Heart+Mind Pulse SM Wave 17 August 27, 2020 n=1,003 US adults age 18+ Online Fielded August 19-20, 2020 Pg. 1
End of Summer Optimism • Economy and Public Health seen getting better • Social Order, Peace of Mind, Success see significant increases • Negative emotions down, Hope and Optimism up • Travel and Daily Activities continue slow march back-to-normal • Minority of Americans believe a second shut down is coming • Optimism connected to a significant bump for incumbent President Trump Pg. 2
Heart+Mind Pulse SM Dashboard August 20, 2020 The Coronavirus is a Mood Segments Health Impact Real Threat The state of public health is 36% (-6) poor/in crisis 55% Concerned Realists (+3) We need to put all our energy 73% 44% (+2) into protecting public health 26% Hopeful Optimists (+3) (-3) (-6) 19% Anxious Worriers Personal impact will last 34% (-4) longer than 1 year Effect of Pandemic on Communities Economic Impact 60% The state of the US economy 39% (-3) is poor/in crisis 51% Driving Us 50% Further Apart We need to balance public 40% 43% (-2) health with economic concerns 30% 29% Bringing Us Closer Together 20% Economic impact will last 50% (-2) longer than 1 year 10% 0% MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST Pg. 3
Large Gains for Social Order, Peace of Mind and Success Getting Better Concern for others -5 8 +8 Dependability 0 +4 Tolerance -1 Success +9 -2 Sense of Belonging +4 -2 Pride +3 -2 Self-esteem -2 +5 Productivity -4 Inclusiveness +3 -6 Getting Worse Fulfillment +5 -8 Satisfaction -9 Well-Being +5 -10 Accomplishment -3 -10 Happiness +3 -12 Enjoyment +4 -15 Peace of Mind +6 -19 Security -21 Social Order +8 -22 Freedom +3 -22 Pg. 4
Negative Emotions Down Across the Board Q: Please select the words below that best describe the way you feel right now in light of current events. MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST 70% 60% 50% 46% Concerned 40% 37% Worried 34% Cautious 30% 30% Anxious 24% Angry 20% 18% Scared 10% 0% 19-Mar 26-Mar 2-Apr 9-Apr 16-Apr 23-Apr 30-Apr 7-May 14-May 21-May 28-May 11-Jun 25-Jun 9-Jul 23-Jul 6-Aug 20-Aug Pg. 5
Travel in the next month up 10+ points since May Q: When are you likely to do each of the following? % Within the Next Month MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST 35% 31% Biz trip by car 30% 29% Public Transit 27% Biz trip by plane/train 25% 25% Personal trip by car 20% 18% Personal trip plane/train 15% 10% 5% 0% 14-May 21-May 28-May 11-Jun 25-Jun 9-Jul 23-Jul 6-Aug 20-Aug NOTE: Data is among those for whom event is applicable Pg. 7
Americans slowly resuming day-to-day activities Q: When are you likely to do each of the following? % Within the Next Month MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST 50% 40% 37% Eat at a restaurant 32% Attend worship 30% 28% Go to the gym 20% 10% 0% 14-May 21-May 28-May 11-Jun 25-Jun 9-Jul 23-Jul 6-Aug 20-Aug NOTE: Data is among those for whom event is applicable Pg. 8
A second lockdown looks less likely to Americans Q: How likely do you think it is that your state will see a spike in coronavirus cases that leads to a second shelter-in-place or stay-at-home order? Q: The vast majority of the country should stay shut down until there is a vaccine or effective treatment for coronavirus. JULY AUGUST 60% 50% 48% Country Should Stay Shut Down Until We Have a Vaccine Completely/Somewhat Agree 40% 36% Second Stay Home Order in My State 30% Extremely/Very Likely 20% 10% 0% 9-Jul 23-Jul 6-Aug 20-Aug Pg. 10
Significant bump for President Trump Who Do You Plan to Vote For? (Among Likely Voters) +5 -5 45% Vote for Trump 46% Vote for Biden 38% Definitely 42% Definitely vote for Trump vote for Biden 7% Probably/Lean vote for Trump 5% Probably/Lean vote for Biden 3% Vote for 4% Hard Someone else 2% Decline Undecided BASE: Potential Voters (n=874) Pg. 11 Q1073: Who, if anyone, do you plan to vote for in the November 2020 US Presidential election?
