“Energy & Climate Policy Update: Strategies for Wyoming Policymakers in a Low-Carbon Environment Wyoming Infrastructure Authority’s Spring Energy Conference; Jackson, Wyoming March 29, 2019
News from the Past Couple of Weeks Alone Sources: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/436183-google-gm-launch-group-focused-on-expanding-renewable-energy; https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/05/bp-to-support-investor-call-for-alignment-with-paris-agreement/; https://www.ft.com/content/87cfc31e-44e7-11e9-b168- 96a37d002cd3; https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/20/investing/occidental-carbon-neutral-oil-shale/index.html
And Just This Morning Source: E&E News (March 29, 2019)
Presentation Overview Update on International, Federal, Regional & State Energy/Climate Laws & Policies of Relevance for Wyoming Current State of Play of U.S. Energy Markets Update on the Wyoming CarbonSAFE Project Possible Strategies for Wyoming Policymakers in a Low-Carbon Environment
Energy/Climate Law & Policy Update
Climate Policy Has Been a Fixture of International Law for Decades United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992) o U.S. is a Party o “Objective” is “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system ”; generally understood to mean global annual mean surface temperature increase should not exceed 2°C above pre-industrial levels o “Pre - industrial levels” (~1750) were about 280 ppm CO 2 o The 2°C target equates to about 450 ppm CO 2 by 2050 o As of March 25, 2019, the level was 411 ppm CO 2 Kyoto Protocol U.S. not a Party, but relevant for Wyoming because we export energy Effectively ends next year
The Keeling Curve (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) 2°C = 450 ppm Source: https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/
Paris Agreement: the New International Climate Treaty “Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre- industrial levels …” Takes effect next year; will replace the Kyoto Protocol U.S. is a Party, but has filed papers to start the four-year process of withdrawing o Yesterday, House D’s introduced a bill to keep the U.S. in the Paris Agreement Requires the effective de-carbonization of all fossil energy systems by 2050 That 2050 date has been pushed forward, however, under last fall’s IPCC 1.5C report Sources: Paris Agreement, art. 2 (FCCC/CP/2015/L.9); IPCC Special Report -- https://www.ipcc.ch/2018/10/08/summary-for- policymakers-of-ipcc-special-report-on-global-warming-of-1-5c-approved-by-governments/; https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/
Regulation of GHG Emissions is Authorized Under Federal Law; & EPA is Still Regulating U.S. Supreme Court : Greenhouse gases (GHGs) are “air pollutants” under the Clean Air Act and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has authority to regulate them ( Massachusetts v. EPA, 549 U.S. 497 (2007)) EPA : EPA has been exercising that authority for the past decade, and to this day continues to regulate GHG emissions from both stationary and mobile (e.g., vehicles) sources While the Trump Administration has proposed to modify many of these GHG emission standards, key legal aspects (e.g., Endangerment Finding) remain intact and Massachusetts v. EPA remains the law of the land
U.S. House is Developing a Climate Bill for Likely Passage Prior to Nov 2020 Energy & Commerce Committee (primary jurisdiction) Rep. Tonko (D-NY), Chair, E&C Subcommittee on Env. & Climate Change, “A Framework for Climate Action in the U.S. Congress” (Mar. 21, 2019) Other Committees Playing a Jurisdictional Role Agriculture (Minnesota, AG, CCUS) Natural Resources Science, Space & Technology New Select Committee on the Climate Crisis (developing a legislative record, holding hearings, driving messaging)
Back to the Future: It’s 2008/2009 Again on Capitol Hill for Climate Policy L R Clean Energy Standards Market-Based Approaches Set Forth by the New Democrat Coalition’s Climate Various “direct actions” Change Task Force conducted, with more planned (summer 2019 D Presidential debates) Sources & Image Credits: https://www.sunrisemovement.org/; https://www.carbontax.org/; https://eos.org/articles/congressional-task-force-outlines-its-approach-to-climate-change
