global occurrences). Non-scheduled flight in Bangladesh BAF Flight - PDF document

PRESENTATION ON BAF/NATIONAL/GLOBAL FLIGHT SAFETY ISSUES BY DIRECTOR OF FLIGHT SAFETY 36TH COMMAND SAFETY CONFERENCE Bismillahir Rahmanir Rahim, 1. Chief of Air Staff, Principal Staff Officers, Air Officer Commanding from different Air Bases, Distinguished guests from different aviation organizations, ladies and gentlemen. Assalamu Alaikum and good noon. 2. On behalf of all the members of Directorate of Flight Safety, I feel privileged to welcome you all to the 36th Command Safety Conference. I take this opportunity to express my sincerest gratitude to Chief of Air Staff for his kind presence. 3. The scope of Flight Safety is unlimited, the rooms for improvement is a continuous process. Today, with the advancement of modern technology, Flight Safety has become a bigger challenge and merely not limited to a specific boundary but has been expanded globally. Sharing of knowledge and experience is one of the major tools to enhance existing Flight Safety method. 4. The aim of my to-days presentation, ‘To exchange ideas and views on BAF, civil and Global Flight Safety issues". 5. For next 25 mins or so I will cover my topic following the sequence unfolded on the screen. Sequence of Review  Civil Airlines Flight Safety statistics of the year 2012 (In this part, I would like to provide the statistics and the analysis of the crucial safety aspects for the year 2012. This would allow us to appreciate our standing in light of the global occurrences).  Non-scheduled flight in Bangladesh  BAF Flight Safety trend Last 30 Years  BAF Flight Safety record 2012  Flight Safety threats in an environment of limited resources  Flight Safety trends of USAF 6. Ladies & Gentlemen , Flight International Journal has published a safety overview of the global airline safety in its January edition where the year 2012 is regarded as “ a freak year for safety ” in the eyes of experts on both safety and insurance. According to Flight global's Ascend consultancy, 2012 was an anomalous year for world airline safety. It was so good compared with all previous years that it is unlikely to be equaled for some time. 7. Ladies and Gentlemen , according to the Flight International Magazine Jan 2013 edition, there were 21 fatal airline accidents in 2012, resulting in a total of 425

deaths . This compares with respective figures in 2011 of 32 fatal airline accidents and 514 deaths . 8. Special Bulletin analyzing airline safety performance last year says, 2012 was another good year for safety, with the fatal accident rate falling from about 1 (one) per 1.4 million flights in 2011 to 1 (one) per 2.3 million flights in 2012. 9. Let us first see the state of the fatal accidents and fatalities of the last 10 years in global airline industry to understand the significance of year 2012. Blue line is the number of fatalities and the Red line is the number of fatal accidents. In the year 2003, the number of fatalities was 702, and number of fatal accidents was 27. In 2008, the number of fatalities was 583, and number of fatal accidents was 34. But, if you compare this statistics with 2012, you can see, the number of fatalities was 425, and number of fatal accidents was 21. Last 10 years rate of fatal accident is 28.2 and average fatalities are 691. By this, I think you can understand how exceptional the graph of 2012. 10. So, very well we can say that 2012 was certainly the safest year ever and on the face of it, 65% safer than 2011 , which itself had been labeled, " The Safest Year Ever". Ladies and Gentlemen , if you look on the graphical statistics of World Airline Fatal Accidents and Fatalities from 1992-2012, vertical line shows the number of flights in million. In the year, 1992 the rate of fatal accident was only one in 0.575 per million flights, in the year 2000, it was one fatal accident in one million flights, and finally in 2012, it one fatal accident in 2.4 million of flights. 11. Ladies and gentlemen, here you can see some of the images of fatal accidents occurred in 2012. 12. Now, let us watch a video clip on so far considered to be the Top five fatal accidents . (VIDEO) 13. However, unfortunately, we do not believe that the world's airlines have suddenly become this much safer and 2012's accident rate, perhaps, should be considered more of a fluke than the normal one. The logic behind this reasoning is very simple. Although, the statistical graph shows 2012 was almost twice safer than 2011, but since the aviation industry did not implement any special safety measure that could account for such a dramatic improvement. 14. Ladies and Gentlemen, let us see what are the possible factors responsible for fatal accidents of 2012. There are total 10, out of 21 fatal accidents occurred in the proximity of the destination R/W, mostly for bad weather and misjudgment by the pilots, which is almost 50% of the total accidents. The rest 50% accidents occurred due material failures and other factors. So, lets talk about the 50% accidents occurred due pilot and environmental factors. As per safety review done by Flight International magazine, as in recent years, 2012 accidents were almost all precipitated by pilot mis-judgment or mis-management. 15. As a leading article in Flight International stated: I quote “Pilots are the systems goal-keepers, but the system keeps banging own goals past the m.” I unquote. Individual organizations such as the Royal Aeronautical Society and the Flight Safety Foundation may be studying the subject of how pilot training needs to be improved, but regulations are showing little interest in mandating change, specially on a global basis.

