Florida Public Service Commission 2013 Ten-Year Site Plan Workshop - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Florida Public Service Commission 2013 Ten-Year Site Plan Workshop FRCC Presentation Stacy Dochoda President and CEO September 25, 2013

Agenda Executive Summary FRCC Load & Resource Plan  Load Forecast, Generation Additions, Reserve Margins, Fuel Mix  Renewable Resources and Demand Side Management (DSM) FRCC Fuel Reliability  Natural Gas Energy Production in Florida  Natural Gas Infrastructure in Florida FRCC Transmission Planning  FRCC Regional Transmission Planning Process  Crystal River Unit Retirements  Status of FERC Order 1000 2 2

Florida Reliability Coordinating Council The purpose of the Florida Reliability Coordinating Council is to promote and enhance the reliability and adequacy of the bulk electricity supply in Florida, now and into the future. 3 3

Executive Summary ∎ Planned Reserve Margins > 20% (although resource mix is changing towards greater dependency upon Demand Side Management resources) ∎ Demand Response 1/ reduces load (MW) at peak by 7% throughout the 10-year horizon ∎ Utility-sponsored Energy Efficiency/Energy Conservation programs reduce load (MW) at peak by 2.8% by 2022 ∎ Additional Energy Efficiency delivered through mandated codes and standards accounted for in load forecast reduces load (MW) at peak by at least 3.7% by 2022 ∎ Renewables are 3,150 GWh (1.2%) of energy served by 2022 4 4 1/ Demand Response = Load Control + Interruptible programs; i.e. dispatchable DSM

Executive Summary (Continued) ∎ Energy production from natural gas expected to increase 13.2% by 2022 ∎ 96% of the gas pipeline capacity into Florida is subscribed ∎ Impact of EPA regulations:  RICE 1/ rule projected to negatively impact Commercial/Industrial Demand Response projections  Prospective 2015 retirements at Crystal River due to MATS 2/ would have transmission impacts  Mitigation plans are being developed 5 5 1/ RICE: Reciprocating Internal Combustion Engine 2/ MATS: Mercury and Air Toxics Standard

FRCC Load & Resource Plan 6 6

Load Forecast Factors  Florida unemployment (actual) continues to decrease  Population continues to pick up momentum  Florida’s Gross State Product (GSP) levels lower than expected in 2011-12; new projections show slightly slower recovery  Forecasted energy sales and peak demands are lower in 2013 TYSP compared to 2012 TYSP 7 7

Comparison of 2012 vs. 2013 FRCC Firm Peak Demand Forecast (Summer) 52,000 50,000 Firm Peak Demand (MW ) 48,273 47,581 48,000 46,803 47,538 46,152 45,802 46,808 46,000 45,242 46,125 44,459 45,457 43,618 44,907 44,000 44,355 43,041 43,812 43,142 2012 2013 42,000 42,532 40,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Projected Year 8

Comparison of 2012 vs. 2013 FRCC Firm Peak Demand Forecast (Winter) 52,000 Firm Peak Demand (MW ) 50,000 48,169 47,509 48,000 46,910 47,870 46,305 47,259 45,752 46,000 46,675 45,297 46,105 44,790 45,543 44,228 44,015 45,074 44,000 44,596 44,060 43,384 2012 2013 42,000 40,000 1 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 Projected Year 9

Comparison of 2012 vs. 2013 FRCC Net Energy for Load Forecast 270,000 259,024 Net Energy for Load (GWh) 260,000 254,024 249,324 250,000 242,626 245,696 249,183 251,942 239,191 245,932 240,000 235,490 237,569 240,276 243,012 230,481 227,095 233,937 230,000 229,771 225,384 220,000 2012 2013 210,000 200,000 1 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Projected Year 10

FRCC Region Compound Average Annual Growth Rate 1/ for Load (MW) 4.0% Summer Growth Rate (%) 3.5% Winter Growth Rate (%) 3.0% CAAGR (%) 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Year 11 1/ Projected growth rate from prior forecasts

FRCC Summer Peak Demands Actual and Forecasted 55,000 50,000 Demand (MW) 45,000 40,000 35,000 Actual Peak Demand Forecasted Peak Demand 30,000 Linear Trend (Actual Peak Demand) 25,000 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 Year 12

Load & Resource Plan Total Available Capacity (Summer) 60,000 58,000 56,000 54,000 Capacity (MW) 52,000 50,000 48,000 46,000 Utility-Owned Capacity (Inside Region) 1/ 1/ Utility-Owned Capacity (Outside Region) 44,000 Net Changes to Utility-Owned Capacity Firm Non-Utility Purchases 42,000 Imports (Purchased Power) 40,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Year 13 1/ Existing generation as of December 31, 2012