Pg. 12
Tribalism Pg. 13
Threat levels vary by party but largely steady Q: Do you think the coronavirus is…a real threat OR blown out of proportion? Coronavirus is a Real Threat MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST 100% 90% 87% Democrats 80% 73% TOTAL 70% 62% Republicans 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 19-Mar 26-Mar 2-Apr 9-Apr 16-Apr 23-Apr 30-Apr 7-May 14-May 21-May 28-May 11-Jun 25-Jun 9-Jul 23-Jul 6-Aug 20-Aug Pg. 14
Impression of Social Order dependent on existing worldview Q: How has the way you feel in each of these areas changed, if at all, as compared to how you felt before all of this COVID-19 reality started? Net Positive: Social Order MAY APRIL JUNE JULY AUGUST -50% -45% -40% -37 Independents -35% -30% -29 Democrats -25% -20% -15% -10% -8 Republicans -5% 0% 23-Apr 30-Apr 7-May 14-May 21-May 28-May 11-Jun 25-Jun 9-Jul 23-Jul 6-Aug 20-Aug Pg. 15
Anxiety levels start even and quickly split Q: Please select the words below that best describe the way you feel right now in light of current events. Feel Anxious MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST 60% 50% 40% 34% Democrats 30% 27% Republicans 20% 10% 0% 19-Mar 26-Mar 2-Apr 9-Apr 16-Apr 23-Apr 30-Apr 7-May 14-May 21-May 28-May 11-Jun 25-Jun 9-Jul 23-Jul 6-Aug 20-Aug Pg. 16
Republican anger spikes with racial unrest Q: Please select the words below that best describe the way you feel right now in light of current events. Feel Angry MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST 40% 35% 30% 25% Democrats 25% 23% Republicans 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 19-Mar 26-Mar 2-Apr 9-Apr 16-Apr 23-Apr 30-Apr 7-May 14-May 21-May 28-May 11-Jun 25-Jun 9-Jul 23-Jul 6-Aug 20-Aug Pg. 17
Democratic Hope peaks during racial protests Q: Please select the words below that best describe the way you feel right now in light of current events. Feel Hopeful MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST 45% 40% 39% Republicans 35% 34% Democrats 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 19-Mar 26-Mar 2-Apr 9-Apr 16-Apr 23-Apr 30-Apr 7-May 14-May 21-May 28-May 11-Jun 25-Jun 9-Jul 23-Jul 6-Aug 20-Aug Pg. 18
Despite similar levels of optimism today, partisans have been on a different journey since March Q: Please select the words below that best describe the way you feel right now in light of current events. Feel Optimism MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST 35% 30% 25% 23% Republicans 20% Democrats 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 19-Mar 26-Mar 2-Apr 9-Apr 16-Apr 23-Apr 30-Apr 7-May 14-May 21-May 28-May 11-Jun 25-Jun 9-Jul 23-Jul 6-Aug 20-Aug Pg. 19
Business response generally seen as positive and steady Q: Overall, how would you rate businesses and organizations in their response to the coronavirus crisis? APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST 60% 50% 40% 39% Excellent/Good Response 30% 20% 20% Terrible/Bad Response 10% 0% 2-Apr 9-Apr 16-Apr 23-Apr 30-Apr 7-May 14-May 21-May 28-May 11-Jun 25-Jun 9-Jul 23-Jul 6-Aug 20-Aug Pg. 20
Strong differences in view of business response by party Q: Overall, how would you rate businesses and organizations in their response to the coronavirus crisis? Business Response is Excellent/Good JULY APRIL MAY JUNE AUGUST 70% 60% 50% 48% Republicans 40% 35% Democrats 30% 20% 10% 0% 2-Apr 9-Apr 16-Apr 23-Apr 30-Apr 7-May 14-May 21-May 28-May 11-Jun 25-Jun 9-Jul 23-Jul 6-Aug 20-Aug Pg. 21
Trust in Local Government and Media Less Partisan, Police and Public Health Orgs Most Divisive Q: How much trust do you have in the following sources of information? % Trust Completely/A Great Deal Partisan Total Republican Democrat Difference Local Law Enforcement 45% 62% 37% +25 Federal Government 25% 39% 21% +18 Employer 37% 45% 33% +12 City/Local Government 35% 39% 37% +2 State Government 38% 43% 41% +2 Newspapers/Magazines 27% 29% 28% +1 Broadcast News Media 29% 29% 35% -6 CDC 49% 48% 57% -9 WHO 42% 40% 52% -12 Pg. 22
One Point of Agreement: Tribalism is Here and Getting Worse Q: Overall, would you say the outbreak of the coronavirus is bringing our communities and the people in our country closer together and making us more unified, or is it driving us further apart and making us more divided? Pandemic is Driving Us Further Apart MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE AUGUST JULY 60% 53% Democrats 51% TOTAL 50% 48% Republicans 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 19-Mar 26-Mar 2-Apr 9-Apr 16-Apr 23-Apr 30-Apr 7-May 14-May 21-May 28-May 11-Jun 25-Jun 9-Jul 23-Jul 6-Aug 20-Aug Pg. 23
Tribalism shortened to mean “political party” but that is not the full story Republican Democrat Real Threat 62% 87% Blown Out of Proportion 38% 13% Public Health Focus 34% 59% Balance Health + Economy 56% 30% Angry 23% 25% Concerned 42% 52% Cautious 27% 39% Shut Down Until Vaccine/Treatment 41% 60% Trump 90% 6% Biden 7% 86% Pg. 24
Tribalism Takeaways • Even the most colossal societal events have to be analyzed through the eyes of your audience. - The more impactful the event, the less likely there is to be consensus on it • Different tribes will look to different role models and influencers • Americans use political parties as a signal for their tribes but not all partisans are tribal and not all tribes identify with politics Pg. 25
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