ESV: Why the Controversy? Everglades Case Studies ACES 2012 Workshop John Marshall, Angelique Giraud, James O’Connell, Dr. Laila Recevskis, Dr. Leslie Richardson, et al;
Workshop Agenda • “ Acronums ” List • Synthesis = summing over details? • Purpose: Paradigm Shift to save the Planet • Controversy Q&A: Audience Participation • Controversy Q&A in the Literature/observations • Two Everglades Case Studies by Summer Interns • Assessment of ESV for the Central Everglades • Conclusions • References • Panel Discussion Q&A
“ACRYNUM$” • ACES = A Conference on Ecosystem Services • ESV = Ecosystem Services Valuation • CERP = Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan • CEPP = Central Everglades Planning Project – Geographic Misnomer – AKA Northern Everglades • TSP = Tentatively Selected Plan for CEPP • NRC = National Research Council • CISRERP = NRC CERP/CEPP Peer Review Panel • ROI = Return on Investment<=>Benefit:Cost; • The Bottom Line is $B:$C
Numbers Challenge? ? Reduce Environmental Decision-Support to a one number synthesis ? • B:C = ROI ?
This ACES Workshop Purpose • Shift from ESV = Zero (0) to an ESV Paradigm • Use CERP/CEPP as case study to follow • Overcome the absurdity of controversy that leaves ecosystems services to be valued at zero by a market that is unsustainable • ESV Education to Restore and Protect planetary well-being in a sustainable manner
Audience Participation • Ecosystem Services Valuation Q&A: – Audience Fills in the blanks • Controversy? _____________________________________ • Results/Solution _____________________________________
Major Controversy • Hard for economists to put a value on goods that are not valued by “the Market” • Result: Tragedy of the Commons • Solution: Cap & Trade example – Ozone Fix! – Carbon Fix?
Major Controversy, Continued • Economist K. Smith on Costanza Synthesis … …Should not be used in any form… as measures of natural resources to human welfare…or yardsticks…or roadmap for future research (no, and hell no) • Alternative: None visible! • Kuhn: Structure for a Scientific Resolution : To reject one paradigm without simultaneously substituting another is to reject science itself.
Positions impeding progress? • NRC Peer Review in 2012 Biennial Report: – It is also notable that the Ecosystem Services summary paints a more optimistic picture of the usefulness of this (ESV) tool than does the NRC 2010 Biennial report . – In summary, there is no established formula for the most effective approach to developing ESV synthesis documents . • Where is help in getting to the magic formula?
NRC Dichotomy? • NRC CERP Peer Review 2012 Biennial Report: We are not optimistic ESV can be done for CERP/CEPP • 2005 NRC ESV Study Major Point: If the Ecosystem is not given a value, the default value is ZERO (0) • More Tragedy of Commons: Agriculture and Development benefits out-compete ESV benefits by treating ESV as zero $$$ value
NRC CISRERP Proclamation • CERP lacks a systematic approach to analyze the costs and benefits across multiple projects… it is not clear how benefits can be optimized. • What is NRC CISRERP Calling for? – A word search for benefit s results in 68 hits – A work search for synthesis results in 53 hits REF: Everglades Restoration Progress; NRC Fourth Biennial Review , 2012 (see page 34)
ESV: Why shift the paradigm? • Planet is in Peril – Top Level Predator is in Danger • ESV needs to render ecosystems competitive V. Development and Agriculture value • White House recommends Feds go in this direction: Sustaining Environmental Capital – Protecting Society & the Economy . • If we Save the Everglades, we get to keep the Planet (Marjory Stoneman Douglas ~ 1981)
Synthesis Simplified • CERP (Marshall Plan): Restore sheet flow to max extent feasible from Kissimmee Basin to FL Bay, i.e., Full Decompartmenalization. • CEPP: Restore sheet flow from Lake O to rest of Everglades and FL Bay via WCA-3, Everglades National Park, concurrent with meeting water quality standards/seepage mgt • SYNTHESIS? What is projected increase of ESV v. costs resulting from these DECOMP actions?
Pre-CERP/CEPP Geography Marshall Plan Flow – 1981 USACE Plan 6 Flow - 1994
Plan 6 provides greatest eco-benefits ; but the benefits were not monitized!
