Environmental Change Institute Energy Demand: What are the challenges now? Teddinet, London, 15 th June 2018 Nick Eyre June 27, 2018
The long term trend in fossil fuels use IPCC WGIII, 2014
...and the implications of the Paris Agreement Almost all analysis shows that either a 1.5C Rogelj, J., Schaeffer, M., Meinshausen, M., Knutti, R., Alcamo, or 2C target implies J., Riahi, K., Hare, W., 2015. Zero emission targets as long-term global goals for climate protection. • early action and rapid Environmental Research Letters 10, 105007. decarbonisation • Changes in energy supply and demand • A major role for electrification
Demand Side Issues in Future Energy Systems § Energy efficiency and conservation: § reducing demand § Demand response: § shifting demand in time § Fuel switching, e.g. electrification: § increasing electricity demand § Distributed generation and storage: § Challenging the supply/demand dichotomy
Technology-human interactions matter
Socio-technical change § The frequency and intensity of energy service demand matters; and is socially/culturally driven. § Social change is happening, especially, but not only driven by digital change. § There is a design-use ‘performance gap’ across a wide range of products § Buildings tend to be an extreme case: § They are very diverse § They constructed on site, with variable skill levels, § They host multiple energy services.
Challenges for policy and research § How do low energy systems (especially buildings) perform in practice? § How do we innovate (technically, socially and commercially) and disseminate learning? § How do we up-skill supply chains to deliver? § How do we ‘up-educate’ users? § Where and how can smart systems help? § How do we design the ‘smart/dumb’ interface?
New challenge 1 - Energy and time Two aspects § Balancing electricity supply and demand § Balancing heat supply and demand
The balancing problem in electricity Solar and wind supply in Germany, August 2015 (Ehlers, 50 Hz) The share of wind & solar varies from 2% to 70% of 60 GW demand. This requires other parts of the system to be flexible
The challenge of delivering flexibility § Electricity system balancing will require some combination of § flexible generation, § interconnection. § demand side response (DSR), § storage.
Delivering DSR Smart metering is an enabler, not a panacea Constraints and drivers on DSR uptake are likely to be: § Customer engagement § Social acceptability § Business model innovation § Market and tariff structures Assuming universal half-hourly pricing may be unrealistic Decision making models based of economic rationality do not work well for energy decisions
Electricity storage § Historically expensive, but battery costs driven down by mobile and transport markets § The appropriate scale and location of deployment are contested Nykvist, B.& Nilsson, M.Nature Climate Change, 2015 Cost reductions to $150/kWh look feasible, which makes batteries a game-changing technology for diurnal storage
New challenge 2 - Fuel switching § 80% of final energy demand is not electricity; predominantly energy is used in transport and heating. § Electrification of transport implies a large increase in battery storage, which may assist with flexibility. § Electrification of heating has very different characteristics.
Some history of carbon based fuels First practical use in Europe of carbon based fuels for: § electricity: late 19 th century § transport: early 19 th century § heat: 176,000 years ago. § So it’s not surprising that carbon based heating is strongly-embedded in our economic and social systems.
Heating demand is highly seasonal Modelled UK End Use Gas Demand 180 160 Author calculations based on National Grid 140 modelling methodology 120 100 GW 80 60 40 20 0
…and is very weather dependent Modelled UK End use Gas Demand 180 160 140 Author calculations based on National Grid 120 modelling methodology 100 GW 80 Average 60 Cold 40 20 0
Problems for UK heat decarbonisation Sources of zero carbon fuel are limited § Indigenous biofuel is limited § Complete dependence on electric heat pumps would lead to implausible requirements for electricity capacity. § CCS is expensive and not established So infrastructure requirements are not known § Electricity is not a complete solution § Heat networks alone don’t address the key questions of the heat source. § Re-purposing of gas networks is possible, but implies a major hydrogen programme. All of which indicates that reducing heat demand will be important
The Centre for Research into Energy Demand Solutions (CREDS): What is it? • A research centre funded by the Energy Programme of UK Research and Innovation for the period April 2018 to March 2023, with a budget of £19.5 million. • A distributed centre, involving thirteen UK universities, with an HQ at University of Oxford. • A mandate to undertake whole system research focussing on energy demand and to act as a ‘hub’ for the UK energy demand research community.
