Florida Votes 2016 Dr. Susan A. MacManus @DrMacManus University of South Florida, Tampa Dept. of Govt. & Intl. Affairs Anthony Cilluffo, Georgia Pevy, David Bonanza Research Associates Election Workshop Orlando, FL January 12, 2017 SLIDESHOW FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY
Predictions Wrong Sabato’s Crystal Ball RealClearPolitics Clinton: 322 Clinton: 272 Trump: 216 Trump: 266 The view on November 7, 2016
Electoral College Result Trump: 304 Clinton: 227
Republican share of vote increased heavily In large portions of the country USA Today, November 9, 2016
Gubernatorial Presidential Scott 48.9% Obama 50.0% Sink 47.7% Romney 49.1% 1%! Turnout: 49% Turnout: 72% Scott 48.2% Trump 49.0% Crist 47.1% Clinton 47.8% Turnout: 50% Turnout: 74%
Florida: Premier Battleground State
Media Market Definitions
Florida Division of Elections, General Election Book Closing Statistics
Clinton Underperformed Obama in Every Media Market but Miami
Clinton improved DEM margin in 2 markets, Trump improved REP margin in 8 markets
Voter Turnout Up in Seven Media Markets; Down in Three
Trump Carried the I-4 Corridor by a Comfortable Margin
Who Voted and How?
Florida Division of Elections, General Election Book Closing Statistics
Clinton’s private emails ‘bothered’ 2/3 of FL voters Source: National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Research as reported by CNN
Trump’s treatment of women ‘bothered’ 2/3 of FL voters Source: National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Research as reported by CNN
After initial doubts, both candidates held on to their party bases; Independents broke for Trump Source: National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Research as reported by CNN
Highest Third-Party Candidate Support Demographics: • Younger than 40 • Men more than women • Independents • Religiously unaffiliated (‘secular’) Candidate Qualities: • See both candidates unfavorably • Believe that neither candidate is honest, qualified, or has the right temperament
Florida Division of Elections, General Election Book Closing Statistics
Female vote more divided than projected Source: National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Research as reported by CNN
Gender Gap: FL
Florida Division of Elections, General Election Book Closing Statistics
Hispanics & Blacks larger share of electorate, but less cohesive than in 2012 Source: National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Research as reported by CNN
Diversity within the Hispanic vote: Cuban vote leaned Trump, 26% of Other Latinos go for Trump Source: National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Research as reported by CNN
Racial/Ethnic Vote: FL
Florida Division of Elections, General Election Book Closing Statistics
Younger voters less solidly for Clinton than Obama in ‘08 or ‘12 Source: National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Research as reported by CNN
Religion in Florida (Pew) Religious Group U.S. Florida (%) (%) Christian 71 70 Evangelical Protestants 25 24 Mainline Protestants 15 14 Historically Black Protestants 7 8 Catholic 21 21 Non-Christian Faiths 6 6 Jewish 2 3 Muslim, Buddhist, Hindu, other <1 <1 Unaffiliated (“no religion,” secular) 23 24
Christian voters supported Trump; Other religions and ‘seculars’ went for Clinton Source: National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Research as reported by CNN
Rural and Suburban vote critical to Trump Victory Source: National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Research as reported by CNN
Urban-Suburban-Rural Split Source: National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Research as reported by CNN
Top Election Issues
Economy and Terrorism Topping Voter’s Minds in Presidential Race Issue % Extremely/Very Important Issue % Very Important – The Economy 92 – The Economy 84 – Employment and Jobs 89 – Terrorism 80 – Terrorism and Nat’l Security 87 – Foreign Policy 75 – Education 86 – Health Care 74 – Healthcare and ACA 83 – Gun Policy 72 – Immigration 70 Survey date: June 15-26, 2016 Gallup Poll, May 18-22, 2016, of 1,530 U.S. adults. Margin of error ±3%
Economy and Terrorism Topped FL Voter’s Minds in Presidential Race Source: National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Research as reported by CNN
A Look at Florida Incomes • Median Salary in Florida: $28,236 • Average Salary in Florida: $39,099 • 65% of Florida workers earn less than the average salary
Florida’s Shrinking Middle Class Change, Average Share of Class 2009-2014 Income Households Upper +8.1% $118,847 18.9% Middle -3.5% $39,275 49.1% Lower +1.1% $12,098 32.0%
FL Voters who feel financially stagnant or worse off sided with Trump Source: National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Research as reported by CNN
Most FL voters have negative opinion of condition of national economy, 2/3 sided with Trump Source: National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Research as reported by CNN
Americans Distrustful of Govt.
73% of FL voters have negative view of federal government; most voted for Trump Source: National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Research as reported by CNN
Nearly half of FL voters believe Obamacare ‘went too far,’ 77% voted for Trump Source: National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Research as reported by CNN
Racial equity views differ for Clinton and Trump supporters Source: National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Research as reported by CNN
Clinton and Trump supporters differ on views of fairness of criminal justice system Source: National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Research as reported by CNN
Most FL voters believe climate change is a serious problem; huge partisan differences Source: National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Research as reported by CNN
Direction of the Country
FL voters split on Obama’s performance as President; huge partisan differences in voting Source: National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Research as reported by CNN
Plurality of FL voters looking for change overwhelmingly supported Trump Source: National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Research as reported by CNN
Candidate Qualities & Campaign Approaches
Source: National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Research as reported by CNN
Slogans Matter!
Campaign Organization: Conventional Wisdom Shattered? • Campaign offices across state • Visits: when, where, how many • TV ads vs. GOTV efforts
Two Approaches to Voter Mobilization: Top-Down or Bottom-Up?
NBC News, November 13, 2016
Too much Clinton reliance on TV ads? FL Congressman Alcee Hastings, September 2, 2016: “To date, the Clinton campaign has spent $22.3 million on television [in Florida] – $22.3 million. You give me and… [the county DECs around the state] $22 million and I’ll produce more votes for you than a damn television ad.”
Florida TV ad spending
Top 10 National Media Markets for Presidential TV Advertising Media Market Amount • Orlando-Daytona Beach-Melbourne, FL $26.9 million • Tampa-St. Petersburg-Sarasota, FL $22.3 million • Cleveland-Akron, OH $16.6 million • Las Vegas, NV $16.3 million • Charlotte, NC $13.8 million • Philadelphia, PA $13.3 million • Columbus, OH $11.3 million • Boston, MA $10.8 million • West Palm Beach-Ft. Pierce, FL $ 9.7 million • Denver, CO $ 8.8 million
Polling consistently gave a false narrative of an assured Clinton victory
Florida Pre-Election Polls: A Wild Ride! Trump Actual: 49.0 Clinton Actual: 47.8
USF-NIELSEN STATEWIDE SURVEY: FOCUS ON ISSUES AND POLICIES sunshinestatesurvey.org
Gallup, latest survey conducted October 25-26, 2016
Source: National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Research as reported by CNN
The Four “2’s” of 2016 • Too long • Too negative • Too expensive • Too divisive
Turnout Higher in All Elections in 2016
Florida Picks Winners!
Looking Ahead • Major activities • Challenges – Online registration Constitutional Revision Commission – Competitive – Open primary gubernatorial race (both parties) – Nonpartisan – U.S. Senate race Supervisors (Nelson seat) Constitutional – Millennials Amendment Drives — – Organizing & Felon Voting Rights mobilizing
CONGRATS FLORIDA SUPERVISORS No Recount Here!
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