Missing Link River of Grass Workshop ESV of restoring ROG by 2010 Summer Interns
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Central Everglades Planning Project Study Area Storage, Treatment, and Conveyance in the EAA Decompartmentalization St. Lucie and Sheetflow Estuary Enhancement LAKE OKEECHOBEE Seepage Management Atlantic Ocean EAA WCA Operational Changes 1 Caloosahatchee WCA Estuary 2 WCA BIG CYPRESS 3A NATIONAL CERP COMPONENTS PRESERVE Gulf of 3B Mexico UNDER CONSIDERATION Biscayne EVERGLADES Bay NATIONAL CENTRAL EVERGLADES PARK PLANNING PROJECT Florida Bay 18 CENTRAL EVERGLADES RESTORING THE HEART OF THE EVERGLADES
CEPP: Events going on real time • Five Final Alternatives going viral after Extensive Screening based on Modeling and Discussion • USACE Taking the Five Alternatives to Public Meetings beginning Dec 10. • Next (January?): Habitat Unit Assessment (HUA) will be used in downsizing 5 alternatives to Tenatively Selected Plan (TSP) • Next #2, Date TBD: ESV of TSP – For latest info, see: http://www.sfrestore.org/cepp/cepp.html
ALTERNATIVE 1 WCA STORAGE AND TREATMENT 1 A-2 FEB integrated with State Remedies FEB on A-1 DISTRIBUTION/CONVEYANCE S-8 HRF: Spreader canal ~ 3 miles east & west of S-8 WCA Backfill Miami Canal from S-8 to I-75 2 L-28 Triangle – gap levee L-28 DISTRIBUTION/CONVEYANCE I-75 Increase S-333 capacity to 3000 cfs One 750 cfs gated structure in L-67 A L-33 WCA One 6000-ft gaps in L-67C levee 3A Tamiami Trail western 2.6 mile and eastern 1 mile bridge L-29 canal max stage at 9.7 SEEPAGE MANAGEMENT L-30 WCA 3B Increase S-356 to 1000 cfs Two 250 cfs pumps on L-31N to return seepage G-211 flood control operations, if needed Utilize coastal canals to convey seepage FEB Pump Gated Structure Levee Removal Canal Operational Backfill 20 CENTRAL EVERGLADES RESTORING THE HEART OF THE EVERGLADES
Everglades Case Studies • Workshop Introduction (30 minutes) • 2010 ESV of a Restored River of Grass (30) – Angelique Giraud, UCF, 2010 ARM Summer Intern • 2012 ESV of a Restored Everglades (30) – James O’Connell, UF, 2012 ARM Summer Intern • Assessment of ESV for Central Everglades (45) – Dr. Laila Racevskis,UF; Dr. Leslie Richardson, USGS • Brief Q&A After Each Presentation • Panel Discussion/Q&A (45)
A Few Good Conclusions • Costanza Synthesis : sums over details – Is a useable demonstration of a synthesis • Use of the Costanza Synthesis provides quicker, better, cheaper approach to ESV • Can be done better by detailed approach to local ecosystem; forget quicker & cheaper! • In analysis of alternatives, relative ESV of alternatives is better than other approaches.
More Conclusions • Ecosystem services value of the planetary biomes are not zero. • ESV benefits tend to be large, relative to cost of restoring or replacing natural functions. – Think Benefits:Costs >> 6:1 • It is our job to calculate the benefits as well as the costs, to provide ROI for decision support • If we calculate the benefits of CERP/CEPP we may yet get to keep the planet!
PRIMARY REFERENCES • Costanza, et al, Report on value of the planet’s 18 biomes; Google Nature 387 ; see – http://www.uvm.edu/giee/publications/Nature_Paper.pdf • Valuing Ecosystem Services – Towards Better Environmental Decision-making , NRC 2005 ; – See http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=11139 • PCAST Report: Sustaining Environmental Capital, Protecting Society and the Economy; See – http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/pcast_ sustaining_environmental_capital_report.pdf • Progress Toward Restoring the Everglades Fourth Biennial Review, 2012 ; See – https://download.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=13422
More References • The Structure of Scientific Revolutions; T.S. Kuhn; 1970 • Perspectives on Biodiversity – Valuing its Role in an Everchanging World ; NRC 1999 • See Education of Public Example at: http://www.palmbeachpost.com/opinion/letters/return-on-saving- everglades-90-billion-883668.html?cxtype=ynews_rss • For additional info, Contact JAMinfo@AOL.com
QUESTIONS?
ARM SIP 2013 ADVERTISEMENT • Arthur R. Marshall Summer Intern Program: Looking for a few hot-shot college students majoring in the environmental sciences , engineering or law to take up ESV approach. • REQUIREMENTS: Juniors/Seniors/Grad Students – GPA >> 3.0; visible verbal and written comm skills – Multiple courses in earth sciences, math, physics. – Career vision is in eco-sciences and related fields • DETAILS: www.ArtMarshall.org; JAMinfo@aol.com
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