The he 15t 15th h AIM AIM Int Inter erna nationa nal W Worksho hop Estimation of Global Cement Demand Reina Kawase Kyoto University 20-22, February 2010 At Ohyama Memorial Hall National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan 1
Introduction of Research Material Stock and Flow Model (MSFM) Material : energy intensity material (Steel and Cement ) Focus on • Material demand with considering goods demand • Goods demand based on goods stock in the society Macro Economic Model Basic econometric model To estimate the input variables for MSFM • Each country(35 regions): GDP, Investment • World: Balance of Import and Export (Goods and Money) 2
Contents 1. 1. Fr Framework k of M Materia ial l Stock a k and d Flo Flow M Mode del/ l/CEM EM Mode del D l Desc script iptio ion Mo Model Str Structu ture Current ve t version ; ; MSF MSFM/ M/CEM M 2. 2. Res Resul ults of M f MSFM/C /CEM 3
Description of MSFM/CEM 1 Final demands goods Buildings Dwelling, Commercial Dwelling Type : Detached house, Apartment Construction material: Wood Wood Steel Reinforced Concrete Masonry or cement Concrete Block Traditional materials & Other Traditional Materials &Other Civil engineering structures Road, Railway, Dam, Airport, Harbor, 1 category Water supply and sewerage, Other 4
Description of MSFM/CEM 2 County classification:35 regions Cod ode Name Cod ode Name Cod ode Name JPN PN ： Jap apan an XEA EA ： Other her E East A Asia ZAF AF ： Sout uth A h Afri rica ca CHN ： Chi hina na XCS ： Cent entral A Asia XAF AF ： Other her A Africa ca IND ： In India XME ME ： Middl ddle E East RUS ： Russi ssia ID IDN ： Ind ndones nesia XLM LM ： Other her L Latin A n Ameri erica ca ME MEX ： Mex exico co KOR KO ： Korea rea CAN AN ： Can anad ada ARG AR ： Argent entine ne THA ： Tha hailand nd USA ： USA BRA ： Brazil MYS MYS ： Mal alays aysia XE1 E15 ： EU-15 -15 AUS ： Aus ustra ralia VNM ： Viet N Nam XE1 E10 ： EU-10 -10 NZL ： New ew Z Zea ealand nd TWN TWN ： Tai aiwan an XE2 E2 ： EU-2 XOC ： Other her o ocea ceani nia SGP GP ： Sing ngapore re TUR ： Turk urkey ey PHL ： Philip ilippin ines XENI ： Other her E Euro urope XSE ： Other her S Sout uth-ea h-east A Asia XEWI WI ： Other her W Wes ester ern E n Euro urope i e in A n Annex nnex I I XSA ： Other her S Sout uth A h Asia XEEI EEI ： Other her E Eastern E ern Euro urope i e in A n Annex nnex I I Current progress: 21 regions--finished. 14 regions--under construction Time periods: 1900 – 2050 (1960-2030) 5
Material Stock and Flow Model Population, Household Model Transport Model Macro Economic Model Stock o k of final d dema mand go goods Dema mand of f final dema mand go goods Goods demand module Mater erial d dens ensity material weight Mat aterial al deman ands included in goods Material production Material cycle module Material Stock and Flow Model 6
Goods Demand Module: Building Value added of Labor of Dwelling ratio Household IND&SER IND&SER Sector Dwelling stock Household size = Dwelling ratio*Household GDP ／ HOU Dwelling price Value added / Labor of IND&SER index Urban Dwelling share stock Type share Commercial floor Area / labor Commercial Floor area / Dwelling FA stock FA stock Dwelling Construction Demand of material Depletion rate Exog ogenous enous commercial FA share End ndog ogenous enous Demand of dwelling FA Construction FA: A: floor area material share Demand of commercial FA Demand of dwelling FA （ construction material ） （ construction material ） 7 Building demand
Goods Demand Module: Building Value added of Labor of Dwelling ratio Household IND&SER IND&SER Sector Dwelling ratio X 3 X 1 Household size = f (X 1 , X 2 , X 3 , X 4 ) GDP ／ HOU Value added / Dwelling price X 4 Labor of IND&SER index Urban Dwelling share stock X 2 X 5 Type share Commercial floor Floor area / dwelling Area / labor = f (X 1 , X 2 , X 5 ) Commercial Floor area / Dwelling FA stock FA stock Dwelling Construction Demand of material Depletion rate Exog ogenous enous commercial FA share End ndog ogenous enous Demand of dwelling FA Construction material share FA: A: floor area Demand of commercial FA Demand of dwelling FA （ construction material ） （ construction material ） 8 Building demand
