Planning Planning for or the the Futur Future(s) e(s) Gu Guidanc idance e on A on ACE CES S Consider Consideratio tions ns int into Lon o Long g Range T Range Transp anspor orta tation tion Plans Plans AM AMPO Conf PO Confer erence ence September 26, 2018 September 26, 2018 SEPTEMBER 2018
Agend Agenda • Definitions • Purpose & Approach • Guide Overview • Key Findings • Questions Source: www.tmcnet.com
ACES CES Defined Defined
Purpose Pur pose & A & Appr pproac oach Volkswagen expects first self driving cars on the market by 2019 GM states autonomous cars could be deployed by 2020 or sooner BMW to launch autonomous iNext in 2021 First autonomous Toyota to be available in 2020 NVIDIA to introduce level-4 enabling system by 2018 Ford CEO announces fully autonomous vehicles for mobility service by 2021 Audi to introduce a self-driving car by 2020 NuTonomy to provide self driving taxi service in Singapore by 2018 Delphi and MobilEye to provide off the shelf driving system by 2019 Uber fleet to be driverless by 2030. Source: http://www.driverless-future.com/?page_id=384
Pur Purpose pose & A & Appr pproac oach Literature Review MPO Survey and Interviews FHWA scenarios 4-step Travel Demand Modeling
ACES CES Planning Planning Pr Proce ocess ss
ACES CES Planning Planning Pr Proce ocess ss
Polic olicy y Guide Guide at t a Glance a Glance • Technology Overview • Planning Processes • Safety Impacts • Education & Engagement • Travel Demand Impacts • Considerations • Highway System Impacts • Transit System Impacts • Funding Impacts This graphic image is from www.bing.com and licensed under CC BY
Key P ey Points: oints: Saf Safety ety Received Benefit Technology • Fatalities in Florida are ▼ 27% Front-to-rear crashes Forward collision warning on the rise, ACES may ▼ 20% Front-to-rear crashes with injuries ▼ 7% Claim rates for damage to other vehicles help reverse the ▼ 14% Claim rates for injuries to people in other vehicles fatalities trend. ▼ 50% Front-to-rear crashes Forward collision warning plus autobrake ▼ 56% Front-to-rear crashes with injuries ▼ 13% Claim rates for damage to other vehicles ▼ 21% Claim rates for injuries to people in other vehicles • During transition, ▼ 11% Single-vehicle, sideswipe and head-on crashes Lane departure warning ▼ 21% Injury crashes of same types partial automation may ▼ 14% Lane-change crashes Blind spot detection ▼ 23% Lane-change crashes with injuries increase risks ▼ 9% Claim rates for damage to other vehicles associated with ▼ 12% Claim rates for injuries to people in other vehicles ▼ 62% Backing crashes Rear automatic braking distracted driving. ▼ 13% Claim rates for damage to the insured vehicle ▼ 26% Claim rates for damage to other vehicles ▼ 17% Backing crashes Rearview cameras ▼ 22% Backing crashes Rear cross-traffic alert Source: IIHS
Key P ey Points: oints: T Transit ansit • ACES may indirectly reduce demand for transit but create opportunities for more cost effective and customer friendly service. • MPOs are in a unique position to help local transit agencies adapt by transforming into “mobility managers” that help broker trips using multiple providers across an area.
Key P ey Points: oints: Fund Funding ing • Financial scenarios can help evaluate the impact on MPO fiscally constrained capital programs. • Transportation funding relies heavily upon the motor fuel tax; the future of which is uncertain. • Coordination with federal and state agencies is crucial to develop new funding mechanisms that will be successful in the face of ACES.
Key P ey Points: oints: Planning Planning Pr Proce ocesses sses • ACES will transform performance-based planning and, with it, the types of projects MPOs prioritize and plan. • Collecting, storing, and the use of data will change • Finding locally meaningful data may require MPOs to conduct or participate in pilot ACES projects.
