AOMSUC-10 Melbourne, Australia 2-7 December 2019 Space-based Weather and Climate Extremes Monitoring Demonstration Project (SEMDP) for Asia-Pacific Yuriy Kuleshov 1,2,3 , Toshiyuki Kurino 4 and Werner Balogh 4 1 Australian Bureau of Meteorology 2 Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology (RMIT) University 3 The University of Melbourne 4 World Meteorological Organization
Outline Introduction to SEMDP Early achievements of SEMDP regional cooperation SEMDP links
SEMDP Space-based Weather and Climate Extremes Monitoring Demonstration Project
Introduction - SEMDP • Recognizing high impact of weather and climate extremes on society, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) initiated the Space-based Weather and Climate Extremes Monitoring (SWCEM) Demonstration Project (SEMDP). • Provision of timely and accurate information on monitoring and prediction of extreme events helps to build greater resilience of society against drought, floods, storms and other hydro-meteorological hazards.
Introduction - SEMDP The Workshop on Space-based Weather and Climate Extremes Monitoring (SWCEM) was held in Geneva, Switzerland on 15- 17 February, 2017.
Introduction - SEMDP The Workshop provided a dialogue amongst satellite operators, WMO Regional Climate Centres (RCCs), National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs), and the science community to stimulate the utilization of space-based observation data and products for monitoring selected weather and climate extremes (heavy rainfall and drought in particular) on a routine basis (“in operations”), in response to current and future user requirements.
Introduction - SEMDP • Following the workshop’s recommendations, WMO Executive Council at its sixty ninth session (EC-69), Decision 6 agreed on importance of Space-based Extreme Weather and Climate Extremes Monitoring (SWCEM) • EC-70, Decision 36 – Development of the Space-based Weather and Climate Extremes Monitoring Demonstration Project (SEMDP) in WMO RA II and RA V • The SEMDP was established to run in demonstration phase for two years (2018-2019) and be focused on weather and climate extremes such as drought and heavy precipitations over East Asia and Western Pacific.
Introduction - SEMDP • WMO Cg-18 - recognizing significant achievements of SEMDP in Asia-Pacific, adopted project implementation plan for 2020-2021 • WMO Cg-18 – to progress with the implementation of the SWCEM regional operational subproject in East Asia and Western Pacific • WMO Cg-18 – to consider the possibility of implementing similar projects in Africa (RA I) and South America (RA III)
Early achievements of SEMDP regional cooperation
SEMDP Products SEMDP is concentrated on products at national and regional levels in Asia-Pacific: monitoring drought and accumulated heavy precipitation; making best use of existing and newly developed satellite derived products and time series of measurements; making best use of products that combine satellite information with in-situ and/or model reanalysis data; recommendations as to which products should be transitioned from research to operations, including an assessment of those products.
Global Satellite-derived Product Providers Global Satellite-derived Product Providers for SEMDP – JAXA and NOAA EORC/JAXA provides the Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP; Kubota et al. 2007) data for detecting e xtreme precipitation GSMaP data are available since March 2000; thresholds for detecting the extreme events are calculated using the GSMaP data during 19 years from March 2000 to February 2019. Kubota T, Shige S, Hashizume H, Aonashi K, Takahashi N, Seto S, Hirose M, Takayabu YN, Ushio T, Nakagawa K, Iwanami K, Kachi M & Okamoto K. Global Precipitation Map Using Satellite-borne Microwave Radiometers by the GSMaP Project: Production and Validation. IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing. 2007:45(7, part 2):2259-2275. DOI: 10.1109/TGRS.2007.895337
Global Satellite-derived Product Providers CPC/NOAA provides SEMDP users with a similar set of products using the Climate Prediction Center morphing technique (CMORPH; Xie et al. 2017); satellite precipitation estimates are available since 1998. In addition to precipitation estimates, derived products – the SPI, the NDVI and the VHI are also available for the SEMDP region. Analysis of GSMaP and CMORPH data for SEMDP region demonstrated that extreme events could be successfully detected using space-based estimations of precipitation. Xie P, Joyce R, Wu S, Yoo S-H, Yarosh Y, Sun F & Lin R. Reprocessed, Bias-Corrected CMORPH Global High-Resolution Precipitation Estimates from 1998. Journal of Hydrometeorology. 2017:18(6):1617-1641. DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-16-0168.1.