A UK Centre for Research on Energy Demand: Why? • Energy system context: • Systemic change to low/zero carbon over a few decades; • Security and affordability remain social and political priorities; • Changes in energy demand will be critical to delivery, but this is under-recognised in much public discourse. • UK Research and Innovation landscape context: • EUED Phase 1 Centres provide a strong base of research; • Some deficiencies in coherence and therefore the impact of the RCUK EUED Programme
The Centre’s Aims • to develop and deliver internationally leading research, focussing on energy demand; • to secure impact for UK energy demand research in businesses and policymaking; • to champion the importance of energy demand, as part of the strategy for transition to a secure and affordable low carbon energy system.
Centre Structure and Governance
Research Programme Design Criteria • Criteria for selection of research themes: • Sufficiently comprehensive to be an effective ‘hub’ for the UK energy demand research community; • Sufficiently focussed to allow for exciting and innovative research. • Criteria for selection of research topics • Further – going beyond currently cost effective technologies and minor behavioural changes; • Faster – increasing the pace of innovation, and using more ambitious policy intervention; • Flexibly – adding fuel switching and demand response to the demand reduction agenda.
Themes Transport Buildings Materials Digital Flexibility Policy
CREDS: key dates and information •Now: General enquiries email: ukcredadmin@eci.ox.ac.uk •Coming soon: Website (temporary) http://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/research/energy/creds/index.html •Centre launch – London, 20 th September •Challenges call for outline proposals: October 2018 •Flexible Fund first call: Spring 2019
Spare slides
Year 1 Integrating Project: Energy Demand Change in the Clean Growth Strategy (Lead: Eyre, Oxford) StrategicArea Lead Theme Business and Industry Efficiency Materials Improving Our Homes Buildings Low Carbon Transport Transport Clean, Smart, Flexible Power Flexibility • Research Questions: How will the ambitious energy demand aims be delivered? What social and technical changes? And what are the innovation and policy implications? • Key outputs: an academic review paper and policy briefing.
Theme 1: Buildings (Oreszczyn, UCL) • 1.1: Assessing the co-benefits of energy efficiency • Health, comfort, peak power control • 1.2: Future disrupters of building energy use • Real-time performance-based building energy certificates; DSM as a power reduction service • 1.3: Modelling future pathways for energy use in buildings • Data improvement, 3D simulation model development and applications, with a focus on improved time granularity.
Theme 2: Transport and Mobility (Anable, Leeds) • 2.1: Targeting high demand • Characterising high energy users; understanding long distance transport • 2.2: Flexing transport demand • Understanding the flexibility of passenger mobility; a quantified model of flexibility • 2.3: Accelerating deployment • Governance of mobility change; the Commission on Travel Demand
Theme 3: Materials and Products (Barrett, Leeds) • 3.1: Industrial energy demand and energy efficiency • Systematic review of options; improved projections; international comparison and benchmarking • 3.2: Resource productivity and the circular economy • Whole life mitigation options; national metrics of resource productivity; case study on construction resource productivity. • 3.3: Industrial strategy and energy productivity • Improved model of energy as a factor of production; better representation in models of mitigation options; assessing implications for UK industrial strategy
Theme 4: Flexibility (Torriti, Reading) • 4.1: Defining, conceptualising and measuring flexibility • Historical review and future assessment of demand flexibility; measurement of electricity flexibility; conceptualising flexibility • 4.2: Intervening to enhance flexibility • Understanding user practices with flexible technologies; time dependent price elasticities; institutional rhythms and flexibility.
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