F utur e of Wor k: Skills and Migr ation in the Middle E ast I nte r-Re g io na l E xpe rts F o rum o n Skills a nd Mig ra tio n in the So uth Asia -Middle E a st Co rrido r F ro ila n T . Ma lit, Jr. (Co rne ll Unive rsity ) Ge o rg e Na ufa l (T e xa s A &M Unive rsity)
“Skills transfo rm live s and drive e c o no mie s.” - OE CD 2015
GCC Population Stoc ks 2015 and 2030
F or e igne r s in the GCC Countr ie s, 2013- 2014
F or e igne r s in the GCC Countr ie s, 2013- 2014
GCC Countr ie s’ L abor F or c e , 2012- 2013
E c o no mic Visio n
Cor e Polic y Que stions Wha t a re the de mo g ra phic , e c o no mic , a nd po litic a l c ha lle ng e s tha t impa c t g o ve rnme nts de c isio ns in re g ula ting skills a nd mig ra tio n b o th in the sho rt (c urre nt) a nd lo ng -te rm (b y 2030) in the Middle E a st re g io n? Wha t a re the re g io na l skill fo re c a sting insig hts in the fie lds o f c o nstruc tio n, c a re , ho spita lity b o th in the sho rt a nd lo ng te rm in the Middle E a st re g io n? Ho w c a n the GCC a nd o the r Middle E a st g o ve rnme nts ma na g e lo ng -te rm mig ra nt de pe nde nc y a nd c re a te e mplo yme nt fo r na tio na ls a c ro ss skill le ve ls, while simulta ne o usly c o ntro lling la b o r mig ra tio n a c ro ss se c to rs (i.e . c a re , c o nstruc tio n)? Wha t a re so me re c o mme nda tio ns tha t will e na b le g o ve rnme nts to re g ula te skills a nd mig ra tio n ?
De finitions Sho rt-run (c urre nt) L o ng -run (b y 2030) Ca re wo rke rs: do me stic wo rke rs, c a re g ive rs a nd o the r type o f he a lth-re la te d o c c upa tio ns Orig in c o untrie s: la b o r se nding c o untrie s to the GCC
Pr e se ntation Outline I . De mo g ra phic T ra nsitio n in the Middle E a st I I . Re g io na l Skills F o re c a sting I I I . L a b o r Ma rke t a nd Mig ra tio n Go ve rna nc e Syste ms in the Middle E a st I V. So me Re c o mme nda tio ns
De mogr aphic T r ansition in the Middle E ast Re gion (1) De mogr aphic Wo rld’ s yo ung po pula tio n: me dia n a g e o f 26 (2015) & ra ng e b e twe e n 19 a nd 33 ye a rs o ld Hig h yo uth a nd o ve ra ll une mplo yme nt ra te s (pa rtic ula rly a mo ng unive rsity g ra dua te s) L o we st fe ma le pa rtic ipa tio n ra te s g lo b a lly L a rg e st inc re a se in e duc a tio n a t the re g io na l le ve l ye t e c o no mic pe rfo rma nc e sig nific a ntly de c line d
De mogr aphic T r ansition in the Middle E ast Re gion (2) E c onomic L o we r o il pric e s => re duc tio n in g o ve rnme nt re ve nue s a nd b udg e t fo r pub lic a nd priva te se c to r initia tive s Diffe re ntia l la b o r ma rke t c o nditio ns b o th in the pub lic a nd priva te se c to rs
Re gional F or e c asting (1) I MF (2016) re po rte d 0.9% re a l GDP g ro wth fo r GCC c o untrie s, do wn fro m 2% in 2015 “T he o utlo o k is impro ving b ut also the risks are g ro wing . We are no t unde re stimating the le ve l o f risk fo r the ME NA o il e xpo rte rs and that is why we b e lie ve the y ne e d to ke e p re duc ing the ir b udg e t de fic its, e xpanding re ve nue so urc e s and also pursuing the struc tural re po rts that will allo w the m to dive rsify o utside the o il se c to r .” - I MF Re g io na l Dire c to r fo r Middle E a st & Pa kista n
e c asting (2 ) Re gional F or Ag g re ssive me g a -inve stme nt infra struc ture pro je c ts a s dive rsific a tio n stra te g ie s UAE E xpo 2020 & Dub a i’ s Blue Wa te r I sla nd; Qa ta r’ s Wo rld Cup 2022 & L usa il; Sa udi Ara b ia ’ s K ing do m T o we r & Riya dh Me tro ; Ba hra in’ s T he Ave nue s; K uwa it Olympic Villa g e ; Oma n’ s Ra s Al K ha r E c o -Re so rt Sur
Constr uc tion Se c tor L a b o r de ma nd fo r mig ra nt wo rke rs will re ma in hig h in the GCC c o untrie s, pa rtic ula rly in the c o nstruc tio n industry. Re a so ns Ag e nts supply ze ro re c ruitme nt c o sts fo r GCC-b a se d e mplo ye rs E mplo ye rs pa y lo we r b e ne fits fo r lo w-skille d mig ra nt wo rke rs, the re fo re disinc e ntivizing the m to inve st in ne w te c hno lo g y E mplo ye rs pre fe r mig ra nt wo rke rs tha n lo c a ls due to the pe rc e ive d wo rk e thic ; lo c a ls hig hly pre fe r to wo rk in pub lic se c to r due to wa g e s a nd b e ne fits.
