The future of restoration: Gulf of Mexico case study Extramural Gulf Restoration Research (an exceptional time and place) The Science of Ocean, Coastal, and Great Lakes Restoration Consortium for Ocean Leadership 7 March 2012 R. Eugene Turner Dept. Oceanography and Coastal Studies Louisiana State University (euturne@lsu.edu)
107 x 10 6 km 2 inhabitable land on Earth = 1.5 ha (3.8 ac) per person
107 x 10 6 km 2 inhabitable land on Earth = 3.76 ac per person
107 x 10 6 km 2 inhabitable land on Earth = 3.8 ac per person GOM = 5.2 acres per person
107 x 10 6 km 2 inhabitable land on Earth = 3.8 ac per person GOM = 5.2 acres per person $5 to 20 Billion = $386 per person ($952 in coastal zone)
The usual suspects: Damages before the DWH oil spill and coming soon to a coastal zone near you Pollution Hurricanes Dead Zones Climate change Invasive species Nutrient enrichment Centuries of fishing Flood protection levees Piecemeal development Alteration of river systems Inappropriate development Species losses or endangered Wetland loss (1,835 mi 2 in LA)
Framework for Restoration Research Recognize that ecosystem resilience has been compromised by multiple human interventions predating the spill. Acknowledge that significant future environmental change is inevitable and must be factored into restoration plans and actions for them to endure. Treat the Gulf as a complex and interconnected network of ecosystems from shoreline to deep sea. Recognize that human and ecosystem productivity in the Gulf are codependent and that human needs from, and effects on, the Gulf must be integral to restoration planning.
Framework for Restoration Research Recognize that ecosystem resilience has been compromised by multiple human interventions predating the spill. Acknowledge that significant future environmental change is inevitable and must be factored into restoration plans and actions for them to endure. Treat the Gulf as a complex and interconnected network of ecosystems from shoreline to deep sea. Recognize that human and ecosystem productivity in the Gulf are codependent and that human needs from, and effects on, the Gulf must be integral to restoration planning.
Framework for Restoration Research Recognize that ecosystem resilience has been compromised by multiple human interventions predating the spill. Acknowledge that significant future environmental change is inevitable and must be factored into restoration plans and actions for them to endure. Treat the Gulf as a complex and interconnected network of ecosystems from shoreline to deep sea. Recognize that human and ecosystem productivity in the Gulf are codependent and that human needs from, and effects on, the Gulf must be integral to restoration planning.
Framework for Restoration Research Recognize that ecosystem resilience has been compromised by multiple human interventions predating the spill. Acknowledge that significant future environmental change is inevitable and must be factored into restoration plans and actions for them to endure. Treat the Gulf as a complex and interconnected network of ecosystems from shoreline to deep sea. Recognize that human and ecosystem productivity in the Gulf are codependent and that human needs from, and effects on, the Gulf must be integral to restoration planning.
Options
The soft underbelly of decisions Stove pipe Fragmented Control issues Baseline shifts Wrong end of the list Sometimes contentious Status quo management Educational infrastructure Not just knowledge lapses Disenfranchised participation
The soft underbelly of decisions Stove pipe Fragmented Control issues Baseline shifts a “wicked problem set” Wrong end of the list Sometimes contentious Status quo management Educational infrastructure Not just knowledge lapses Disenfranchised participation
1. Baseline Shifts Trophy fish: Key West charter boats 1957 Early 1980s 2007 McClenachan, L. 2009.
1. Baseline Shifts Trophy fish: Key West charter boats 1957 Early 1980s 2007 McClenachan, L. 2009.
1. Baseline Shifts Trophy fish: Key West charter boats 1957 Early 1980s 2007 McClenachan, L. 2009.
2. GOM Reserves, Laboratories, Parks, etc.
2. GOM Reserves, Laboratories, Parks, etc. 3 4 1 5 3 3 2 5 4 1 1 4 3 5 2 1 4 4 4 5 1 5 5 5 1
3. Watersheds and water quality
3. Watersheds, a wicked problem set Alliance refinery Caernarvon flow path 12 Feb. 2009 50 mi 2 of Wetland loss, not wetland restoration
Farm payments and fertilizer applications Broussard, Turner and Westra, in revision
Some Implications • Addressing these coupled issues requires unprecedented political and social collaboration • 5,000+ km 2 ‘experimental eco-socio-political units* *Jordan et al. 2007. Sustainable development of the agricultural bio-economy. Science 316: 1570-1571.
Some Implications • Addressing these coupled issues requires unprecedented political and social collaboration • 5,000+ km 2 ‘experimental eco-socio-political units* *Jordan et al. 2007. Sustainable development of the agricultural bio-economy. Science 316: 1570-1571.
Thank you C. H. Peterson and 18 co-authors 2011
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