Soil as Sustainable Resource for Food security of Pakistan Prof. Dr. Javaid Akhtar Director, Institute of Soil and Environmental Sciences UNIVERSITY OF AGRICULTURE, FAISALABAD
What is Food Security? There exists food security when all people at all times have access to sufficient, safe, nutritious food to maintain a healthy and active life” This is a function of Food availability : the amount of food physically available to a household or at the national level. Food access : the physical (e.g. road network, market) and economical (e.g. own production, purchase) ability of a household to acquire adequate amounts of food. Food utilization : the intra-household use of the food accessible and the individual’s ability to absorb and use nutrients. (World Food Summit, 1996)
Demographic outlook By 2050, UN predict a global population of 9.6 billions The majority of these people will leave in Asia or Africa, where conditions do not favor agriculture Global food production must increase by 3% annually to 2050. 94% of all food originates from terrestrial environments (FAOSTAT, 2011)
The global food system is experiencing Multiple challenges…. 1. Demand increasing: we need to boost production by about 650 m mt by now and 2023 (additional 540 million acres). Number of food-insecure people has fallen from 959 million to 780 million (37% to 17%) 2. Agriculture sector has to generate jobs and incomes to poverty eradication 3. It has a major role to play in ensuring the sustainability of natural resources for future and in combating climate change . 4. 1/3rd of the global land resources have already lost its potential due to various degradation problems. (Six million ha per year = UK)
• 60% of Population experiencing food insecurity (78/109)
Im Impact of f glo lobal warming and cli limate change
Projected change in agricultural production due to climate change “ Climate change affects agricultural production through its effects on the timing, intensity and variability of rainfall and shifts in temperatures and carbon dioxide concentrations ” (Guardian Apr 13 2013)
In addition to that….. Urbanization as a confounding factor • Urban sprawl around cities and regional centres results in conversion of agricultural land into other uses • In Australia, this trend has already resulted in a loss of 10 % of agricultural land over the last 10 years
A case study: drought stress Pakistan “Pakistan’s water crisis has become increasingly visible in recent months: levels in the largest dams are low; parched irrigation canals mean farmers in the south planted less cotton; and the commercial capital Karachi has long queues at hydrants” Per capita water availability dropped from 5,000 m 3 in 1947 to 1,000 m 3 in 2018 Australia • 2006 drought costed Australian economy 1% of the GDP • In 2018 Australia experienced the biggest drought in 800 years
2050 2050 One 2050 2050 2010 2010 hectare tare 330 330 One to feed ed millio ion n hectare tare 11.2 2 people ple to feed d 2010 2010 people ple 5.3 174 174 people ple millio ion n people ple 1950 1950 One hectare tare to feed d 1950 1950 1.6 38 38 people ple millio ion n people ple
Implication for food security Annual crop production should increase by 38% compared with historical trends Not achievable with exiting practices Crop production systems will need to move into marginal lands to meet growing foods demand Tester & Langridge (2010) Science This requires a major shift in a current paradigm of crop growing and breeding
Most world water is saline • Agriculture accounts for ~ 70 % of the freshwater • To meet food demand water withdrawn by irrigated agriculture will need to increase by 11%
Land salinization is progressing Rain water EC 10-30 mg/L (add salt 10 kg/ha for 100 mm rainfall) Irrigation water (with EC 500 mg/L) (add 0.5 t of salt /1000 m 3 ) since crops require 6000-10,000m 3 /ha/year water i.e. 3-5 t of salt adding each year in the soil Underground saline water Raising water tables of saline aquifers (with EC 2 - 45 dS/m) due to increased recharge & use of saline water Recycle water or drainage water from industry Discharge of saline effluents from drainage or industry (EC 2- 10 dS/m)
Foundation of food production The th thin la layer of f soil covering th the Many essential ecosystem services earth's surface re represents th the Storing and supplying more clean water dif ifference between surv rvival Maintaining biodiversity and ext xtinction for most terrestrial Sequestering carbon life.” Increasing resilience in a changing climate
Land is a finite resource…… Land Use in Pakistan
Some Facts of our Soil/Land resources • More than 50% of agricultural Lands are moderately to severely degraded. • Land Degradation directly affects 1,5 billion people globally. • 75 billion tons of fertile soil disappear/year • 12 million ha/Year lost due to drought and desertification. • Six million km 2 of drylands bear a legacy of desertification. • Biodiversity: 27,000 species lost each year due to LD IT REQUIRES 1000 YEARS FOR CREATING 3 CM OF TOPSOIL
Global status of human-induced soil degradation Very high severity High severity Moderate severity Low severity Stable Land, Ice Caps or Soil is eroding faster than it is forming on more than one- third of the world’s cropland non-used wasteland
Green revolution and Soil Resources • Of the productivity increase, it has been estimated that about 70% is due to the intensification of agriculture, 30% is a result of new land being brought into production. • It must be highlighted that the doubling of global food production during the past decades has also led to the degradation and exhaustion of soil and land. • Over the past 50 years, the world’s net cultivated area has grown by 12%, mostly at the expense of forest, wetlands and grassland habitats. At the same time, the global irrigated area has doubled. • FAO models estimate about 25% of land to be highly degraded. • The overall effects of soil degradation pose a major threat to food security especially in poor regions.
Soil Health: Deteriorating balance in NPK
Where will the food come from? Breeding & Biotechnology 250% Farm Practices Reduced 80% Losses Land 100% 50% 20% (-5%) Future Crop Current Crop Production Production
By 2050, the demand for new agricultural land is expected to increase by about 50%. FAO suggest that, by 2030, an additional 81 to 147 million ha of cropland will be needed compared to the yr 2000 baseline. Future Outlook It is very probable that tropical forests will account for that land; therefore, further deforestation is to be expected, together with an exacerbation of soil degradation.
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