Energy Transition in Germany Energy Transition in Germany The Way - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

www.volker-quaschning.de Energy Transition in Germany – Energy Transition in Germany – The Way to a 100% Renewable Electricity Supply The Way to a 100% Renewable Electricity Supply Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences Worldbank March 13, 2012 Washington DC

Contents HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences Objectives for a Sustainable Energy Supply Energy Transition in Germany The Solar Revolution Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning 2

Objectives for a Sustainable Energy Supply HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning 3

Impact of Climate Change HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences Source: NASA Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning 4

Impact of Climate Change HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences Source: NASA Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning 5

High Risk Areas due to Sea Level Rise HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences Washington DC +7 m Graphic: Norbert Geuder Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning 6

High Risk Areas due to Sea Level Rise HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences Washington DC +70 m Graphic: Norbert Geuder Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning 7

High Risk Areas due to Sea Level Rise HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences +70 m Hamburg Berlin Graphic: Norbert Geuder Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning 8

Global Requirements for Climate Protection HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences 40000 reduction path Mt for the two degree target 35000 CO 2 emissions related to energy 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 former CO 2 emissions 0 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 data: WRI, IEA, PIK-Potsdam Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning 9

Some Nuclear Incidents with Impact on Germany HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences Forsmark near-accident 2006 Chernobyl Asse accident radioactive 1986 storage disaster 2007 Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning 10

Options for CO 2 Reductions HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences nuclear power „CO 2 -free“ fossil power stations energy conservation renewable energies Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning 11

Thesis I HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences For a sustainable energy supply we have to become carbon dioxide free until 2040 . Otherwise we risk to sink our costal cities. In the longer term we risk a sea level rise of up to 70 meters. The current installation rates for renewable power even in Germany are to low for an effective climate protection. Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning 12

Energy Transition in Germany HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences 700 600 TWh Fossile Kraftwerke 500 in Kernenergie Bruttostromverbrauch Import (regenerativ) 400 Photovoltaik Windkraft 300 Geothermie Biomasse 200 Wasserkraft 100 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning 13

Goals for Renewable Electricity of German Parties HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences Federal Government 2010 2020 2030 2050 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% shutdown of nuclear power until 2022 >80% renewables until 2050 Opposition 2010 2020 2030 2050 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 75% renewables until 2030 2010 2020 2030 2050 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 100% renewables until 2030 Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning 14

Installed Renewable Capacity in Germany HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning 15

Renewable Energy Jobs in Germany HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences Data: BMU Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning 16

Centralized Renewable Electricity Supply HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences Continuing supply oligopoly Many new power lines necessary Energy transition not realizable fast enough Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning 17

Decentralized Renewable Electricity Supply HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences more competition and cost effectiveness less new power lines but more decentralized storage are needed energy transition is realizable in any speed we want Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning 18

Gross Electricity Demand in Germany HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences HTW scenario: climate protection and sustainable development 20 % 100 % 700 600 demand in TWh fossil power 500 nuclear power import (renewable) 400 photovoltaic wind power electricity 300 geothermal power biomass 200 hydropower Gross 100 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning 19

Power Generation of a 100 % Renewable Power Supply HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences mean monthly power generation and demand 90 GW 80 70 solar import 60 geothermal 50 hydro power 40 biomass wind power 30 photovoltaics 20 gross demand 10 0 Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning 20

Former Electricity Supply in Germany HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences spring week in 2008 90000 MW 80000 70000 60000 PV 50000 wind power 40000 medium and peak load 30000 PV wind power brown coal (base load) biomass 20000 hydro power medium and peak load 10000 nuclear power (base load) brown coal nuclear power 0 Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning 21

„Dental Chart“ – 70 GW Grid-Connected PV in Germany HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences possible generation during a spring week 2020 90000 PV wind (offshore) MW wind (onshore) geothermal power 80000 biomass hydro power medium and peak load 70000 60000 PV 50000 40000 30000 20000 medium and 10000 peak load 0 Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning 22

Storage Solutions for a Renewable Electricity Supply HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences natural gas power station heat electricity natural gas grid excess electricity decentralized battery storage hydrogen electrolysis water methanization methane carbon dioxide natural gas oxygen storage water Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning 23

Thesis II HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences If we keep the high installation rates for renewable power for the next 10 years we do not need base load power stations anymore . Then, it will be impossible to run nuclear or brown coal power stations economically. This is why the big power companies and some politicians now want to reduce new renewable installations significantly. Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning 24

The Solar Revolution HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning 25

Development of Electricity Prices HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences ct/kWh 120 coal or nuclear power PV Germany, roof 100 PV Germany, open space PV North Africa wind power 80 domestic electricity price 60 grid parity 40 20 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning 26

Current Electricity Price Levels in Germany HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences fossil power station CO 2 - charge 3…8 ct/kWh 6…25 ct/kWh CCS generation level EEG levy consumer level 9…10 ct/kWh 19…26 ct/kWh power customer industry homes and trade Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning 27

Cost Development of Domestic Fuels HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences Assumptions: Boiler efficiency 80%, calorific value of fuel oil 10.5 kWh/l 60 60 60 domestic PV domestic PV domestic PV domestic fuel oil +5% .p.a. 50 50 50 domestic fuel oil domestic fuel oil domestic fuel oil +3% p.a. domestic fuel oil +1% p.a. 40 40 40 oil ct/kWh ct/kWh ct/kWh 30 30 30 parity 20 20 20 10 10 10 0 0 0 2004 2004 2004 2005 2005 2005 2006 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning 28

Expected Share of PV for the Global Electricity Supply HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences Assumptions: 30% market growth per year until 2025, then 550 GW p.a . 0.3 % 50 % 45000 TWh GER: 3.5 % 40000 USA: 0.05 % 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning 29

Thesis III HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences Photovoltaic systems must not compete to utility operated power stations because they can be installed directly at the consumer . The immense price reduction of photovoltaic systems will start a revolution in the energy sector within this decade . PV will be fully competitive very soon and is one major hope for climate protection and global access to electricity. Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning 30

Thank you for your Attention HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences For further reading… www.volker-quaschning.de Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning 31