MEASURING PEACE IN A COMPLEX WORLD GLOBAL PEACE INDEX2018
The Institute for Economics & Peace 4 3.6BN 18M Digital Reach International Offices Global Media Reach Research used extensively by organisations including Ranked as one of the 15 most impactful the OECD, Commonwealth Secretariat, World Bank think tanks in the world on the Global Go and the United Nations. To Think Tank Index.
The Global Peace Index 12 th edition Ranks 163 countries According to their relative states of peace Using 23 indicators weighed on a 1-5 scale Developed by the Institute of Economics and Peace Guided and overseen by a panel of International Experts With data collected and collated by the Economist Intelligence Unit
Global Peace Index indicators 6 measures of ongoing domestic and international conflict Including: intensity of organized internal conflicts, relations with neighbouring countries and number of deaths from conflict 10 measures of societal safety and security Including: number of refugees and IDPs, impact of terrorism, homicide and incarceration rates 7 measures of militarisation Including: military expenditure, number of armed service personnel, ease of access to small weapons
Results Cost of violence Trends in peace Positive Peace
GLOBAL PEACE INDEX RESULTS &FINDINGS
2018 highlights The average level of country peacefulness has deteriorated by 0.27% from last year. Fourth consecutive year where there was an average deterioration. 71 countries became more peaceful, 92 deteriorated Deterioration primarily driven by changes in: • Political terror • Intensity of internal conflict Counteracting these falls were improvements in: • Military Expenditure • Terrorism Impact
2018 highlights cont’d Syria remains the world’s least peaceful nation Qatar and the Democratic Republic of the Congo had the largest deteriorations South America had the largest regional deterioration Iceland is, again, the most peaceful country The Gambia and Liberia had the largest improvement South Asia had the largest regional improvement, although it was relatively small Europe remains the most peaceful region, but deteriorated on all three GPI domains
10 most peaceful countries ICELAND CANADA 1 1 6 Rank change: ↔ Rank change: ↔ NEW ZEALAND CZECH REPUBLIC 2 7 Rank change: ↔ Rank change: ↔ AUSTRIA SINGAPORE 3 8 Rank change: ↑1 Rank change: ↔ PORTUGAL JAPAN 4 9 Rank change: ↓1 Rank change: ↓1 DENMARK IRELAND 5 10 Rank change: ↔ Rank change: ↑2
10 least peaceful countries SYRIA YEMEN 163 158 Rank change: ↓1 Rank change: ↔ AFGHANISTAN LIBYA 162 157 Rank change: ↔ Rank change: ↓3 SOUTH SUDAN CONGO, DEM. REP. 161 156 Rank change: ↓1 Rank change: ↓5 CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC IRAQ 160 155 Rank change: ↑ 1 Rank change: ↑1 SOMALIA RUSSIA 159 154 Rank change: ↔ Rank change: ↓1
Risers and fallers This year 92 countries deteriorated while 71 countries improved.
Results by region The four most peaceful regions all experienced deteriorations in peacefulness.
GLOBAL PEACE INDEX TRENDS INPEACE
Trends since 2008 The average level of global peacefulness has deteriorated 2.38% since 2008, with declines in eight of the last ten years. Over half of the countries in Europe (the world’s most peaceful region) have deteriorated in peacefulness. No Nordic country is more peaceful now than in 2008. 62% of countries have experienced an increase in the impact of terrorism over the last decade. Nearly 1% of the global population is now displaced. Militarisation has improved in the majority of countries, with an average improvement of 3.2%. The biggest improvements occurred in military expenditure and the armed forces rate.
163 Europe declined in peace for the third year in a row with 23 of 36 countries deteriorating 61% of European countries have deteriorated, mainly Western Europe.
Deteriorations in peace - 10 years 2017 163 202 % 203% 67.75 million in 2017
Improvements in peace – 10 years 70 % 10 0 26% Of countries had More countries countries a drop in the Improved than reduced military homicide rate deteriorated in expenditure as a political terror % of GDP
GLOBAL PEACE INDEX ECONOMIC IMPACTOF VIOLENCE
The global cost of violence, 2017 163 8 4 8 $1988 This is a highly conservative estimate.
Global economic impact of violence The global economic impact of violence was $14.76 trillion PPP in 2017, equivalent to 12.4% of global GDP, or $1,988 per person. The average economic cost of violence was equivalent to 45 per cent of GDP in the ten countries most impacted by violence, compared to only two per cent in the ten least affected. In the last 70 years, per capita GDP growth has been three times higher in highly peaceful countries compared to those with low levels of peace. The global economy would be US$13.87 trillion larger than its current level if low peace countries achieved GDP growth equivalent to highly peaceful countries.
The global cost of violence, 2017 A 1% reduction in the cost of Military expenditure is the single biggest 163 component of the global cost of violence. violence is the equivalent to: The global total Official Development Assistance in 2017 A 10% reduction in the cost of violence is the equivalent to: The global total Foreign Direct Investment in 2017 The total economies of Denmark, Switzerland and Belgium Source: IEP
GLOBAL PEACE INDEX POSITIVE PEACE
DEFINING AND MEASURING PEACE The perfect state would have no police, jails or crime Actual Peace Positive Peace GPI Measures: Derived through Crime statistical analysis of Suppression datasets, indices and Military attitudes with the GPI Armed Conflict Positive Peace Index
Positive Peace Positive Peace creates the optimum environment for human potential to flourish. 163 High levels of Positive Peace are associated with: ` Higher per capita income Resilience Better environmental outcomes Higher GDP growth per annum Better performance on SDGs
Peace and GDP per capita growth Countries with very high level of peace, on average achieved nearly three times higher GDP per capita growth compared to the least peaceful countries since 1960. 3.0 2.8 2.5 ) 1960-2016 2.0 2.0 ON GROWTH (% 1.6 1.5 AVERAGE GDP PE PERS 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.0 VERY HIGH PEACE HIGH PEACE LOW PEACE VERY LOW PEACE PEACE GROUPS BASED ON GLOBAL PEACE INDEX
Peace and lower levels of inflation Historically inflation levels for high peace countries tend to remain consistently below low peace countries has lower volatility. 100 90 80 70 VERY HIGH PEACE HIGH PEACE 60 INFLATION RATE (%) LOW PEACE VERY LOW PEACE 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Positive Peace – Predicting economic performance • Countries that improve in Positive Peace since 1996 have 2% higher GDP growth than countries that deteriorate in Positive Peace • Countries that improved in Positive Peace exchange rate improved by 2% compared to 3.2% for countries that deteriorated in Positive Peace. • Countries that deteriorated significantly in Positive had a fall in their credit rating of 4.5 points on average – Non OECD • Every 1% improvement in Positive Peace is associated with 2.9% per cent growth in real GDP per capita from 2005 to 2016.
Positive Peace trends Overall, Positive Peace has been improving globally since 2005. However, this improvement plateaued in 2013 before falling in 2016. The region that experienced the most significant deteriorations across the highest number of Pillars was the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), followed by South America. Acceptance of the Rights of Others deteriorated across every region from 2013 to 2016. A large number of Positive Peace indicators need to improve before Negative Peace will improve. However, only a few key indicators of Positive Peace need to deteriorate in order to trigger increases in violence.
Summary 163 Measure and Measure and analyse peace analyse peace ACTION Factors that $$ Lost opportunity cost create peace • Better prediction • Better cost/benefit analysis • Better program outcomes
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