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Finance at the End of Old Norms Prof. Constantin Gurdgiev | Trinity - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Oct 02, 2022 •276 likes •419 views

Finance at the End of Old Norms Prof. Constantin Gurdgiev | Trinity College Dublin 1 2 3 Tech & Institutional Demand Complexity Migration 1 Demand: Its Behavioral Short-term Challenges: 2016-2017 The Luckiest Generation will

  1. Finance at the End of Old Norms Prof. Constantin Gurdgiev | Trinity College Dublin

  2. 1 2 3 Tech & Institutional Demand Complexity Migration

  3. 1 Demand: It’s Behavioral

  4. Short-term Challenges: 2016-2017 … The Luckiest Generation will be around for a long while yet, strumming their guitars and enjoying their concessionary fares, ensuring young people keep Nature of Demand working to pay their pensions, outraged at demands • Precautionary savings they cash in their property wealth to fund their future • Sticky global demand in care homes. • Low sectorial trust • Changing liquidity • Returns compression Nature of Response: Behavioral Nudging

  5. … hedging for 2018 & beyond Product Flexibility • Risks from the ‘Gig’ Economy • Life-cycle wealth • Trust capital Behavioral Activation Threat Awareness • Low Margins • Digitally ‘wired’, financially weak • Deleveraging will continue - globally

  6. Gen-‘Jinx’ Millennials 2000 1980 2010 1940 2020 1960 2050 Decennials High returns, low margins & volatile Low returns & simplified Higher volatility, speed & markets products complexity

  7. 2 Tech & Complexity

  8. Disruptive Platforms … Autonomous Analytics Advice automation Micro-data Wearables Software-designed security Nano Big Data design Cryptos enabling Congestion charging E-Payments Behavioral Hybrid & Natural sensing Language Computing 3D printing Bio-Augmentation Gesture control Virtual Reality Cryptos exchanges Atomized services Augmented Reality Advice ‘scalping’ Behavioral software Data arbitrage

  9. … The ‘Deep Blue’ of Change Increasing Speed Big Data Design Congestion Charging E-Payments Increasing Complexity

  10. Tech & Complexity: Asset Classes Disruption Asset classes Performance Allocations Data flows imply more Breakdown in historical complex portfolio properties Margins compression + metrics + Liquidity squeeze = Demand for Smart α à à Hybrid Return Higher risk & leverage instrumentation up Speed à à indeterminacy Information flows & models exhaustion # Buffett’s Alpha outpace analytics Synthetics out

  11. 3 Institutional Migration Counters Tech Momentum

  12. Old Players are coming back … 2018 on … 2016 - 2017 Learning Models Weak & fragmented demand remains New structures formulation à Liquidity premium & margins Zero bound liquidity pressure exhaustion à Space for new Traditional v Fintech consolidations … competition

  13. … Eating Traditional Institutionals’ Lunch … and beyond to 2020 … ‘Buffett’s Alpha’ Data Naturals mainstreaming 250 nanoseconds à 80 Differentiation between Funding costs, access to 35-sigma 10^116 margin Cost delta -360 bps on providers/investors is now leverage & risk on Gaussian pre-GFC average a multi-faceted game of management will drive Higher moments instability Duration: 181 months speed, data & strategy … returns … Fractal instability / switching

  14. 1 2 3 Tech & Institutional Demand Complexity Migration Thank you!

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