Evaluating government plans and actions to reduce GHG emissions in Canada: The state of play in 2016 Hadrian Mertins-Kirkwood, Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives Bruce Campbell, CCPA & University of Ottawa
1. Context: a snapshot of GHG emissions and energy use in Canada 2. Update on federal and provincial climate policies 3. Update on GHG emission reduction targets 4. Summary
Wast ste e & ot other er, , GHG Emissions 54.1, , 7% 7% in Canada Agricu icultu lture, , Oil l and d Gas, , 72.9 .9, , 10% 192.2 .2, , 26% 26% (total) By source (Mt CO 2 e, 2014) Build ldin ings, , 87.1, , 12% 12% Reference: Environment Canada, National Inventory Report 1990-2014 (2016) Electr ectric icity ity, , 78.2 .2, , 11% EITEI EIs, , 76.3 .3, , 11% Canada’s 732 Mt of GHG emissions account for 2% of the global total Trans anspor ortati tation on, , 171.4 .4, , 23% 23%
GHG Emissions Oil and Gas Electricity Transportation EITEIs Buildings Agriculture Waste & other in Canada Territories (total) British Columbia Alberta By jurisdiction and source (Mt CO 2 e, 2014) Reference: Environment Canada, National Saskatchewan Inventory Report 1990-2014 (2016) Manitoba Ontario GHG emissions are concentrated in Quebec specific sectors in specific regions (the five largest blocks account for Atlantic Provinces 41% of total emissions) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300
GHG Emissions Oil and Gas Electricity Transportation EITEIs Buildings Agriculture Waste & other in Canada Territories (per capita) British Columbia Alberta By jurisdiction and source (tonnes CO 2 e Saskatchewan per person, 2014) Reference: Environment Canada, National Manitoba Inventory Report 1990-2014 (2016) and Ontario Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 051- 0001 Quebec Atlantic Provinces Provincial GHG emissions differences are not primarily determined by Canada population size 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
GHG Emissions Territories Intensity in British Columbia Canada Alberta Saskatchewan By jurisdiction (Mt CO 2 e per $1 billion GDP, 2014) Manitoba Reference: Environment Canada, National Inventory Report 1990-2014 (2016) and Ontario Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 384- Québec 0038 Atlantic Provinces Provincial GHG emissions differences are not primarily determined by Canada overall economic activity 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4
Energy Use in Coal Refined petroleum products Natural gas Liquid natural gas Primary electricity, hydro, nuclear Suppressed data & other sources Canada Territories (total) British Columbia By jurisdiction and source (petajoules, Alberta 2014) Saskatchewan Reference: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 128- 0016 & author’s estimates Manitoba Ontario Quebec Overall consumption of fossil fuels is significantly correlated with total GHG Atlantic Provinces emissions in any given province 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
Energy Use in Coal Refined petroleum products Natural gas Liquid natural gas Primary electricity, hydro, nuclear Suppressed data & other sources Canada Territories (per capita) British Columbia Alberta By jurisdiction and source (megajoules per person, 2014) Saskatchewan Reference: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Manitoba Table 128- 0016 (and author’s estimates) and CANSIM Table 051-0001 Ontario Quebec Average “individual” fossil fuel consumption reflects the Atlantic Provinces energy/economic system, not Canada necessarily household decisions 0 100 200 300 400 500 600
GHG emissions in Canada are closely tied to fossil fuel consumption (and, indirectly, to fossil fuel production) Differences between provinces cannot be explained away by population size or economy activity