16. The another factor for fatal accidents and the contrasting low fatalities is the number of small regional aircraft involved, mostly turbo props having relatively less passengers onboard. Indeed, statistically, the small, local operators have been stated as most vulnerable to accidents. Such statistics demand increasing safety awareness for the booming aviation industry of Bangladesh which features mostly small passenger aircraft. 17. On the other hand, in case of non-fatal accidents and serious incidents, runway excursions or over runs still appear to be the most common accident category, although it is too early to say whether the worldwide campaign to raise awareness of runway excursion risk is having any noticeable statistical effect. A significant number of the excursions involved landing on wet or otherwise contaminated runways, with the approaches carried out in stormy conditions. The aviation industry continues to face lesser number of fatal accidents even in the face of increasing number of flights across the world. As a member of global aviation industry, our civil aviation industry also shares a tiny fraction of this credit. Such trend is very much stimulating and rewarding for the flight safety goal of our booming aviation industry. Ladies & Gentlemen, 18. Having said so, let us see in which aspect we are likely to face new challenges within the changing dynamics of aviation industry in our airspace? The most imposing change we have been encountering in the recent time is the increasing number of scheduled and non- scheduled flight operating within our airspace. 19. The slide provides a general idea on the trend of number of flight in Bangladesh Air Space. Not only the statistics reflect a steady increment of non-scheduled flight, but also the scheduled flight reflects a trend of increasing number of flight. As you can see the month wise non-scheduled flight statistic in the year of 2012. 20. Here you can see the last five years comparison of non-schedule flight in Bangladesh air space. The possibility of occurrences is not far from happening if the existing safety measures are also not increased. 21. Now, I shall deliver BAF’s safety trend. Before the overview of the incidents of year 2012, I would like to present the total flying effort BAF has put in the last 30 years. In the first 15 years, beginning from 1982, every year BAF continued to generate more flying hours than the preceding year. For example, BAF achieved more than 8,700 hours in the year 1982 for which a total of 50 occurrences took place. By the end of 1996, the total hour achieved was 15,800 hours for which 90 occurrences took place. The flying effort actually doubled in this 15 years period. Expectedly, the number of occurrences increased with the increment of flying hours achieved. The average yearly occurrence rate from the year 1982 to 1996 numbered little more than 56 against yearly average flying of 12,500 hours as you can see on the screen. The average yearly flying hours from year 1997 to 2012 is little more than 20,000 hours. The average of occurrences for this period happened with little more than 76 per year. We have increased our flying effort by 80% in the last 15 years. In contrast, the average yearly occurrence increased by 30% only. The figure indicates improvement in flight safety because of the fact that the occurrence rate was brought down despite high rate of flying. The most damaging aspect of the period 1982-1996 was the number of fatalities that we experienced within that period. A total of 34 persons were killed out of the accidents. That makes the fatal rate of 2.23 per year. The figure was quite scary for a small Air Force like us. However, from the point of fatality, the figure stands as 15 in the last 15 years making 1(One) as average yearly fatality. The safety trend in BAF has improved in terms of fatality.