HELCOM Load Group Meeting 7/2014 Information on additional POPs: emissions and deposition to the Baltic Sea Alexey Gusev Meteorological Synthesizing Centre East of EMEP MSC-E www.msceast.org МСЦ-В
EMEP deliverables on additional hazardous substances List of pollutants discussed at HELCOM LOAD 4/2012: PAHs, PCBs, PBDEs, HBCD Current status of POP pollution assessment within LRTAP Convention: Data on PAHs and PCBs are regularly reported (emissions, monitoring, and modelling) PBDEs and HBCD are under consideration for the inclusion to the POP Protocol MSC-E МСЦ-В
Emission data for modelling Officially reported emission data : PAHs, PCBs ~40 countries Includes: gridded data, source categories, national totals Time period: 1990 – current reporting year (2012) 4 PAHs emission for 2011 Expert estimates of emissions: TNO inventory for Europe: PAHs, PCBs, PCDD/Fs, PBDE, … Global inventory of PCBs (1930-2100) - [K. Breivik et al., 2007], 22 PCB congeners MSC-E МСЦ-В
Evaluation of modelling results on PAHs: spatial trends 0.8 Measured 0.7 B[a]P air concentrations, ng/m 3 Calculated 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 MD13 PL5 LV10 DE9 CZ3 SI8 DE1 DE8 ES8 NL91 NL9 DE3 KZ1 NO2 FI96 NO90 NO42 CY2 SE11 BE13 SE14 SE12 Comparison with measurements Modelled annual mean B[a]P air of EMEP monitoring network concentrations for 2010, ng/m 3 Agreement between the model results and measurements is mostly within a factor of 2 MSC-E МСЦ-В
Evaluation of modelling results on PCBs: temporal trends Study of PCB pollution within Northern Atlantic in cooperation with OSPAR: Reasonable agreement (factor of 2-3) was found between Evaluation of long-term the model results and measurements for most of the EMEP trends in concentrations monitoring sites and deposition fluxes in period 1990-2006 Computed versus measured annual mean air concentrations of PCB-153, pg/m 3 MSC-E МСЦ-В
Modelling of New Substances (HBCDD and PBDE) Evaluation of long-range transport potential and overall persistence HBCDD PBDE (BDE-47) 70% 70% Estimated Persistence in the environment: Content Content 60% 60% HBCDD – 11 days, BDE-47 – 170 days Degradation Degradation 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% Available information (expert estimates of emissions) allows carrying Air Soil Sea Vegetation Air Soil Sea Vegetation out modelling for particular PBDE congeners. Annual degradation and distribution in different environmental For HBCDD such assessment requires further cooperation with compartments (in %) countries and experts to construct gridded emission data. MSC-E МСЦ-В
EMEP POP model: transition to lat-lon grid and finer resolution Modelling of HMs and POPs: EMEP Global domain Resolution – 1 ° x 1 ° Current EMEP domain Projection – Stereographic Model domains Resolution – 50 × 50 km 2 New EMEP domain Projection – Lat-Lon Resolution – 0.2 °× 0.2 ° (0.1 °× 0.1 ° ) Transition period is 2014-2016 MSC-E МСЦ-В
Concluding remarks • Evaluation of PAH and PCB pollution is included in the routine activities of EMEP (compilation of emissions, monitoring, and model assessment). • For individual PAH and PCB congeners estimates of pollution can be provided in similar way as for HMs and PCDD/Fs (Time-series of deposition to the Baltic Sea and its sub-basins). • For PBDE and HBCDD pilot evaluation of pollution levels for the Baltic Sea region could be performed if gridded emission data are available (at least for the Baltic Sea region). • The work on PBDE and HBCDD requires further cooperation with national experts with regard to the refinement of available data on their emissions and observed levels of pollution. MSC-E МСЦ-В
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