Update on • Vancouver Declaration (March) – Commitment to complete pan-Canadian framework by Federal December 2016 and implement in early 2017 • Federal Budget (March) Climate – More than $10 billion in green infrastructure and climate- related spending over five years Policies • “Mid Century Long -Term Low-GHG Development Strategy” (November) – New GHG target of 80% below 2005 levels by 2050 • New policies on the horizon? – National carbon price (announced in September) – Accelerated coal phase-out (announced in November)
• Manitoba Climate Change Plan (December 2015) Update on New GHG emission reduction targets (using 2005 as baseline) – of 33% by 2030, 50% by 2050 and 100% by 2080 Provincial Commitment to adopt cap-and-trade system (now at risk) – Climate • Alberta Climate Leadership Plan (April) New carbon tax of $20/tonne in 2017 ($30/tonne in 2018) – Policies Coal phase-out by 2030 – Oil sands emissions cap of 100 Mt – New methane target (45% reduction by 2025) but no economy- – wide carbon emission reduction targets • Ontario Climate Change Plan (June) Commitment to implement WCI cap-and-trade system (2017) – New electric vehicle infrastructure and consumer incentives – Additional $3 billion to improve energy efficiency in buildings – “Net zero” standard for new buildings by 2030 –
Update on • British Columbia Climate Leadership Plan (August) – “Targeted, sector - specific actions” rather than major cross - Provincial cutting policies – Most reductions come from improved forest sequestration Climate – Ignored principal recommendation of Climate Leadership Team to increase carbon tax Policies • Saskatchewan White Paper (October) – Rejects Canadian climate change mitigation efforts (especially carbon pricing) for failing to significantly reduce global emissions – Promotes "innovation and technological development” as economically productive alternative
Target Forecast cast Difference erence 2020 Targets Newfoundland & Labrador 8.6 9 0.4 vs. Forecasts Prince Edward Island 1.8 2 0.2 Nova Scotia 18.0 15 3.0 New Brunswick 14.8 17 2.2 Quebec 71.3 85 13.7 Target GHG emissions compared to Ontario 154.5 161.2* 6.7 projected GHG emissions (Mt CO 2 e) Manitoba 22** *Adjusted to account for plans announced Saskatchewan 56*** 75 19.0 since September 2015 Alberta 280.3* **Not adjusted for new plan British Columbia 43.1 68.4* 25.3 ***Never formally adopted Canada ada 620 620 738.0* 118 18.0 Reference: Environment Canada, Canada’s Second Biennial Report on Climate Change (2016)
Target Forecast cast Difference erence 2030 Targets Newfoundland & Labrador 5.3 8 2.7 vs. Forecasts Prince Edward Island 1.1 2 0.9 Nova Scotia 13.0 14 1.0 New Brunswick 10.7 16 5.3 Quebec 55.7 90 34.3 Target GHG emissions compared to Ontario 114.5 171.2* 56.7 projected GHG emissions (Mt CO 2 e) Manitoba 13.8 24** 10.2 *Adjusted to account for plans announced Saskatchewan 73 since September 2015 Alberta 270* **Not adjusted for new plan British Columbia 72.3* Reference: Environment Canada, Canada ada 522.9 754.3* 231. 1.4 Canada’s Second Biennial Report on Climate Change (2016)
GHG Emissions Historical emissions Projected emissions (2015) Updated projections (2016) National emissions targets Forecasts vs. 800 National Targets 700 600 Historical and projected GHG emissions 500 compared to emissions targets (Mt CO 2 e) Reference: Environment Canada, National 400 Inventory Report 1990-2014 (2016) and 300 Environment Canada, Canada’s Second Biennial Report on Climate Change (2016) 200 with author’s adjustments 100 0 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038 2041 2044 2047 2050
Summary • Total GHG emissions are principally tied to fossil fuel consumption, not population or economic growth • Important climate policies were announced in 2016 – Pro: new policies target the greatest individual sources of emissions (e.g. Alberta oil and gas, Ontario transportation) – Con: new policies lack the ambition and coordination to drive deep emissions reductions • Total emissions are projected to exceed almost every single federal and provincial/territorial target between now and 2050 • New pan-Canadian climate framework will clearly establish the level of ambition for future federal and provincial policy … for better or for worse
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