Order of Battle for Some Major Federal Legislative Climate Policy Proposals Name/Bill No. General Approach Relevance for Wyoming Personal Observations Sunrise Movement’s Green Not a bill; a resolution instead General accelerates the Paris Agreement’s mid - Motivated by IPCC 1.5C report New Deal; H.Res. 109 (91 co- century goals (and earlier goals of some states) to sponsors); S.Res. 59 (12 co- “[T]o achieve net -zero {GHG] emissions 2030 Sponsors: AOC (House); Markey (Senate) sponsors) through a fair and just transition for all communities and workers” through a 10 -year Discounts fossil mitigation, including CCS/CCUS, Takes the Stanford position that 100% renewables, mobilization (H.Res. 109) although “zero - emission” presumably is an supported with grid-scale storage, is technically, opening economically and commercially feasible sooner rather than 100% of “power demand” to be met through later “clean, renewable, and zero -emission energy sources” Endorsed by several D Presidential candidates H.R. 763, “Energy Innovation & Carbon tax; bill imposes a fee on carbon Explicitly recognizes CCS/CCUS Has 26 co-sponsors Carbon Dividend Act of 2019” content of fossil fuels and products derived from them; begins at $15 in 2019, increasing by $10/year Bill includes “rebates for facilities that capture and sequester carbon dioxide” Collected fees used for administration and dividend payments to citizens Minnesota-led Clean Energy Not yet introduced; being developed Ability to generate credits from CCUS systems on Standard non-electric sector sources, but must be 100% clean energy by 2050 partnered with a specific EGU (enables the electric sector to meet the 100% goal and still retain some use of fossil fuels); for non-EGU CCUS, “partner” natural gas units will earn more credits than “partner” coal units for the same amount of CO 2 captured Sources: Thomas.gov; congress.gov (bill searches, other); author’s notes & research; Carbon Utilization Research Council
A Capitol Hill Consideration for Wyoming vis-à-vis Climate Policy Some Monday Morning Quarterbacking: A decade ago, the Waxman- Markey bill included billions of dollars in bonus allowances (read: “subsidies”) for CCS/CCUS & other goodies for coal states Where would CCS/CCUS be today had Waxman-Markey become law then? One of these days, there will be no more trains to catch Image credit: https://steemit.com/investments/@garyhay101/the-train-is-leaving-the-station-to-cryptoland-all-aboard
Many States Have Separate Climate-Related Policies GHG Emission Standards for Power Plants GHG Emission Targets Source: Center for Climate and Energy Solutions (Feb. 2019 data)
Many States Have Separate Climate-Related Policies Renewable/Clean Energy Electricity Portfolio Standards Low Carbon & Alternative Fuel Standards Source: Center for Climate and Energy Solutions (Feb. 2019 data)
Status of Selected New State Climate Laws & Bills Sources: State legislative searches
Status of Selected State Climate Laws, Bills, Other Sources: State legislative searches
Current State of Play of U.S. Energy Markets, As Influenced by Climate Policies
An Energy Transition is Underway General Trends for Electricity Generation o Policies being put in place in some States to de-carbonize in the 2035-2050 window o It feels as if natural gas is where coal was about 20 years ago or so; California, for example, is exploring how to back-out gas in lieu of grid-scale storage • Yesterday, Florida Power & Light announced its planning to build a 409 MW storage system then retire gas plants o The role of CCS/CCUS is in play General Trends for Transportation Fuels o Vehicles -- Push is on for electricity as a transportation fuel, driven in part by decarbonization considerations; some countries in Europe have enacted future bans on the internal combustion engine; could electrification provide a business opportunity for zero-carbon coal? o Aviation – Pilot phase of the ICAO “Carbon Offsetting & Reduction Scheme for International Aviation” begins next year (2021) o Maritime – Last year IMO adopted a strategy that largely aligns the shipping industry with the Paris Agreement General Trends for Industrials, Steel, Cement, Other o Taking a hard look at CCS/CCUS; also considering other technologies (e.g., H 2 in lieu of coking coal for steel) Source: https://www.icao.int/environmental-protection/CORSIA/Pages/default.aspx; http://www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/HotTopics/GHG/Pages/default.aspx
Wyoming CarbonSAFE Project: Update & Current Status
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