SEMDP Operational Products Mean precipitation estimates hourly daily (00-23UTC) pentad (5-day) weekly (Monday – Sunday) 10-days monthly Statistics : Climate normal 90th ～ 99th Percentiles Percentage of rainy days (>=1mm/day) in a month Indices : SPI, NDVI, VHI EORC/JAXA GSMaP 10-day average precipitation, mm/day (11-20 Nov 2019)
Extreme Precipitation Monitoring Using SEMDP Products EORC/JAXA GSMaP monitoring of extreme rainfall for daily, pentad and weekly precipitation, e.g. 8-12 October 2018.
Drought Monitoring Using SEMDP Products CPC/NOAA CMORPH 60-day and 90-day SPI ending at December 2nd, 2018.
Drought Monitoring Using SEMDP Products CPC/NOAA CMORPH VHI for 1-7 January 2015 and 3-9 December 2015.
Drought Monitoring Using SEMDP Products SPI for Australia in August 2007 derived Rainfall deciles for Australia in from the EORC/JAXA GSMaP data. August 2007; BoM rain gauge observations.
Heavy Precipitation Monitoring Using SEMDP Products EORC/JAXA GSMaP rainfall percentile Australian rainfall deciles for over Australia for December 2010. December 2010; BoM rain gauge observations.
The 2015-2016 drought in PNG • In PNG, severe drought caused by strong El Niño event in 2015-2016 affected about 40% of the population with almost half a million people impacted by food shortages • Staple sweet potato crops in the highlands were severely damaged by frosts in August 2015 – the result of El Niño reducing night-time cloud cover – which also destroyed wild plants that are usually eaten as a supplement source of food.
PNG surface-based observations In PNG, surface-based observations are available from a very limited number of meteorological stations
Drought Monitoring Using SEMDP Products Rainfall anomaly in October 2015 Rainfall in October 2015 Drought monitoring in PNG using EORC/JAXA GSMaP data. Rainfall percentage in October 2015 Rainfall anomaly (the difference from average) and rainfall percentage for October 2015 demonstrate severe drought conditions in PNG. Results show that a warning of extreme rainfall deficits possible utilising satellite observations
Drought Monitoring Using SEMDP Products Drought monitoring in PNG using EORC/JAXA GSMaP data. Satellite data are used to derive drought indices such as SPI, NVDI, and VHI, measuring how much greenery and how water stressed is the landscape. 3-month VHI till October 2015 clearly indicates that PNG vegetation is stressed giving warning of high impacts.
Summary WMO SEMDP Drought monitoring and Heavy precipitation monitoring Satellite precipitation estimates – EORC/JAXA and CPC/NOAA Derived products and indices e.g. SPI, NDVI, VHI SEMDP products - encouraging results WMO Cg18 – transition of SEMDP to operations
Acknowledgement CMORPH products – CPC/NOAA GSMaP products – EORC/JAXA
SEMDP Links WMO Portal https://public.wmo.int/en/space-based-weather-and- climate-extremes-monitoring-swcem
SEMDP Links – WMO Portal https://public.wmo.int/en/space-based-weather-and- climate-extremes-monitoring-swcem
SEMDP Links – Satellite-derived products
SEMDP Links – EORC/JAXA GSMaP
SEMDP Links – EORC/JAXA GSMaP
SEMDP Links – EORC/JAXA GSMaP
SEMDP Links – EORC/JAXA GSMaP
SEMDP Links – EORC/JAXA GSMaP
SEMDP Links – EORC/JAXA GSMaP
SEMDP Links – EORC/JAXA GSMaP
SEMDP Links – EORC/JAXA GSMaP
BoM - Rainfall Deciles January 2011
SEMDP Links – EORC/JAXA GSMaP
SEMDP Links – EORC/JAXA GSMaP
SEMDP Links – EORC/JAXA GSMaP
SEMDP Links – EORC/JAXA GSMaP
SEMDP Links – EORC/JAXA GSMaP
SEMDP Links – EORC/JAXA GSMaP
SEMDP Links – EORC/JAXA GSMaP
BoM - Rainfall Deciles JJA 2007
SEMDP Links – EORC/JAXA GSMaP
SEMDP Links – EORC/JAXA GSMaP
SEMDP Links – EORC/JAXA GSMaP
SEMDP Links – EORC/JAXA GSMaP
SEMDP Links – EORC/JAXA GSMaP
BoM – Rainfall August 2007
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