Globalism versus Nationalism Rawi Abdelal April 2019 The past is - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Globalism versus Nationalism Rawi Abdelal April 2019

The past is never dead. It’s not even past. — William Faulkner, Requiem for a Nun Abdelal 2

Three themes, three cycles: A great power transition, still unfolding Borders and the Other Inequality and the Center Abdelal 3

Rise and fall A great power transition Abdelal 4

Re-bordering the borderless world Abdelal 7

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Some lingering, festering debates About inequality The Other And how the elites let down “the people” Abdelal 12

Debates leading to populism on the Right Abdelal 14

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Dutch parliamentary elections, March 2017 Abdelal 17

French presidential and parliamentary elections, April-June 2017 Abdelal 18

German parliamentary elections, September 2017 Abdelal 19

Italian general election, March 2018 Abdelal 20

Brazilian presidential election, October 2018 Abdelal 21

And on the Left Abdelal 22

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Italian general election, March 2018 Abdelal 27

Mexican general election, July 2018 Abdelal 28

And Left-Right Abdelal 29

France November 2018 – April 2019 Abdelal 30

Belgium December 2018 Abdelal 31

The weakening middle Between the angry extremes With pressures for fragmentation Abdelal 32

Such as the BRexit As a matter of consequence And as metaphor Abdelal 33

BREXIT: FAULT LINES OF GLOBALIZATION 50% 50% 71 Multiculturalism 81 68 Social liberalism 80 60 Feminism 74 62 The Green movement 78 62 Globalization 69 51 71 Internet 49 51 Capitalism 79 80 Immigration Share of survey participants who supported both remaining in Share of survey participants who supported both leaving the European Union and felt positive about a number of the European Union and felt negative about a number of concepts concepts Remain Leave

Such as the 2016 U.S. election As a revolution (of sorts) And as allegory Abdelal 35

In the souls of the people, the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage. — John Steinbeck, The Grapes of Wrath Abdelal 39

Reflections on the Revolution in France Abdelal 43

Inquiries into the Italian “Tsunami” Abdelal 46

The future enters into us, in order to transform itself in us, long before it happens. — Rainer Maria Rilke Abdelal 52