Greenprint of Growth Summary of Findings Shyam Kannan, Principal and PSG Director, RCLCO skannan@rclco.com DOT-HUD-EPA Partnership for Sustainable Communities| February 22, 2012
STUDY OBJECTIVES Quantify and qualify the nature of regional development trends Ground truth the anecdotal information prevalent in the marketplace Forecast the likely development activity at and around Green Line Corridor station areas through 2030 C id t ti th h 2030 Estimate the number of jobs and amount of tax revenue to be created at and around Green Line Corridor station areas through 2030 1 RCLCO
RCLCO Demand for Transit Oriented Development 2
WHAT DOES THE SURVEY SAY? ONE QUARTER OF THE MARKET WANTS FIXED RAIL TRANSIT 23% 76% Households with preference for Fixed Rail Transit Households without preference for Fixed Rail Transit Source: National Association of REALTORS, 2011, RCLCO 3 RCLCO
WHAT DOES THE SURVEY SAY? ONE QUARTER OF THE MARKET WANTS FIXED RAIL Preference by Household Type Preference by Age Group 19.7% 22.5% 70+ 2+ with Children 21.9% 55-69 21.8% 2+ No Children 22.9% 35-54 28.7% Single No Children 25.9% 18-34 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 0 500 1000 1500 2000 Transit Preference Total Respondents Transit Preference Total Respondents Preference byIncome Level Preference by Income Level 21.4% High 21.1% Mid 25.7% Low 0 500 1000 1500 2000 Transit Preference Total Respondents Source: National Association of REALTORS, 2011, RCLCO 4 RCLCO
WHAT DOES THE SURVEY SAY? PREFERENCES IN METRO AREAS WITHOUT RAIL TRANSIT Transit Preference Among Respondents in Metropolitan Areas with No Existing Rail Transit 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0% Low Mid High Low Mid High Low Mid High Low Mid High 18-34 35-54 55-69 70+ Single No Children 2+ No Children 2+ with Children Source: National Association of REALTORS, 2011, RCLCO 5 RCLCO
WHAT DOES THE SURVEY SAY? PREFERENCES IN METRO AREAS WITH RAIL TRANSIT Transit Preference Among Respondents in Metropolitan Areas with Existing Rail Transit 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0% Low Mid High Low Mid High Low Mid High Low Mid High 18-34 35-54 55-69 70+ Single No Children 2+ No Children 2+ with Children Source: National Association of REALTORS, 2011, RCLCO 6 RCLCO
RCLCO 7 What about Jobs?
SALT LAKE CITY/OGDEN JOB CREATION WITHIN 0.5 MILE OF TRAX STATIONS Source: RCLCO, Metropolitan Research Center, University of Utah 8 RCLCO
SHIFT SHARE ANALYSIS: SALT LAKE/OGDEN CBSA TOD CAPTURED MORE THAN 20% OF TOTAL JOB GROWTH -3500 -2500 -1500 -500 500 1500 2500 3500 4500 5500 6500 Utilities 1,362 Construction 344 Manufacturing -15 Manufacturing -1,168 1 168 Manufacturing -3,079 Total TOD Employment Growth 04 to 10 Wholesale Trade 2,433 Share of LRT EMP to CBSA Performance Retail Trade (NS) 158 Retail Trade SHARE of LRT EMP to CBSA Industry Performance (IM) 112 Transportation and Warehousing TOD/"Local Advantage" Shift of -622 Employment (RS) Transportation and Warehousing 0 Information 731 Finance and Insurance 3,135 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 130 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 1,147 Management of Companies and Enterprises -32 Admin, Support, Waste Mngmnt & Remed Services 1,910 Educational Services 5 027 5,027 Health Care and Social Assistance 6,276 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 1,141 Accommodation and Food Services 1,212 Other Services (except Public Administration) -408 Oth Other 1,884 Source: RCLCO, Metropolitan Research Center, University of Utah 9 RCLCO
IMPLICATIONS AND QUESTIONS 1.Are we undercounting the overall demand for transit-oriented environs? 2.What are our regional transportation network expansion plans? Are they sufficient? i l ? A th ffi i t? 3 What are the neighborhoods areas and regions 3.What are the neighborhoods, areas, and regions that make the most sense for additional transit service? 4.Are transit opponents the majority, or just a very vocal minority? ? 10 RCLCO
RCLCO 11
DENSIFICATION ALREADY UNDERWAY THE REGION IS REORIENTING ITS GROWTH PATTERNS About 20% of the t 20% Ab f th region’s household growth between 2005 and 2015 is currently and 2015 is currently taking place within walkable, urban, transit-oriented transit oriented areas. The growth of Gen Y , increased demand for Transit-Oriented Development , and p demand for sophisticated urbanity in part y driving this trend. Source: MWCOG Regional Activity Centers, RCLCO 12 RCLCO
