How does O.R. help managers make better decisions? By using techniques such as problem structuring methods and mathematical modelling to analyse complex EV EVOL OLVE VE situations, operational research gives those who run organisations the power to make more effective decisions and build more productive systems based on: GRE GREATER TER MA MANC NCHE HESTE STER • More complete data th June, 13 th • Consideration of all available options Frida Friday 13 June, 2014 2014 • Careful predictions of outcomes and estimates of risk • The latest decision tools and techniques For more information Email felicity.mcleister@theorsociety.com What types of problem? How Operational Research can • Decision to be made improve your organisation’s decision • Choices of action making • Significant effect o not worthwhile for trivial decisions Graham Rand • Suitable client Jane Parkin o willing to consider recommendations o able to carry them out Felicity McLeister For more information For more information Email felicity.mcleister@theorsociety.com Email felicity.mcleister@theorsociety.com An obvious question– Strategic "one ‐ off" decisions what is Operational Research? Examples • Warehouse layouts • Sometimes known as Management Science, OR/MS or MS/OR o where should my products go? o aim – minimum work • Called Operations Research in some countries • Relocating offices • "OR is the application of objective methods to o to where should we move? complex problems arising in the direction and o aim ‐ minimum cost, minimum travelling time for management of large systems of people and staff resources faced by industry, the public sector and • Characteristics other organisations." o important to get right! • "The purpose of OR is to enable managers to o costly to reverse make more effective decisions." • Output – recommendations For more information For more information Email felicity.mcleister@theorsociety.com Email felicity.mcleister@theorsociety.com 1
“Tactical" not strategic decisions So what does an OR problem ‐ solving approach consist of? Examples • Inventory management • Problem structuring, formulation o always o what to buy, how often, where to put it, etc. • Data gathering/analysis • Allocating grants o how to design the scorecard o sometimes • Characteristics • Helping managers to understand o this may be all that's required o about processes ‐ not one ‐ off decisions Producing computer systems • Output • o probably recommendations o quite often o possibly also a computer system for future situations • Most OR involves MODELLING o quantitative or qualitative For more information For more information Email felicity.mcleister@theorsociety.com Email felicity.mcleister@theorsociety.com Extremely detailed issues Models: thinking through consequences, "reflection before action" Examples • University timetabling o what is taught when, where, by whom to whom OK to "suck it & see" o aim – high quality of education for simple issues. • Organising appointments o matching providers and clients, at specific times o aims – good match, minimum wasted time • Characteristics Rather disastrous for o best possible solution not vital ‐ good enough will do complex issues and o not clear what "best" means anyway designs • Output – computer systems o for use by technical person – maybe the developer For more information For more information Email felicity.mcleister@theorsociety.com Email felicity.mcleister@theorsociety.com Providing good information Alternatives to modelling Examples • Do nothing • Keeping track of performance • Seat of the pants (intuition) o collecting measurements and using them to • Experiment on the real system highlight changes o Cost • Forecasting market share for a new service provision o Time o maybe after 6, 12, 24 months o Danger • Characteristics o not recommending action but providing a system o an aid to future decisions • Output o a computer system for client's use For more information For more information Email felicity.mcleister@theorsociety.com Email felicity.mcleister@theorsociety.com 2
Hard or Soft OR ? Some comments from clients • Soft OR ‐ qualitative, subjective • “We’ve benefited hugely from your work and support in all areas of the project, and from an organisational perspective o less prescriptive, more descriptive you’ve enabled us to take a highly professional approach to o help stakeholders see the issues more clearly increasing the efficiency of our charity” o facilitation rather than recommendation • ‘The work is already supporting our planning and development o usually the start of any project for next year and allowing us to focus our thoughts and • Hard OR ‐ quantitative, objective decisions on the places of most importance for our organisation’ o measure what you can o may have to ignore what you can't • “Resource planning has been a stumbling block for years. As a new CEO I know how important it is to motivate staff and a o make specific recommendations key part of that was re ‐ thinking how we plan our services.” • Many projects combine the two approaches For more information For more information Email felicity.mcleister@theorsociety.com Email felicity.mcleister@theorsociety.com O.R for the Third Sector Example 1: Crimestoppers Some of the problems third sector organisations are faced with: Help police solve and prevent crime • ‘We have lots of different options for the future but it’s In 2011/12: impossible to decide which to choose in such uncertain • Received 95,276 calls and online forms times.’ o with useful information • ‘We’re under huge pressure to do more with less, and we • Resulted in: don’t know how we’re going to do it.’ o 8,097 criminals arrested and charged • ‘It’s hard to stay objective when we’re faced with such o £22,340,328 worth of illegal drugs seized emotionally charged decisions.’ o £7,723,373 worth of stolen goods recovered • ‘We know we’re doing a good job – but how can we prove Expecting 60% increase in business but no more funds it?’ available for staffing call centre We felt that O.R. could help and set up Pro Bono O.R. For more information For more information Email felicity.mcleister@theorsociety.com Email felicity.mcleister@theorsociety.com Pro Bono O.R. Simulation Model using current shifts Target: 90% of • Set up as a service to third sector organisations by calls to be answered in 20 The OR Society seconds o ‘provides some of the head to your organisation’s heart’ • Some organisations we have helped: For more information For more information Email felicity.mcleister@theorsociety.com Email felicity.mcleister@theorsociety.com 3
The Solution Modelling alternative shift patterns Results for an average week • Identified short term efficiency improvements Alternatives modelled • Recommended additional value 1 adding activities CS initial proposal ‐ longer shifts • Identified ways of measuring impact 2 • Recommended a roadmap for as 1 with some part time weekend shifts moving to a new service delivery model added 3 The benefits as 2 with amendments to weekend shifts • A new perspective on processes, helping develop, challenge and validate 4 internal thinking as 3 but extending one shift • Skilled staff freed up to deliver more 5 value as 4 but changing start times for early • Reach services better targeted and marketed, shifts through improved impact measurement For more information For more information Email felicity.mcleister@theorsociety.com Email felicity.mcleister@theorsociety.com Implementation What happens next? New shift patterns introduced Jan 2013 • Expression of interest. January performance compared to 2012 average • Service levels increased • Registration form. o From 90% to 94% • Speak with O.R. specialist to discuss if there is a • Abandoned calls decreased potential project. o From 12% to 6% • Average time to answer call decreased • Project scope sent to volunteers. o From 28 secs to 13 secs • Organisation selects volunteer. “We are grinning like Cheshire cats and I wanted to • Project proposal drawn up. share the good feeling with you both. Thank you for all your efforts – I feel now it really was worth it.” • Project commences. (Performance Manager) • Feedback sought. For more information For more information Email felicity.mcleister@theorsociety.com Email felicity.mcleister@theorsociety.com Example 2: Reach For more information The client: Reach: an organisation matching skilled volunteers to charities that need Webpage: them www.theorsociety.com/Pages/Probono/Probono.aspx The problem: to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of matching processes, free up resource, develop more value adding activities The approach: we Blog: http://probonoOR.blogspot.co.uk/ • interviewed staff • facilitated focus groups of matching staff and IT support @FMcLeister • work shadowed a ‘matcher’ and the Foundation Services Co ‐ ordinator • discussed potential measures of impact with Research and Business Felicity McLeister Analysis Manager • examined available documentation, collated and distilled the information I look forward to hearing from you. • discussed issues identified with a process improvement expert For more information For more information Email felicity.mcleister@theorsociety.com Email felicity.mcleister@theorsociety.com 4
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