ENERGY PENETRATION SCENARIO AND RODAMAP STUDY CHINA NATIONAL - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

CHINA 2050 HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION SCENARIO AND RODAMAP STUDY CHINA NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY CENTER ENERGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF NDRC April 20, 2015 国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所 Energy Research Institute National Development and Reform Commission

Partnership Core Working Group: Technical Support:

THE ACHIEVEMENT of “ CHINA 2050 HIGH RE PENETRATION SCENARIO” IS the KEY FACTOR for OUR “BEAUTIFUL CHINA” High Renewable Energy Penetration Scenario Economic Dreams To get rid of fossil fuels is our global development trend. 生态文明是人类文明的重要标志 Ecological civilization is the moral high ground of human development. Ecological Dreams

THE ACHIEVEMENT of “CHINA 2050 HIGH RE PENETRATION SCENARIO” IS VISION AND CONSENSUS OF THE WHOLE SOCIETY Social Economic — Middle Level of Developed Country Energy Strategy — Low Carbon and Green Electricity for Future Ecological Environment — Blue Air and Green Water

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT GDP ： 4b CNY 2010 2013 2020 2030 2050 GDP ： 28.2b CNY ， 7 times the GDP in 2010

ECOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENT The emission trends of various main air pollutants 10k tons 7000 6000 Pollutant Emissions 5000 Below the level of 4000 emissions in 1980 3000 2000 1000 0 CO2 Emissions 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2050 3b tons of annual SO2 NOx smoke and dust CO2 emissions, 2.17 tons of emissions 2500 per capita 2000 4.44t 1500 10k tons 3.99t 1000 500 0 SO2 NOx PM10 PM2.5 Atmo 7.25 6.7 Hg 1990 2010 Power sector emissions China USA EU The level of global 1.4b tons in 2050, average emissions 3.2b tons in 2010 3.02 2010 2011 2050 CO2 Emissions (b tons)

MAIN CALCULATED RESULTS for HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION in 2050 The rate of 3.4billion tce of The proportion of electrification to be primary energy non-fossil energy higher than 60% in supply , and 3.2billion generation to be end-use energy tce of end-use energy higher than 91% consumption consumption 3.4b 16000 Twh 100% 62% 3X 90% 14000 80% 12000 2.7b 70% 10000 60% 8000 50% 22% 40% 6000 30% 4000 20% 2000 10% 0 0% 2010 2050 2400GW of wind capacity , 2010 2050 2600GW of solar power capacity , and 9660TWh of total annual power generation

HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION SCENARIO: PARTHWAY TEN CONLUS LUSIONS IONS OR R TEN THINKS KS ？

BY 2050, RENEWABLE ENERGY COULD MEET MORE THAN 60% OF PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND 2010 2020 2040 2030 2050 5.0 70% Primary Energy Supply(billion tce, thermal equivalent ） 4.5 60% 4.0 50% 3.5 3.0 40% 2.5 30% 2.0 1.5 20% 1.0 10% 0.5 0 0% Oil Nature Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro Wind Biomass Bio fuel Solar Power SWH & Geothermal RE Share

HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION WILL PROMOTE FOSSIL ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND CARBON EMISSIONS TO PEAK BY 2025 12.0 Units : billion tons 10.0 9.2 9.2 8.5 8.2 7.8 8.0 6.5 6.0 5.3 Reference 3000 High penetration 4.1 Units: million tce 4.0 3.0 2500 2.0 2000 1500 0.0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 1000 500 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Metal Electricity Coke Chemical Manufacturing smelting Services Residents Transport Argriculture

RENEWABLE POWER IS THE ESSENTIAL REPLACEMENT FOR FOSSIL ENERY 16000 100% TWh 91% 90% 14000 88% 82% 86% 80% 84% 12000 78% 71% 70% 10000 67% 60% 57% 8000 50% 53% 46% 40% 6000 41% 34% 30% 28% 4000 29% 20% 23% 22% 2000 10% 0 0% 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 COAL NAT_GAS FUELOIL NUCLEAR Hydro WIND SOLAR MUNI_WASTE BIOGAS STRAW WOOD GEOTHERMAL WAVE RE share Non-fossil energy Share

WIND POWER AND SOLAR POWER WILL BECOME IMPORTANT PILLARS OF THE FUTURE POWER SUPPLY 3000000 2040, 2204GW 2500000 2000000 2040, 2056GW 1500000 1000000 2020,307GW 500000 2020,174GW 0 20112013201520172019202120232025202720292031203320352037203920412043204520472049 PV&CSP Wind Development Phase Diagram of Wind and Solar power in High Penetration Scenario

HIGHER ELECTRIFICATION RATE BRING HUMAN SOCIETY INTO MORE HIGHER LEVEL OF CIVILIZATION FORMATION 4.0 70% Units: billion tce 62% 59% 3.5 60% 54% 51% 3.0 47% 50% 41% 2.5 37% 40% 33% 2.0 26% 30% 1.5 20% 1.0 10% 0.5 0 0% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Coal Oil Nature Electricity Bio fuel SWH Electrification share products Gas consumption Geo thermal

