Air Pollu)on Mi)ga)on How to evaluate the best strategies ? augus)n.cole9e@ineris.fr French Na)onal Ins)tute for Industrial Environment and Risks Integrated Environmental Health Impact Assessment of Air Pollu9on and Climate Change in Mediterranean Areas Interna)onal Centre for Theore)cal Physics, Trieste, Italy 23-27 April, 2018
Integrated Assessment: op)misa)on problem Successive tes)ng different scenarios (« trial & error ») Air Pollutant Atmospheric Exposure to Air Human Ac)vity Impacts Emissions Concentra)ons Pollu)on Two-way « op)misa)on »: GAINS approach
Overview • Using Air Quality Models for Decision Support – Assessment • Long-term (climate) • Mid-term (2020-2030) – Forecast (days) • Trigger short term mi)ga)on measures • Raise awareness about the need of long term mi)ga)on
Overview • Using Air Quality Models for Decision Support – Assessment • Long-term (climate) • Mid-term (2020-2030) – Forecast (days) • Trigger short term mi)ga)on measures • Raise awareness about the need of long term mi)ga)on
Air quality under climate change
Air quality under climate change Cost Benefit Analysis
Emission projec)ons The global energy assessment of the • Interna)onal Energy Agency (2012) Primary energy consump)on in Europe: • Business as usual Mi)ga)on REF - Primary energy consumption - WEU&EEU GEOTHERMAL 140,00 SOLAR 120,00 WIND 100,00 HYDRO 100,00 90,00 BIOMASS 80,00 80,00 NUCLEAR EJ 70,00 60,00 GAS 60,00 50,00 OIL 40,00 40,00 COAL 30,00 20,00 20,00 10,00 0,00 0,00 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Future Air Quality: SOMO35 (sum of O3max > 35ppb) Historical 2050 Reference 2050 Mi9ga9on Difference % historical • Projec)ons: status-quo for the Reference, large decrease for the Mi)ga)on
Health impact assessment Air Pollu)on Popula)on- weighted pollu)on Popula)on density Rela)ve risk Mortality change (% increase per unit Death rate pollutant) Years of Life Lost Life table and Baseline Mortality age-vulnerability
Analyse Coût-Bénéfice 600 000 additional climate net additional costs, damage in M€/year in 2050 mitigation costs: costs: 3,500 107,000 500 000 400 000 300 000 REF 2050 No climate policy avoided health MIT 2050 Climate mi)ga)on (2°C) damage: 62,000 air pollution 200 000 mitigation cost savings: 42,000 100 000 - Energy Air pollution Health Total cost expenditure mitigation cost damage
Overview • Using Air Quality Models for Decision Support – Assessment • Long-term (climate) • Mid-term (2020-2030) – Forecast (days) • Trigger short term mi)ga)on measures • Raise awareness about the need of long term mi)ga)on
Assessing an emission reduc)on Plan French Na)onal Plan for the Reduc)on of Air • Pollutant Emissions (May 2017) Under the auspices of French Ministry of • Environment Consor)um of • – Energe)c prospec)ve – Air Pollutant emissions – Air Quality Modelling – Health impact assessment Indicators • – Legal – Acceptability – Environment (AQ) – Economics (cost/benefits)
List of mi)ga)on measures Euro 6 norms for ligh & heavy duty vehicles Electric and hybrid vehicles Increasing taxes on fuels
Quan)fica)on in an Air Quality Model Environmental: • – Chimere Chemistry Transport Model + Data Fusion • Benefit of the measure for background and peak pollu)on – Health benefits assessed with AlphaRiskPoll • include economic valua)on for cost benefit analysis Benefit on Benefit on % % [PM 10 ] of [NO 2 ] of high perf reducing wood stoves access to city centre
Impact on exceedances of regulatory thresholds
Overall impact on air quality • AQ synthe)c indicator Euro 6 norms for ligh & heavy duty vehicles Increasing taxes on fuels
Net benefits ( million €) TR9MA: increasing taxes on fuels TR2ME: Euro 6 Norms TR3ME: Electric and hybrid vehicles
Overview • Using Air Quality Models for Decision Support – Assessment • Long-term (climate) • Mid-term (2020-2030) – Forecast (days) • Trigger short term mi9ga9on measures • Raise awareness about the need of long term mi)ga)on
Forecasts: Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service
Interac)ve scenario analysis: CAMS Air Control Toolbox
CAMS ACT: How it works • Training scenarios Chimere – 3 days forecast (D+0, D+1, D+2) – 0.25deg resolu)on – • Emission reduc)on of training scenarios AGR 60%, AGR 100% – IND 60%, IND 100% – RH 90% – TRA 60%, TRA 100% – AGR 30% & IND 60% – TRA 100% & AGR100% – TRA 30% & IND 60% – • Surrogate model Non linear combina)on of the training senarios – Flexible web tool (immediate response) – 𝑆𝐹𝐺 = 𝐵𝐻𝑆 + 𝐵𝐻𝑆↑ 2 + 𝐽𝑂𝐸 + 𝐽𝑂𝐸↑ 2 + 𝑆𝐼 + 𝑈𝑆𝐵 + 𝑈𝑆𝐵↑ 2 + 𝐵𝐻𝑆 × 𝐽𝑂𝐸 + 𝑈𝑆𝐵 × 𝐵𝐻𝑆 + 𝑈𝑆𝐵 × 𝐽𝑂𝐸
CAMS ACT: non-lineari)es O3 daily max (Paris)
Case Studies • Contribu)ons to air pollu)on episodes: – Ac)vity sectors: • Traffic, industrial, residen)al, agriculture – Local / non-local sources
Tools • Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service: – Support to policy • h9p://policy.atmosphere.copernicus.eu/
Contribu)on of Ac)vity Sectors: CAMS Air Control Toolbox h9p://policy.atmosphere.copernicus.eu/CAMS_ACT.html •
Contribu)on of Ac)vity Sectors: CAMS Air Control Toolbox h9p://policy.atmosphere.copernicus.eu/CAMS_ACT.html • Raw Forecast (exclude natural sources) • – Adjust color bar => update Select • – Date – Pollutant – Level of reduc)on of air pollutants (100%) – Update colorbar!
Contribu)on of local sources: CAMS City Alloca)on h9p://policy.atmosphere.copernicus.eu/DailySourceAlloca)on.html • Select • – City – Pollutant – Model=EMEP – Date
Case Study Contribu)on of ac)vity sectors • – h9p://policy.atmosphere.copernicus.eu/CAMS_ACT.html – Raw Forecast (exclude natural sources) • Episodes: – Adjust color bar => update – Date – Ac)vity Sectors – Pollutant – Level of reduc)on of air pollutants (100%) – Update colorbar! • 2016/12/01 PM10 Contribu)on of local/non-local sources • • 2015/03/18 PM10 – h9p://policy.atmosphere.copernicus.eu/ • 2017/06/21 O3 DailySourceAlloca)on.html – Local sources City – Pollutant – • 2016/12/01 versus 2016/12/06 PM10 Model=EMEP – Date –
20161201: PM10 Reference
20150318: PM10 Reference
20170621: O3
Source Appor)onment • 20150318 PM10 / 20161201 PM10 / 20170621 O3
City Alloca)on: December 1st versus December 6th 2016 (PM10)
City Alloca)on: June 21 2018 (O3)
Benefits of long term ac)on 20161201, PM 10 Under NEC2030 emissions Applying na9on-wide emission reduc9ons as defined in the 2030 NEC objec9ves, the episode would have been much smaller
INERIS Youtube Channel https://youtu.be/xuUsEOL0Lj8
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