Key P ey Points: oints: Enga Engageme gement nt • ACES introduces equity and other issues that may affect how MPOs define their community visions, goals and performance measures. • MPOs will face new and perhaps unprecedented demands on public engagement staff, resources and technical knowledge to address new needs and new stakeholders. • ACES opens up new and more complex communication needs and opportunities across many broad topic areas.
Consider Considerations tions Topics opics Education and Engagement Pla lanning – Fiscal, Urb rban Modeling Policy Project Generation and Pri rioritization
Considerations Conside tions – Educa Education and Enga tion and Engagement gement 4 Identify and develop staff skills and knowledge on advances in ACES to help them better inform and serve the public, local decision-makers and other participants in the planning process. 1 Coordinate with other organizations regarding ACES communication roles and responsibilities. 2 Report ACES impact on transportation system performance and other community vision, goals, objectives and assets. 3 Collaborate with the private sector to deploy ACES technologies in more uniform, predictable ways. 4 Identify and develop staff skills and knowledge on advances in ACES to help them better inform and serve the public, local decision-makers and other participants in the planning process. 5 Help the public understand ACES technology so that community decisions about related investments and impacts are made in a timely, factual and sustainable fashion. 6 Develop a roadmap of appropriate interactions between MPOs and industry, legislatures, federal government and others to facilitate ACES deployment and accelerate the accompanying societal benefits. 7 Consider developing an ACES committee to inform other policy committees on the trade-offs of ACES. 8 Develop an industry council to identify opportunities for private-sector ACES interactions and collaboration.
Consider Considerations tions – Fiscal Fiscal Planning Planning 1 Determine potential effects of ACES on infrastructure funding, revenue sources and stakeholder support. 1 Determine potential effects of ACES on infrastructure funding, revenue sources and stakeholder support. 2 Explore funding scenarios to evaluate effects of revenue shortfalls and alternative revenue sources on capital programs. 3 Investigate road pricing and other non-traditional funding sources that better support desired community outcomes. 4 Coordinate with ACES committee and the public to weigh the benefits and drawbacks of non-traditional funding sources to determine whether there is the political will to adopt and sustain those sources in support of a community vision. 5 Coordinate with federal and state agencies to ensure that new funding mechanisms create opportunities to replace local revenue sources disrupted by ACES. 6 Capitalize on the funding opportunities at federal, state and/or local funds.
Consider Considerations tions – Urban Urban Planning Planning b. Identify and prioritize major corridors where fixed route transit can be most effective in an ACES future and plan for supporting transit features and land use. 1 Refine or revise MPO goals in light of ACES opportunities, impacts and uncertainties. 2 Link local ACES-related long-term goals with state and federal goals to take advantage of benefits and future opportunities. 3 Use regular planning processes such as development of unified work program and scenario planning to capture new data and trends that can be used to achieve regional vision and goals. 4 Transit Planning a. Reconsider current transit development plan in light of ACES-related opportunities and threats. b. Identify and prioritize major corridors where fixed route transit can be most effective in an ACES future and plan for supporting transit features and land use. c. Support integration of transportation payment and trip planning systems across public and private mobility service providers d. Identify locations for mobility hubs where flexible taxi services can interface with fixed route transit. 5 Performance Measures a. Develop and continually refine a flexible approach to determining ACES-driven system performance needs and measures. b. Create and test new or refined performance measures that better reflect federal and state regulatory requirements while better meeting community needs, preferences and expectations. 6 Smart Cities Work with municipalities and the private sector to define, collect and share “smart cities” data relevant to long -range planning a. b. Facilitate regional or subarea studies and pilot projects that address vehicle charging in the public right-of-way, renewable energy b. Create and test new or refined performance measures that better reflect generation, supporting power systems and other features of the EV ecosystem. federal and state regulatory requirements while better meeting c. Partner in pilot ACES projects to begin addressing the uncertainties ACES presents. community needs, preferences and expectations.
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