TRANSFORM THE ELECTRICITY TRANSMISSION NETWORK TO A PLARTFORM FOR OPTIMIZING RESCOURES ALLOCATION Inter-provincial Transmission Capacity Demand in High Penetration Scenario （ GW ）

TECHNOLOGICAL AND INSTITUTIONAL INNOVATION IS THE FOUNDATION BUILA A HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION POWER SYSTEM Hydro Flexible power RE generation Thermal power Forecast Wind power Integration Operator Power Demand Charging Generation  Bidding at power market Station Response 储能电站 Regulation  Coordinate EVs with smart vehicle network, Power System driverless cars and Driverless Power Market wireless charging EV Flexibility technology  Business model: Output Ancillary charging and discharging services, Regulation Services and shared EV services  Recycle Battery ， Virtual data provide energy storage PV center service to Grid Smart Wireless metering charging Mobile Station Driverless EV EV 国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所 Energy Research Institute National Development and Reform Commission

BUILDING A HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION POWER SYSTEM AT A SMALL OR NON-INCREMENTAL COST Yuan/KWh 0.800 0.746 0.701 0.689 0.700 0.683 0.672 0.678 0.666 0.674 0.685 0.600 0.500 0.400 0.300 0.200 0.100 0.000 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Transmission Cost 0.180 0.182 0.183 0.185 0.190 0.199 0.213 0.230 0.250 Start-up costs 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.005 0.005 0.005 Fuel Cost 0.276 0.259 0.262 0.233 0.186 0.143 0.111 0.094 0.080 Variable O&M 0.022 0.021 0.019 0.016 0.014 0.011 0.010 0.010 0.010 Fixed O&M 0.023 0.028 0.029 0.035 0.040 0.044 0.050 0.053 0.054 Capital Cost 0.244 0.212 0.196 0.212 0.240 0.266 0.285 0.285 0.287 kWh Cost Development Trend in High Penetration Scenario

AS A NEW ECONOMIC GROWTH POINT, RE CAN SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE DEVELOPMENT QUALITY OF OVERALL ECONOMY Energy Sector Employment in 2010 （ unit: 1000 ） 8000 7000 6000 Contribution of RE and 5000 related industries to GDP 4000 3000 2000 1000 7.0% 0 Oil Gas Electricity Nuclear R&D RE 6.2% Coal 6.0% 5.0% 600 Growth of Employment in RE 4.0% and related industries （ unit: 10000 ） 481 500 2.9% 3.0% 2.5% 377 400 2.0% 1.6% 2015 250 300 0.9% 1.0% 2050 200 125 0.0% 81 2010 2020 2030 2050 65 46 100 36 15 13 Wind Solar EV Other RE 0 Solar Wind Hydro Biomass Others

HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION WILL HELP BRING BACK CLEAR WATER AND BLUE SKIES 10.00 35% Units: billion tons 9.00 30% 8.00 25% 7.00 6.00 20% 5.00 15% 4.00 3.00 10% Units: million tons 30.0 2.00 5% 25.0 1.00 0.00 0% 20.0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 15.0 China USA EU China Share of Global 10.0 2050 China's CO 2 Emission in the Global Contrast in High Penetration Scenario 5.0 Note: China's data after 2010 is scenario data And data of other countries is trend prediction 0.0 Data from IEA ETP 2014 1990 2000 2005 2009 2010 2011 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 China SO2 Emission High Penetration Scenario China Nox Emission High Penetration Scenario 2050 China's SO 2 and NO X Emission in High Penetration Scenario

2050 HIGH PENETRATION SCENARIO: PATHWAY Largest Challenge: Variability of Renewables ！

Achieve Higher-level Dynamic Stability Through Changes: Internet + Stability ？ Demand Supply Side Reliability Side Changes ？ Also Intelligence Changes Comm Internet Energy Internet Internet of Things Flexibility

System with High RE Penetration Will Be a Reliable Power System Demand side flexibility Variable generation Variable demand Smart Control and real- time price Flexible generation units

Contribution of EV’s Flexibility to the Power System Vehicle Types and Numbers Charging Mode Operation Features Technology Low Voltage AC Passenger V EV Frequency of Charging DC Miles Bus/Business/Delivery Plug-in Changeable Battery Time Trucks Fuel Battery Wireless Charging EV Charging and Discharging Load Integration Charging control and Daily miles Charging Load Curves Storage

New Business model of EV Will Change the Concept of Power Dispatch Fixed Mobile Stations Stations Wireless Wireless Charging Charging EV Integration Operator 流动站点 退役电池 回收 EV Business Model and Integrated Operation of Power System

Energy Storage of EV Case Study for 2030 in Beijing

880GW Flexible Coal Will Provide Support for Stable and Reliable Operation of the Power System in 2050