Global Trends 2014 April 2015 Piotr Poznanski, President The IWSR - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Global Trends 2014 April 2015 Piotr Poznanski, President – The IWSR US

The leading source of ¡ wine and spirits information

The IWSR databases • Volume and value data • Domestic and duty free • Five-year forecasts • Easy-to-use online tool

Coverage 155 countries, including 20 markets in Sub-Saharan Africa • 20,500 brand lines covered • Wines, spirits, beer, cider and mixed drinks •

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Global Trends 2014

Global Alcohol Market CAGR ¡ % Change ¡ Mkt Share Category 2012 2013 2008-13 2012-13 2013 Beer 20,380,358 20,463,520 1.0% 0.4% 74.0% Wine 3,482,665 3,507,648 2.1% 0.7% 12.7% Spirits 3,084,939 3,092,148 4.8% 0.2% 11.2% Mixed Drinks 348,181 371,358 3.9% 6.7% 1.3% Cider 197,153 211,602 5.5% 7.3% 0.8% All volumes 000’s 9-litre cases Source: The IWSR ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡

Share of Product Categories by Region - 2013 North Asia America Pacific Europe 100% 100% South 100% Africa & America ME 100% 100% Source: The IWSR

Premiumisation of the market Spirits by quality 2013 1998 100% 100% Source: The IWSR

Cross-Category Premiumisation

The Shift from West to East

Other Long-Term Trends Female & Millennial consumers Concept of ‘Living well’ Rise of the ‘global consumer’ Rise of own label & large retailer power

Flavour Trends Spiced Sweet Fruit

Other key trends • Resurgence of whisk(e)y • Growing interest in malts • Development of premium wine • Rise of super-premium gin • Move to lighter drinks • Craft movement • Innovation & category blur

Global Forecast 2014 – 2019

Forecasted volume growth 2013-2019 Total volume growth: +1.5bn cases • Spirits: +154m Wine: Beer: cases +135m cases +1.1bn cases

Largest Spirits Markets – Global vs. Multinationals Source: The IWSR Forecast — 10 largest spirits markets (2019) Current concentration of multinationals’* spirits sales — 10 largest markets (2013) *Aggregate sales of Bacardi, Beam Suntory, Brown Forman, Campari, Diageo, Edrington, LVMH, Pernod Ricard, Remy Cointreau and Wm Grants

Forecast – Global consumption by spirits category CAGR ¡ CAGR ¡ 2013 F2019 Vol. Change 2008-13 2013-19 1 National Spirits 1,414,127 1,466,551 9.4% 0.6% 52,424 2 Vodka 496,483 499,869 -1.1% 0.1% 3,386 3 National Whisky 201,608 269,901 10.9% 5.0% 68,294 4 Brandy 187,061 197,368 8.0% 0.9% 10,307 5 Flavoured Spirits 159,953 162,721 -0.2% 0.3% 2,768 6 Rum 145,713 132,737 1.7% -1.5% -12,976 7 Other Spirits 128,034 131,888 1.6% 0.5% 3,854 8 Scotch Whisky 96,209 108,541 1.3% 2.0% 12,332 9 Cane 110,129 105,206 -2.0% -0.8% -4,924 10 US Whiskey 36,950 48,475 4.6% 4.6% 11,525 11 Gin/Genever 49,249 46,006 -1.4% -1.1% -3,244 12 Tequila 26,697 31,527 3.0% 2.8% 4,830 13 Canadian Whisky 20,396 20,178 -0.5% -0.2% -218 14 Cognac/ Armagnac 12,609 14,514 1.2% 2.4% 1,905 15 Irish Whiskey 6,929 10,983 9.2% 8.0% 4,054 All volumes 000’s 9-litre cases Source: The IWSR ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡

US Whiskey Development Global Consumption by Quality Premium US Whiskey : 30,000 24.4m cases Volume (000’s 9-litre cases) +5.3% CAGR 22,500 Premium 15,000 Standard Value Super Premium 7,500 0 2009 2011 2013 F2015 F2017 F2019 CAGR ¡ CAGR ¡ ¡ Quality 2013 F2019 Vol. ¡Change 2008-­‑13 2013-­‑19 Super Premium 896 2,068 16.3% 14.9% 1,171 Premium 17,884 24,441 7.6% 5.3% 6,557 Standard 13,639 17,510 2.5% 4.3% 3,871 Value 4,526 4,447 -0.2% -0.3% -80 All volumes 000’s 9-litre cases Source: The IWSR ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡

Vodka – Regional Development Volume growth 2013-2019 ¡ ¡ CIS North Central NW Asia South Rest of Africa America Europe Europe America Europe 6,750 Volume ¡(000’s ¡9-­‑litre ¡cases) 4605.25 4,500 2965.5 2267.35 1464.95 2,250 1174.5 171.65 0 -2,250 -2077.82 -4,500 -6,750 -9,000 -8187.2 ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ Source: The IWSR ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ Vodka to stabilise as declines in CIS and Central Europe slow • Top growth markets include US, Brazil and India • ¡

USA spirits – 5 year forecast by category Absolute Absolute CAGR CAGR Change Change Volume Volume Volume Volume Volume Volume Volumes Volumes 2008 to 2014 to Category 2008 2013 2014 2019 2008 to 2013 2014 to 2019 2013 2019 180,291.25 204,403.00 208,860.25 225,440.75 2.54% 1.54% 24,111.75 16,580.50 Vodka 55,281.00 70,725.00 71,960.00 75,790.00 5.05% 1.04% 15,444.00 3,830.00 Whisky 45,390.50 50,542.00 52,517.50 61,050.00 2.17% 3.06% 5,151.50 8,532.50 Flavoured Spirits 23,863.25 24,177.00 24,560.25 23,805.75 0.26% -0.62% 313.75 -754.50 Rum 22,755.00 23,150.00 23,025.00 23,785.00 0.34% 0.65% 395.00 760.00 Tequila 11,169.00 13,910.00 14,575.00 17,825.00 4.49% 4.11% 2,741.00 3,250.00 Brandy 10,545.50 10,460.00 10,581.50 11,232.50 -0.16% 1.20% -85.50 651.00 Gin / Genever 11,035.00 10,343.25 10,190.00 9,909.00 -1.29% -0.56% -691.75 -281.00 National Spirits 58.00 966.75 1,313.00 1,903.50 75.54% 7.71% 908.75 590.50 Cane 194.00 129.00 138.00 140.00 -7.84% 0.29% -65.00 2.00 Units: 000’s 9 litre cases ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ Source: The IWSR ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