Goods Demand Module: Civil Eng.1 Road length / Land Area Road rate Railway rate Dam Airport Harbor Traffic Traffic Traffic Traffic Land volume volume volume volume area (Car) (Train) (Plane) (Ship) Road Length Railway Length Exog ogenous enous Depletion rate End ndog ogenous enous Road cons. Paved rate Paved Road Railway Dam Airport Harbor Construction Cons. cons. cons. cons. Production of Civil engineering structure 9
Goods Demand Module: Civil Eng.2 POP GDP/ POP Access rate Access rate to sanitary facility to safe water Urban Access rate share to electricity Population with safe water and sanitation facility Other CVL service Exog ogenous enous Safe water and sanitation facility End ndog ogenous enous Depletion rate Other CVL service Safe water and sanitation construction facility construction Production of Civil engineering structure 10
Material Cycle Module Population, Household Model Transport Model Macro Economic Model Goods demand module Stoc ock of of f final d dema mand g good oods Dema mand of of f final d dema mand g good oods Goods demand module Civil Engineering Building construction Materia ial d l densit ity structures construction material weight Mat aterial al d deman ands included in goods Materi rial p pro roduction on Material cycle module Material Stock and Flow Model Goods material density Exogenous (ton/unit) Endogenous Cement demand [goods] Depletion rate Waste generation （ ton ） rate Production Material stock [ goods] Material production [ goods] material density (ton) (ton) (ton/unit) Material stock Material production (ton) 11 (ton)
Data Var ariab iable les Li Lite teratu ture Aut utho hor/I /Ins nstitut ute GDP/CAP AP GD GDP/HOU OU Value a add World D Dev evel elopment ent I Ind ndica cater er Worl orld B Bank Pop opulation on Urban PO POP s P share Acces ccess t to w water er a and nd s sani nitation Railway L Length World D Dev evel elopment ent I Ind ndica cater er Worl orld B Bank Labor or Yearb rbook ook of of l labou our s r statistics ILO IL Hous useho ehold Hous useho ehold s size GMID ID Eurom romon onitor or Dwel elling ng t type s e sha hare Com ommerc rcial f floor a oor are rea p per L r Labor or YB o of co cons nstruct uction s n statistics cs UN Dwel elling ng f floor a area ea p per er uni unit Book ook of of t the Y Year BRIT ITAN ANNIC ICA Cons nstruct uction s n sha hare Dep eplet etion r n rate Waste m e mana nagem ement ent f fund und r rep eport Daigo. et et a al(2006) 2006) Proc rocess s scap ra rate Dahl hlström(2004) 2004) PSI PS Road l leng ength Worl orld R Roa oad S Statistics IR IRF Air p port-w -with p h paved ed r runw unways Fact B Book ook CIA IA Dam Worl orld R Register of r of D Dams IC ICOLD 12
Data Introduction 180 160 United S States ng (m2) 2) Israel Is United S States 140 Greece eece elling 120 er dwel Sout uth A h Africa ca Tur urkey ey Denm enmark Slo lovenia ia Norwa way ea per 100 Italy It Swit itzerla land Romania Japan e floor area Spa pain Belg lgiu ium It Italy Austria Ger ermany ny Korea,South 80 France nce Portugal Fin inla land Slovakia Croatia Czech R ech Rep epub ublic Slo lovenia ia Bulg lgaria ia 60 Chile ile Ind ndones nesia Lithua huani nia Korea,South Latvia Poland Venez enezuel uela erage Bel elarus us Hung ungary Pe Peru 40 Aver Chi hina na Estonia Es pita(km/cap) p) 50 50 20 45 45 0 40 40 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000 GDP/HO HOU U (US USD) 35 35 per capi * Year is different 30 30 25 25 d length pe depending on countries. 20 20 15 15 10 10 Road 5 0 0 30 30 60 60 90 90 120 20 150 50 13 Popul ulation d dens ensity (ca cap / / km2) 2)
Parameter Adjustment Step Regression analysis by using Japan’s data → estimate the parameters Limited Apply the formulation and parameters Referenc Inconsistency to other countries e Value Adjust parameters or modify the formulation 14
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