Se r vic e Se c tor : Hospitality & Re tail Me g a -inve stme nt infra struc ture de ve lo pme nts in the GCC c o untrie s Re q uire mo re se rvic e a nd ho spita lity wo rke rs to fill in the la b o r sho rta g e E xpe c t to c re a te 300,000 jo b s, fo r e xa mple , fo r the upc o ming UAE E xpo 2020 Mo re pre fe re nc e s fo r F ilipino a nd I ndia n se rvic e wo rke rs (mo stly wo me n) a nd o the r Ara b wo rke rs, pa rtic ula rly in ma na g e ria l po sitio ns a c ro ss re ta il/ se rvic e wo rke rs. A g ro wing numb e r o f Afric a n wo rke rs ha ve a lso inc re a sing ly mo ve d to the GCC a nd o the r ME NA c o untrie s.
Car e Se c tor L a b o r de ma nd fo r c a re wo rke rs will ine vita b ly re ma in hig h b o th in the sho rt a nd lo ng -run F a c to rs Pub lic e xpe nditure c o ntra c tio n in the c a re se c to r E mplo ye rs’ pre fe re nc e fo r c a re wo rke rs (i.e . hig h de pe nde nc y, c ulture , sta tus symb o l) Struc tura l sho rta g e o f c a re wo rke rs, c o mb ine d with diplo ma tic b a ns impo se d b y se nding c o untrie s, ha s trig g e re d I rre g ula r mig ra tio n, tra ffic king , a nd so ft immig ra tio n po lic ie s a t de stina tio n c o untrie s
Me dic al Se c tor & Re se ar c h Industr y Hig h sho rta g e in me dic a l a nd nursing sta ffing in va rio us ho spita ls a c ro ss the GCC c o untrie s L o w ra tio o f nurse / do c to r to pa tie nt po pula tio ns E xpa nsio n o f he a lth c a re fa c ilitie s in the GCC, pa rtic ula rly in the UAE a nd Sa udi Ara b ia Inc re a sing me dic a l to urist hub in the GCC, pa rtic ula rly in the UAE Pro file o f T a rg e te d Ca re Wo rke rs Ma na g e ria l po sitio ns: We ste rn b a c kg ro unds F ro ntline nurse s: F ilipino nurse s with a t le a st b a c he lo r’ s de g re e in nursing , a t le a st 3 ye a rs o f e xpe rie nc e , a nd a va lid lic e nse o f c e rtific a tio n/ lic e nse He a lthc a re wo rke rs: F ilipino s, India ns
L abor Mar ke t and Migr ation Gove r nanc e Syste ms: Skill Re quir e me nts and Pr ospe c ts I mpo sitio n o f hig h-skill re q uire me nts fo r future mig ra nt wo rke rs prio r to the ir a rriva l in the GCC c o untrie s E ffe c ts o n c o nstruc tio n, c a re , a nd se rvic e se c to rs Shifting Mig ra tio n Go ve rna nc e Appro a c h De stina tio n c o untrie s’ shift fro m de c e ntra lize d la b o r ma rke t po lic y to a mo re ‘ re stric tive ’ mig ra tio n po lic ie s a nd skille d/ c e rtifie d re q uire me nts in the lo ng run. Mo re inte nse la b o r ma rke t c o mpe titio n b e twe e n a nd a mo ng la b o r-se nding c o untrie s
L abor Mar ke t Challe nge s in the Middle E ast Ab usive a nd fra udule nt re c ruitme nt pra c tic e s in the Asia -GCC mig ra tio n c o rrido r L imite d o r we a k inc e ntive s a nd ma nda te s to e nfo rc e de stina tio n c o untry e mplo ye rs to pa y re c ruitme nt c o st We a k mo nito ring me c ha nisms a nd imple me nta tio n o f b o th o rig in a nd de stina tio n c o untrie s’ re c ruitme nt re g ula tio ns/ la ws Co rruptio ns a nd a b use s b o th in o rig in a nd de stina tio n c o untrie s Ma ssive sub c o ntra c tua liza tio n in lo w-skille d la b o r se c to rs (i.e . c o nstruc tio n) a nd c o rruptio ns within priva te se c to r HR c o mpa nie s F e w ra tific a tio ns o f re le va nt inte rna tio na l la b o r c o nve ntio ns b y de stina tio n c o untrie s a nd limite d e nfo rc e me nt o f na tio na l la ws F a ir a nd e thic a l re c ruitme nt c o mpa nie s L imite d mo b ility rig hts unde r the K a fa la Spo nso rship Pro g ra ms (i.e . pa sspo rt c o nfisc a tio n issue s) Ca se study: T he po te ntia l b e ne fits a nd implic a tio ns o f “o ne -sto p sho p” o n mig ra nt wo rke rs in the o rig in c o untry
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