Load & Resource Plan FRCC Planned Reserve Margin 50 PSC Stipulation (IOUs) 45 FRCC Criteria 40 Reserve Margin (%) 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 Summer Winter 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Year 14

Load & Resource Plan FRCC Planned Reserve Margin (excluding projected DR) 50 PSC Stipulation (IOUs) 45 FRCC Criteria 40 Reserve Margin (%) 35 30 25 20 15 10 Summer Winter 5 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Year 15

FRCC Demand Forecast (Summer) 55,000 53,450 52,472 51,580 52,000 50,716 51,968 49,844 51,110 Demand (MW) 49,098 50,336 49,000 48,309 49,603 47,558 48,881 48,359 48,285 46,683 47,650 47,538 45,853 47,053 46,808 46,000 46,338 46,125 45,668 45,457 44,907 44,355 43,812 43,000 1/ 2/ 2013 (Firm Load with DR & EE/EC Excluded) 43,142 1/ 2013 (Firm Load with DR Excluded) 42,532 2013 (Firm Load) 40,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Year 16 1/ DR: Demand Response 2/ Utility sponsored Energy Efficiency/Energy Conservation (EE/EC) programs only

Load & Resource Plan Generation-Only Reserve Margin 1/ 25 FRCC Criteria 20 Reserve Margin (%) 15 10 5 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Year 17 1/ Excludes projected cumulative DR and incremental utility EE/EC programs

Load & Resource Plan Demand Response as a Percentage of Peak Demand Summer 2013 8.4% 6.9% 6.8% 3.9% 3.8% 2.8% 2.6% 2.5% MISO FRCC PJM NPCC SERC WECC SPP ERCOT 18 Source: NERC’s 2013 Summer Reliability Assessment ( http://www.nerc.com/pa/RAPA/ra/Reliability%20Assessments%20DL/2013SRA_Final.pdf )

FRCC Reliability Assessment Reserve Margin Review  Planned Reserve Margins expected to be greater than 20% (but are projected to be increasingly dependent upon all types of DSM)  FRCC has second highest amount of Demand Response as a percentage of a region’s peak load 19 19

Fuel Mix (Energy) Net Energy for Load (GWh) Renewables Renewables NUG NUG ~ 1% ~ 1% ~ 1% < 1% Other Other 6% Nuclear 7% Nuclear 13% 13% Coal Coal 20% 19% Oil Oil < 1% < 1% Gas 59% Gas 13.2% increase 59% from Gas (16,302 GWh) 2013 2022 225,384 GWh 255,242 GWh 20

Fuel Mix (Capacity) Summer Capacity 1/ (MW) Nuclear Nuclear Hydro Hydro 7% 8% < 0.1% < 0.1% Renewables Renewables 2% 1% Coal Coal 14% 17% Oil Oil 14% 14% Gas Gas 61% 62% 2013 2022 53,535 MW 59,792 MW 21 1/ Only accounts for firm capacity

2013 Existing Renewable Resource Capacity Summer Capacity 1/ (MW) Municipal Solid Waste Biomass 33% 28% Heat Recovery Solar 21% 13% Hydro 4% 1,380 MW 22 1/ Contains non-TYSP data that includes both Firm and Non-Firm Capacity

Renewables Forecast Existing Renewables Capacity 1/ 1,380 MW Planned Additions (through 2022) 1/ Biomass 481 MW Municipal Solid Waste 125 MW Solar PV 2/ 333 MW Solar Projects (other) 31 MW TOTAL ~ 970 MW 23 1/ Contains non-TYSP data that includes both Firm and Non-Firm Capacity 2/ DEF: 310 MW; GRU: 21 MW; TAL: 2 MW

Nuclear Outlook Existing 1/ Nuclear Capacity (Summer) St. Lucie 1 981 MW St. Lucie 2 989 MW Turkey Point 3 808 MW Turkey Point 4 693 MW Total 3,471 MW Planned Turkey Point 4 2/ (uprate) 120 MW (3/2013) Turkey Point 6 (new) 1,100 MW (6/2022) 1,220 MW Total 1/ Existing capacity as of December 31, 2012 24 2/ Approximate MWs

FRCC Load & Resource Assessment Conclusion  The FRCC Region has adequate total planned generation resources over the ten year period  Greater dependence upon DSM resources and additional analyses will be performed 25

FRCC Fuel Reliability 26 26

2013 FRCC Fuel Reliability  Fuel Reliability Working Group (FRWG)  Reviews existing interdependencies of fuel availability and electric reliability  Coordinate regional responses to fuel issues and emergencies 27 27

Energy Production from Natural Gas 1/ 180,000 160,000 Net Energy for Load (GWh) 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 ACTUAL 2013 Load & Resource Plan 20,000 2012 Load & Resource Plan 0 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 Year 28 1/ Extended nuclear outages for uprate work resulted in higher gas usage in 2012