Formation of environment protection strategy for risk and - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Formation of environment protection strategy for risk and uncertainty diminution ( EnviroRisk project) V.V. Penenko and E.A. Tsvetova ICM&MG SB RAS Novosibirsk

1.Optimal design • Satisfying the criteria and limitations of ecological safety and sustainability, social and economic suitability and effectiveness. • Goal is to define the admissible values of parameters for the entire period of functioning the object. • Risk assessment of “beyond-the-project” situations

2. Optimal management • The main goal is to find the mechanisms of source parameters regulation via the feedback in accordance with the given criteria and restrictions in tracking the situation development . • Parameters of sources might be changed with time.

3. Ecological audit • The goal is to answer the question if the safety norms are fulfilled or not • if not – revealing unknown ( unrecorded) sources – parameters correction • Risk assessment of “beyond-the-project” situations

Universal technology for environmental modeling (1) • Functionals – goal and quality – restrictions: equality-type, inequality-type – observational – augmented (listed above+ the model in variational form)

General form of functionals ∫ r r r Φ ϕ = ϕ χ = ( ) ( ) ( , ) , 1 ,..., F x t dDdt k K k k k D t F are the functions of the given form, k χ ∈ ℑ χ * ( ) dDdt D , D are Radon’s measures on . k t k t Quality functionals ∫ r r r r r r Φ ϕ = ϕ − ϕ ϕ − ϕ χ T ( ) ( ) M ( ) ( x , t ) dDdt , k m m k D t “Measurement” functionals K ∑ ∫ r r r r r r Φ ϕ = ϕ δ − ∈ m ( ) ( x , t ) ( x x ) dDdt , x D mk mk t = k 1 D t Restriction functionals r r r r ϕ ≤ ϑ ϕ ≤ ( x , t ) N , ( ( x , t ) 0 distributive constraints k ∫ r r r Φ ϕ = ϑ ϕ + ϑ ϕ χ r ( ) ( ( ) ( ) ) ( x , t ) dDdt k k k k D t

Universal technology for environmental modeling (2) • Optimal numerical schemes constructed with the help of variational principle for bistationary conditions of augmented functional • A set of algorithms of forward and inverse modeling for each augmented functional • Sensitivity and uncertainty functions and sensitivity relations for each set of functionals !! Data compression to exclude the inner degrees of freedom

Universal technology for environmental modeling (3) • Algorithms for development of optimal strategies in space of external degrees of freedom with respect to goal functionals by means of sensitivity relations analysis

Priorities ( as formulated in 2007) • Uncertainty assessment • Atmospheric chemistry ( gases + aerosols) – algorithms for stiff systems – problem of non-consistency: monotonizators, self- limiting diffusion for divers components – chemical data assimilation ( adjoint problems and sensitivity algorithms) – adaptive algorithms • Targeting for data assimilation, risk assessment • Revealing unknown sources • Optimal problems for design of sustainable development strategy

Siberian Federal District. Tomsk industrial region as aggregated source of pollution Animation

Acknowledgements The work is supported by •RFBR Grant 07-05-00673 • Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences Program 16 •Department of Mathematical Science of RAS Program 1.3. •European Commission contract No 013427