Environmental assessment of current and future electricity supply - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Technology Assessment (GaBE) Labororatory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments Environmental assessment of current and future electricity supply technologies for Switzerland Christian Bauer, Roberto Dones, Thomas Heck and Stefan Hirschberg 28.8.2007 LCM 2007 Christian Bauer, 28.8.2007, 1

Technology Assessment (GaBE) Labororatory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments Content • Context & Introduction • Technology overview • Environmental assessment: comparison of technologies based on different aggregation methods - Eco-Indicator 99 - External costs - Environmental area of Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) for sustainability assessment • Conclusions LCM 2007 Christian Bauer, 28.8.2007, 2

Technology Assessment (GaBE) Labororatory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments Context & Overview 1. Choice of 18 current & 18 future (year 2030) power supply technologies → development of LCA inventories (ecoinvent as background database) 2. Use of LCA results to characterize their environmental performance in a „M ulti C riteria D ecision A nalysis model “ → calculation of a „sustainability index“ , based on indicators (environment, social aspects, economy) & individual or group preferences (weighting) Assessment was carried out in collaboration with other scientific institutes and a major Swiss utility LCM 2007 Christian Bauer, 28.8.2007, 3

Technology Assessment (GaBE) Labororatory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments Technologies: Overview Fossil Nuclear Renewables Hard Coal Generation II ** Hydro Generation III (EPR) ** Supercritical Run-of-river IGCC Reservoir Natural Gas Biomass Combined Cycle * Biogas Comb. Heat & Power Synthetic NG (from wood) Wind Fuel Cell (SOFC) onshore, CH & D offshore, DK Photovoltaic mc-Si a-Si * Only results for base-load in Switzerland prensented Geothermal ** Only results for reactors in Switzerland prensented LCM 2007 Christian Bauer, 28.8.2007, 4

Technology Assessment (GaBE) Labororatory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments Results: GHG emissions, year 2000 & 2030 1000 903 900 g (CO 2 -eq.)/kWh year 2000 776 800 year 2030 700 628 600 534 543 500 450 423 386 400 300 200 121 96 75 100 6029 4925 4525 35 1615 1013 10 9 6 5 3 3 4 4 0 r i i l y C P C r r P P H y k S S a a e i n o n r H H H C F C m e v a - - a v a c a l O C C i C m c m r r m r , , m - e e s e , u S f n V , , , r a s r h o r N s s G e e e , o P g e t , - a V a o G s n N G D r h g g P l a e u s a , S o , g o , , G l r n r . l . a i a h u r B h o , l d r o a o s t s u a y r , C r n f t d u d f N H a o o n t y d N a i H , , r W d N d a n n H i i W W LCM 2007 Christian Bauer, 28.8.2007, 5

Technology Assessment (GaBE) Labororatory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments Results: Eco-indicator 99 (H,A), year 2030 4.0E-02 Climate change Resp. inorganics Land use Carcinogens 3.5E-02 Acidification/ Eutrophication Ecotoxicity EI99(H,A) points / kWh (2030) Radiation Resp. organics 3.0E-02 Ozone layer Fossil fuels Minerals 2.5E-02 2.0E-02 1.5E-02 1.0E-02 5.0E-03 0.0E+00 y R D C P C r r P P H k i i l S a e i S n o r H P C F H H C v a m - - , a v C O i c a E C C C m m r r r , , m - e C s e e S , f n , , , , r V a o s r h r s G s G e e o , a g , e P a - V t a s G D o n h e I r N g g a P l e , u s l a , S c l o , , g o a l r n G . . r u a i h h u r o o , B l N r d a o s s C t u a y , f r r n t d f u d N H a o o d n t y N r a i , H , a W d d N H n n i i W W LCM 2007 Christian Bauer, 28.8.2007, 6

Technology Assessment (GaBE) Labororatory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments Results: External costs, year 2030 2.4E-02 SO2, NOx, PM, Heavy metals 2.2E-02 Radioactive Emissions 2.0E-02 NMVOC 1.8E-02 Euro 2000 / kWh 1.6E-02 Greenhouse Gases 1.4E-02 1.2E-02 1.0E-02 8.0E-03 6.0E-03 4.0E-03 2.0E-03 0.0E+00 R D C P C r r P P H y k i i l S a e i S n r o P C H H H F C m v a - - , v a C c a E C O i C C m r r m r , , m s - e e C e , S f n , V , , , r a o s r h r s s G G e e , a o g , e P t a - V a s G D o n N h e I r g g a P l e l , u s a , S c l o g o , , G r n a l . r . u a i h h u r o B o l , N d r o a s s t c u a y , r r n f d t d f N u H d a o o n t y r N a i a H , , W d d N H n n i i W W LCM 2007 Christian Bauer, 28.8.2007, 7

Technology Assessment (GaBE) Labororatory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments Environmental Indicators for MCDA CONSUMPTION of RESOURCES Fossil Primary Energy MJ/kWh Uranium kg/kWh Metals kg (Sb-eq.)/kWh CLIMATE CHANGE Greenhouse Gas Emissions kg (CO 2 -eq.)/kWh EFFECTS on ECOSYSTEMS Land use PDF*m 2 *a/kWh Ecotoxicity PDF*m 2 *a/kWh Acidification & Eutrophication PDF*m 2 *a/kWh Release of Hydrocarbons (severe acidents) t/kWh Land contamination (severe acidents) km 2 /kWh WASTE PDF*m 2 *a/kWh Non radioactive waste m 3 /kWh Radioactive Waste PDF: Potentially Disappeared Fraction (of species) LCM 2007 Christian Bauer, 28.8.2007, 8

Technology Assessment (GaBE) Labororatory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments Results: Environmental part of MCDA, year 2030 Consumption of Resources Climate Change Equal weighting Effects on Ecosystems Waste 100 90 80 Sustainability Index 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Nuclear, EPR Hard Coal, IGCC, D Natural gas, CC Natural gas, CHP Natural gas, SOFC Hydro, run-of-river Hydro, reservoir Biogas, CHP SNG, CHP Wind, onshore, CH Wind, onsh., Germany Wind, offsh., Denmark PV, mc-Si PV, a-Si Geothermal LCM 2007 Christian Bauer, 28.8.2007, 9

Technology Assessment (GaBE) Labororatory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments Comparison of environmental ranking (2030) Best score Worst score High Environmental performance* Medium 10% 80% 10% Low EI'99 (H,A) External Costs MCDA (environment) Hard Coal, IGCC, D Natural gas, SOFC Wind, onshore, CH Hydro, run-of-river Natural gas, CHP Wind, offsh., DK Natural gas, CC Hydro, reservoir Wind, onsh., D Nuclear, EPR Biogas, CHP Geothermal SNG, CHP PV, mc-Si PV, a-Si year 2030 N. Fossil Renewables * Interval in scoring of best and worst technology is divided into 3 classes: High > 90% of max; Med = 10-80%; Low <10% LCM 2007 Christian Bauer, 28.8.2007, 10

Technology Assessment (GaBE) Labororatory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments Conclusions • Environmental technology ranking can be relatively stable for the shown assessment methods and roughly match MCDA ranking: - Swiss hydro power: overall best environmental performance - Most new renewables and nuclear: comparable, good performance ▫ SNG: worse performance than other new renewables - Fossil systems: worst score ▫ Natural gas: superior to coal • Alternative assessment methods or weighting of criteria may change the ranking • Complete sustainability assessment must also include social and economic criteria LCM 2007 Christian Bauer, 28.8.2007, 11