GEN Y DRIVING THE FUTURE OF REAL ESTATE RE-URBANIZING AMERICA THROUGH RECOVERY RCLCO Consumer Research shows: 77% of Generation Y plan to live in an Urban Core, and is re-urbanizing America year over year This is where the future of growth is – capturing Gen Y will be critical to economic vitality through 2050 4,200,000 4,100,000 4,000,000 3,900,000 3,800,000 3,700,000 , , 3,600,000 3,500,000 3,400,000 3 400 000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Number of 22 Year Olds Same 22 Year Olds Turn 25 NOTE: Number of 22-year olds is based upon birth rate and does not factor in death rates and migration. SOURCE: U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 13 RCLCO
CORE TO ADD NEARLY 150,000 HHS BY 2030 HH GROWTH DRIVEN BY GEN Y, MILLENIALS Th The D.C. region’s historical Favored D C i ’ hi t i l F d Younger households and new economy Y h h ld d Quarter has emanated due west. employment is redrawing the investment map. Growth in the post 1960s period followed thi t this trajectory. j t Gen X and Gen Y are driving demand for G X d G Y d i i d d f urban locations. Boomers and retirees may continue to favor the westward trajectory of historical Bulk of household growth through 2030 growth. th d i driven by 18-34 year old households. b 18 34 ld h h ld 14 RCLCO
DC/MD/VA METRO AREA MORE DEMAND FOR TOD THAN SUPPLY 72,368 124,984 Virginia 52,616 22,975 Prince George's 68,635 45 660 45,660 32,946 Montgomery 81,378 48,432 302,669 DC 472,570 169,901 0 0 50,000 50,000 100,000 100,000 150,000 150,000 200,000 200,000 250,000 250,000 300,000 300,000 350,000 350,000 400,000 400,000 450,000 450,000 500,000 500,000 HH within 0.5 miles of Metro Expected (23%) preference for transit Deficit of HH in proximity to Metro SOURCE: RCLCO 15 RCLCO
RCLCO Implications for Development in Washington, D.C. 16
CONSIDERATIONS The questions that the Capitol Riverfront BID have asked are even more important given the above i t t i th b background They raise questions of: y q Regional (and global) competitiveness Economic sustainability District fiscal health fi l h lth Public return on i investment t t 17 RCLCO
RCLCO The Green Line - Redrawing the Investment Map 18
RCLCO 19 FOCUS ON THE FACTS A CHANGING REALITY
D.C. – ONCE AGAIN A DESTINATION OF CHOICE 18-34 YEAR OLD HOUSEHOLD PREFER A D.C. ADDRESS Washington, D.C. has re-emerged as a -10,082 Prince George's County regional and national destination for young, -10,568 affluent, professional households. -3,248 Montgomery County It’s population resurgence has manifested in -12,453 a percentage growth in 2010 that was the highest in the nation . g -800 Fairfax County -5,824 5 824 While D.C. recaptured the mantle as the -76 region’s growth market, the Green Line Alexandria City 1,557 station areas repositioned themselves as p destinations of choice. 6,900 Arlington County 2,796 11,177 , District of Columbia 225 -20,000 -10,000 0 10,000 20,000 2000 - 2010 1990 - 2000 20 RCLCO
THESE HOUSEHOLDS ARE CHOOSING THE GREEN LINE OVER ALL OTHER OPTIONS 1990-2000 2000-2010 21 RCLCO
THE GREEN LINE CORRIDOR LEADING THE WAY SETTING THE BAR FOR URBAN AND TOD DEVELOPMENT Over the past ten years, multifamily units added near Green Line Corridor Green Line Corridor station areas outpaced Northwest D.C. Red Line station areas areas. Over the next 20 years, the Green Line Corridor study area Line Corridor study area may see market-driven demand for 8,100 housing units, 4.35 million SF of office and million SF of office and approximately 400,000 SF of retail. 22 RCLCO
RCLCO Unveiling the New Green Line Householder 23
THE NEW GREEN LINE HOUSEHOLDER HIGH INCOMES, HIGH STANDARDS New households moving into Green Line station areas ma have incomes that are areas may have incomes that are twice as high as existing data suggests prevails in these submarkets. Restaurants and retailers that can locate proximate to this spending power and household growth concentration may have the household growth concentration may have the advantage of harnessing an underserved high-income market . 24 RCLCO
THE NEW 100% LOCATION? SOME GREEN LINE STATIONS SET TOP-OF-MARKET PRICES By 2010, the for-sale multifamily pricing at certain Green Line stations caught up to and even eclipsed pricing in the Line stations caught up to and even eclipsed pricing in the top of market , high-priced Dupont Circle neighborhood. 25 RCLCO
RCLCO The Green Line as an Employment Destination 26
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