Future Directions for Global and Hemispheric Cooperation – the role of WMO Øystein Hov Norwegian Meteorological Institute, MSC-W, UiO chair OPAG EPAC of CAS (WMO) EMEP TFHTAP Brussels 15 June 2010
Protect life and property, safeguard the environment, contribute to sustainable development, promote long- Fluxes between the Earth’s term observation of met., hydrological, climatological surface and the data, incl related environmental data, promote atmosphere capacity-building, meet internl commitments Moisture, precipitation Heat Weather (incremental improvements in NWP) Momentum Radiative forcing - climate response UNFCCC (§ co- CO 2 and other GHGs benefits and tradeoffs; seasonal to decadal) PM physical and chemical Air quality – health National and regional regulations characterisation § Halocarbons and SF 6 Acid deposition – ecosystems CLRTAP to global § NO x Eutrophication – ecosystems CLRTAP to global § BDC NH 3 Visibility incl sand and dust storms (GAW, WWRP) VOC Surface ozone – crop loss CLRTAP to global § CO UV – health and crops Vienna Convention SO 2 Water availability and quality § HM Biodiversity BDC § POP Agriculture/food § § significant gains can be made through WMO contributions
WMO between operations, policy and research Atmospheric composition and health; ecosystems impact; climate change - the cycling of greenhouse gases and interaction with AQ incl SLCF; N r cycling; NWP improvement; sand and dust storms (CLRTAP; EU; IPCC; Nitrogen initiative) (WMO Executive Council Task Team (EC-RTT) report April 2009)
Summing up EC-RTT + GAW recommendations • GAW is mature but resource strapped • WMO should ensure that the capabilities related to meteorological observations, research models, and operations are used to – Link regional air pollution issues together in a global perspective – Air quality forecasting – NRT AMDAR like observations of chemical composition incl H 2 O – Air pollution and climate change interact both ways – Water cycle – water as a resource and a carrier of pollutants/nutrients – The reactive nitrogen issue • NMHS’s are under financial pressure. WMO member countries anyhow face these problematic issues and need to address them through the institutions they have. • NMHS’s and WMO are very well positioned through the capacity to observe, do research incl develop and apply models, operationalise, verify/validate, disseminate and reach out
CAS agrees that • changes in air pollution, climate and the biogeochemical cycles of trace chemicals in the atmosphere such as carbon and reactive nitrogen give rise to environmental problems. Meteorological processes often strongly influence their severity and rate of change. • The analysis and abatement of these problems requires an interdisciplinary approach both nationally and internationally. • The Commission urges WMO and its partners to intensify efforts to develop appropriate partnerships across disciplines nationally and internationally to address these challenges. • The Commission agrees that it is important to develop a common understanding of air pollution, its health impacts, its long range transmission and the interaction with weather and climate change. • The Commission agrees that many international conventions and initiatives would benefit greatly from a common approach developed with the help of WMO and its partners nationally and internationally. – the WMO co-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), – the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), – the WMO-UNEP supported Vienna Convention on Protection of the Ozone Layer, – the Reactive Nitrogen Initiative, the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) and its European component Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES), – the Convention for the Long Range Transmission of Air Pollutants (CLRTAP), the Mal é declaration and others.
8.3.4 Recommendation: WMO Members, including NMHSs and their national partners in other agencies and the WMO Secretariat, play a leading role in enhancing environmental observations, predictions and services and should: • Strengthen observations to support multiple scale air quality prediction. NRT data delivery. • Lead a global partnership to link globally the technical work on the regional/continental long range transport of air pollution. Includes delivery of environmental data for day-to-day assessment of the long (and very long) range transport of air pollution; hindcast analysis and scenario calculations. NRT of observations and forecasting. • Provide quantitative information on carbon dioxide emissions through GAW (recognized as the comprehensive network of the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS)). Support research as basis for a global carbon tracking system. DA, NWP, deduce net atmosphere/Earth surface carbon exchange and estimates of uncertainties; • Support the analysis of the reactive nitrogen cycle to advise and build capacity to minimize reactive nitrogen loss to waterways and to the atmosphere, while the use of reactive nitrogen fertilizer is enhanced in regions where food production is nitrogen deficient; • Take the lead in the technical analysis of how climate variability and change and air pollution interact both ways on a regional basis, and in combination on a global basis. • These are issues of immediate concern throughout the world affecting societies to an extent that is not well known but could be significant (air pollution events, floods, droughts; water supply, food supply etc.).
W I S Vision I ntegrated approach for all WMO Programmes to provide the RIGHT INFORMATION to the RIGHT PLACE at the RIGHT TIME through: • Routine collection and dissemination of time-critical and operations-critical data and products • Data Discovery, Access and Retrieval service • Timely delivery of data and products • Unified procedures • Coordinated and standardized metadata • External access (especially for metadata)
WI S Vision World Radiation Centre International Organizations GAW World Data Centres (IAEA, CTBTO, UNEP , FAO.. ) Regional Instrument GCOS Data Centres Centres Global Run-off Data Centre Global Precip. Climatology IRI, Hadley Centre, and Centre DCPC other climate research NC NC NC NC/ NC/ centres; Universities; Commercial DCPC DCP Regional Climate Centres Service Providers (CIIFEN, etc.) NC/ NC/ NC NC DCP DCPC NC NC GISC SC WMO World NC NC Data Centres GISC SC GISC SC International NC NC Projects (e.g. GMES DCPC DCPC HALO) GISC SC GISC SC Satellite Dissemination NC NC NC NC (IGDDS, RETIM, Satellite etc) Two-Way Systems NC NC Real-time “push” NC NC On-demand “pull”
UNECE CLRTAP (1979) http://www.unece.org/env/lrtap/full%20text/1979.CLRTAP.e.pdf §1: • "Air Pollution" means the introduction by man, directly or indirectly, of substances or energy into the air resulting in deleterious effects of such a nature as to endanger human health, harm living resources and ecosystems and material property and impair or interfere with amenities and other legitimate uses of the environment, and "air pollutants" shall be construed accordingly; • "Long-range transboundary air pollution" means air pollution whose physical origin is situated wholly or in part within the area under the national jurisdiction of one State and which has adverse effects in the area under the jurisdiction of another State at such a distance that it is not generally possible to distinguish the contribution of individual emission sources or groups of sources.
Science issues in the revised strategy (1) Keep the Generic science goal of EMEP • State and trends in acidification, eutrophication, surface ozone, PM, HM, POPs • Emission and trends, compliance • Transboundary source-receptor-relationships • Ecosystem recovery • Overall assessment and policy advice Air pollution changes with climate • 2010-2050: climate variability and change; consequences for atmospheric composition. Migration. Megacities. Exposed regions • Climate change adaptation will change energy consumption emissions (renewables including biofuels). • Long range transport of radiative forcing
Science issues in the revised strategy (2) Air quality and its effect on the population • Linking of scales. Transboundary component of population exposure • PM: physical and chemical characterization. Health effects (WHO) • POPs: identify new POPs, their cycle and impact • Biogeochemical cycle of Hg Atmospheric physical and biological processes • Fluxes soil-atmosphere, ocean-atmosphere • Reactive nitrogen cycle • Air pollution and the carbon cycle Overall assessment and scenarios • Co-benefits air pollution/air quality – climate – reactive nitrogen • Optimisation, sensitivity studies, scenario analysis as approaches to the testing of alternative policy measures
Globalisation of economies and emissions Claire Granier, CNRS
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