorist groups interactions in the area of South Asia. 2
Motivations Which of these groups play a central role in providing financial, logistical, operational, and political support to other SAVE groups? 3
SAVE Analysis • We built a dataset (graph) describing a set of 500 interactions (edges) between 30 SAVE groups (nodes) over a period of 20 years (1993-2013). • We used the following techniques to analyze the SAVE network: 1. Spectral Embedding of Graphs 2. Simmelian Ties and Backbones 3. PageRank 4. Betweenness Centrality 4
The SAVE Dataset • Our dataset describes the interactions of 30 South Asian (India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh) Violent Extremist groups from 1993 to 2013. – Some of the groups included are: Al Qaeda (AQ), Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), Taliban (Tal), Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), etc. – Our dataset also includes • the Pakistan’s Inter -Service Intelligence agency (ISI), • the Pakistani Islamist political group Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI), and • some political parties. (non-terrorist groups providing political, military or economic support) 5
The SAVE Dataset: Example Tuples (LeT, Logistical, Al Qaeda, 1999, 2001) (ISI, Financial, LeT, 1990, 2013) (SIMI, Operational, LeT, 2006, 2006) (ISI, Political, D-Company, 1994, 2010) • We documented a total of 500 interactions for 20 years (1993-2013) • All the SAVE dataset was collected manually and from open sources : – books, government publications – scholarly papers, NGO reports, dissertations, – New York Times and Times of India – Long War Journal and South Asia Terrorism Portal 6
Spectral Embedding of Graphs • Embedding the undirected version of the SAVE network in a 2 or 3 dimensional space to – cluster groups that are similar, and – identify groups that are central. 7
Spectral Embedding of Graphs • We used the Symmetric Laplacian matrix of the SAVE network A L = D −1/2 A D −1/ 2 where – A ( i ,j)=1 if there is an edge from i to j , A ( i ,j)=0 otherwise (adjacency matrix), and – D (i,j)= Σ j in [1:n] A ( i , j ) is the diagonal degree matrix. 8
Simmelian Ties and Backbones • We constructed Simmelian networks from the undirected version of the SAVE network. • Triads in the social network: continuity if a node fails, mediation in case of disputes. • We also combined the Simmelian network with the spectral embedding. 9
PageRank Centrality • The PageRank PR of a node v is a measure of the influence exerted by v • For computing PageRank, we reverted the directed edges so that edges go from a recipient of financial , logistical , operational , or political support to the provider. – In this way, provider nodes have high PR score 10
Betweenness Centrality • The betweenness centrality BC of a node v is the percentage of shortest paths between any pair of nodes (s,t) that pass through the node v • Nodes with high BC represent distributors of the type of support involved (financial, logistical, political, or operational). 11
ANALYSIS OF THE WHOLE SAVE NETWORK 12
Analysis of the whole SAVE Network 3D Spectral Embedding of the undirected SAVE graph • Closeness corresponds to similarity (in interacting with all other groups approx. in the same way) • The most important groups are placed closed to the center 13
Analysis of the whole SAVE Network 3D Spectral Embedding of the undirected SAVE graph • Closeness corresponds to similarity (in interacting with all other groups approx. in the same way) • The most important groups are placed closed to the center There are 3 visible clusters in the figure 14
Analysis of the whole SAVE Network 3D Spectral Embedding of the undirected SAVE graph Most Important Groups : – Al Qaeda (AQ), Taliban (Tal), Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HuJI), Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), Pakistan’s Inter -Service Intelligence (ISI), Indian Mujahideen (IM), and Rabita Trust (RTr) Rabita Trust serves as an important source of funds to many SAVE groups 15
Analysis of the whole SAVE Network 3D Spectral Embedding of the Simmelian graph S 9 The SAVE central core is a clique of 5 groups: ISI, JeM, LeT, Tal and AQ HuJI SIMI ISI JeM The analysis confirms the LeT Tal widely held belief that the AQ ISI cooperates with many of these groups 16
Public evidence that one group provided monetary support to another organization for a particular attack or for the organization’s general work FINANCIAL SUPPORT ANALYSIS 17
Financial Support Analysis • PageRank : measures the importance of a (financial) provider node SPIDER GRAPH The node size captures its PageRank importance The higher a node’s centrality, the closer it is to the center Edges are the group (financial) interactions 18
Financial Support Analysis • PageRank : measures the importance of a financial provider node The key nodes involved in providing financial support are: Al Akhtar Trust (AlAT) Lashkar-e-Islami (LeI) Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) Haqqani (Haq) Al Qaeda (AQ) 19
Financial Support Analysis • Betweenness Centrality : how funds are distributed All the above first four groups (Haq, AQ, TTP, LeI) are significant players in also in distributing financial support. AlAT is important in providing funds, while Dco in distributing them. 20
Support for the organization’s general operations from one organization to another LOGISTICAL SUPPORT ANALYSIS 21
Logistical Support Analysis • PageRank : measures the importance of a logistical provider node The dominant logistical support providers are: Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) Pakistani Intelligence Agency (ISI) Other importants players: Taliban (Tal) Student Islamic Movement of India (SIMI) Al Qaeda (AQ) 22
Logistical Support Analysis • Betweenness Centrality : how logistical support is distributed The Betweenness Centrality spider graph shows that AQ, LeT, Tal, and ISI are very important in distributing logistical support, too. 23
Operational support in carrying out a particular attack from one organization to another OPERATIONAL SUPPORT ANALYSIS 24
Operational Support Analysis • Spectral Embedding of the SAVE sub- network containing operational interactions only. AlRT LeI HuMuj DCo From the graph it is clear a strong ISI Haq TTP AlAT cooperation between LeT, IM, AQ, Tal, LeT IM LeJ (Lashkar-e-Jhangvi), and HuJI HuJI (Harkarat-ul-Jihad-al Islami) SIMI AQ Tal HuJIB LeJ JeM SSP 25
Operational Support Analysis • PageRank measures the importance of a operational provider node The dominant operational support providers are: Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) Harkat-ul-Jihad-al Islami (HuJI) Taliban (Tal) Indian Mujahideen (IM) Pakistani Intelligence Agency (ISI) Al Qaeda (AQ) It is well known that HuJI participated in many attacks with other organizations 26
Operational Support Analysis • Betweenness Centrality how operational support is distributed The key players are: Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) Taliban (Tal) Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) Al-Akhtar Trust (AlAT) Harkat-ul-Jihad-al Islami (HuJI) Al-Akhtar Trust (AlAT), typically a financing organization, is also an active operational player 27
When an organization or its leader publicly praised an other group, or the existence of ties or meetings is known POLITICAL SUPPORT ANALYSIS 28
Political Support Analysis • Spectral Embedding of the SAVE sub- network containing political interactions only. JKLF APHC The Pakistani Intelligence Agency (ISI) is DCo the center of the graph, while other groups are strongly divided into 3 distinct clusters ISI Haq HuMuj HizMuj HuJI LeT AQ JUeI TTP LeJ PPP LeI PML Tal SSP JeM LeO AlRT UTeN SIMI ISYF IM HuJIB AlAT JeI RTr 29
Political Support Analysis • PageRank measures the importance of a political provider node Al Qaeda is the most important provider of political support. Other important players are: Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI), SIMI, TTP, ISI, LeT, and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) 30
Political Support Analysis • Betweenness Centrality how political support is distributed The BC spider graph shows that Al Qaeda, ISI and TTP play also a significant role in distributing political support. LeJ and Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) have also an important role in political support 31
CONCLUSIONS 32
Conclusions • Our analysis is summarized in the following tables: Number of times the group appears in PR or BC top-list (rank, value) 33
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