Emerging Automotive Trends: Chinese, Electric, & Shared 1
My Research Space Market analysis: ● ● Innovation: ● ● 2
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China: World’s largest vehicle market & room to grow 4
China: World’s largest vehicle market & room to grow EU (2015) Japan (2015) 5
China: World’s largest vehicle market & room to grow EU (2015) Japan (2015) 6
In 2015, ~ 1/3 of all new cars in world were made in China 7
China becoming #1 market for many global automakers 2015 Sales by Top 7 Automakers (75% of Global Sales) 8
Fun Fact: Buicks are wildly popular in China In 2015, 77% of Buick’s Sales were in China Zhou Enlai’s Buick at his Shanghai residence [2] Emperor Pu Yi’s 1932 Buick Tudor [1] 9 1: http://www.verztec.com/blog/index.php/2010/11/rebuilding-your-brand-in-china/ 2: http://insight.amcham-shanghai.org/buicks-road-success-china/
2017 Buick Enclave will be imported from China 10 Image source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Buick_Envision_01_China_2015-04-06.jpg
Electric Cars 11 11 Image source: https://www.memecenter.com/fun/139651/Electric-car
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Plug-in Vehicles (PEVs) 13
Rapid PEV Sales Growth in China & Europe ( U.S. Slowing Down? ) 14
Global Automakers (+ Tesla & BYD) Are Charging Ahead (Lame joke) 15
PEVs Only < 1-2% of Global Vehicle Sales 16
Same Old Problems... High Cost Limited Range & Infrastructure 1st Ford Model T Image Source: Mom, Gijs. "The electric vehicle: Technology and expectations in the automobile age." The Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, MD. 2004. Image Source: Wakefield, Ernest Henry. "History of the electric automobile: battery-only 17 powered cars." Society of Automotive Engineers, Inc. Warrendale, PA 1994.
Policy-Drivers for PEV Industry Growth Subsidies Fuel Economy Standards Zero Emission Vehicle Standards 18
U.S. & China Offer Similar Subsidies for PEVs 19
Battery is still ~ 25% of BEV Cost ( 2015 est. ) 20
Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) 21 Image Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corporate_Average_Fuel_Economy
Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) 22
“Zero Emission” Vehicle (ZEV) 23
Ex: Tesla 2015 Sales by State No ZEV Standard ZEV Compliant 24 Data Source: http://insideevs.com/california-leads-nation-in-tesla-model-s-sales-but-which-other-states-are-in-top-10/
ZEV credit sales not a negligible revenue source R&D Expenditures ZEV Credit Sales Revenue 2016 Q3: $139 million in ZEV credits turned a $117 million loss into a $22 million profit 25 Data source: Tesla shareholder letters
Local Policy Impacts in China Beijing Shanghai ~ 26
Traditional Business Models for PEVs: Design, Build, Sell 27
Tesla’s Strategy: Tiered Cost Reduction Through Scale Up Roadster (2008): Price Volumes ● $110,000 ● ~1,800 sold in 30 countries Model S (2012): ● $71,000 ● ~20,000 units / year Model 3 (2018?): ● $35,000 ● ~100,000 units / year Roadster: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Tesla_Roadster_--_02-11-2011.jpg 28 Model S:https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Tesla_Model_S_Japan_trimmed.jpg Model 3: https://c1.staticflickr.com/2/1527/25601887064_b3ff4b9a47_z.jpg
Big factories won’t make batteries cheap Estimated 2013 Battery Capacity Production Volume "Battery economies of scale are exhausted Model S 1100 MWh quickly, at around 200-300 Leaf 500 MWh MWh of annual production. That's Volt 400 MWh comparable to the amount of batteries produced for C-Max Energi 50 MWh the Nissan Leaf last year" Prius PHEV 50 MWh - Jeremy Michalek, CMU Focus Elec 40 MWh RAV4EV 30 MWh 29 Source: Sakti, Apurba, et al. "A techno-economic analysis and optimization of Li-ion batteries for light-duty passenger vehicle electrification." Journal of Power Sources 273 (2015): 966-980.
Tesla’s only had 2 positive profit quarters since going public Revenue Net Profit 30
...but Tesla also built an infrastructure 31 Image source: http://www.hybridcars.com/tesla-updates-map-of-supercharger-sites/
Emerging Business Models for PEVs 32
Why do elevators have mirrors? 33 Image source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/34323101@N00/26472155
Hyperbolic Discounting: People value smaller-sooner rewards over larger-later rewards 34 Image source: https://blog.kissmetrics.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/unnamed.png
These two cars have the same lifetime cost 35
Battery leasing makes PEVs Without battery lease “look” more like CVs With battery lease Image source: https://www.renault.co.uk/vehicles/new-vehicles/zoe-250/battery-and-charging.html 36
Battery Leasing + Battery Swap Better Place: Classic failure case Barriers to this taking off: ● No battery standardization ● High infrastructure costs ...and we may never need it: ● Batteries are getting cheaper (more range for less $) ● Quick charging getting better (rapid to 80% SOC) 37 Image source: http://automotivedigest.com/2013/06/sad-ending-for-ev-battery-swapping-icon-better-place/
Car Sharing 38
PEV vs. CV for Car Sharing PEV Advantages PEV Disadvantages ● ● ● ● ● ● 39
Making BEV Car Sharing Work 40
Ex: Car2Go, San Diego ● ● ● ● 41 Image source: http://www.autoblog.com/2016/03/17/car2go-kills-all-ev-fleet-san-diego-gas-cars/
Ex: Yiduyongche, Beijing China ● ● ● ● 42 Image source: http://www.yiduyongche.com/index.html
Ex: Eakay, Wuhu China ● ● ● ● ~ ● 43
Low Speed EVs - the Real Disruptors? 44
Low Speed EVs - the Real Disruptors? Read: “The Future of Electric Vehicles Is Golf Carts, Not Tesla” by Thomas Bartman, Harvard Business Review 45
LSEV Industry Structure Radically Different Conventional Vehicles LSEVs Firm / Industry Horizontal Vertical Structure # of Parts Per ~30,000 ~1,000 Vehicle Minimum Efficient ~100,000 / year ~10,000 / year Plant Size 46 Image sources: https://en.wikipedia.org/
Thanks! 微信 47
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Extra Slides 49
3 Reasons China’s Leadership Wants PEVs Reduce Pollution Reduce Oil Dependence Establish Industry Leadership 50
Reduce Pollution (?) 51
China: world’s largest oil importer, 2nd largest oil consumer China is importing 55% of consumption! 52
Independent domestic firms are leading China’s PEV market 53
Independent domestic firms are leading China’s PEV market 54
Are batteries too expensive? 55 Source: Nykvist, Björn, and Måns Nilsson. "Rapidly falling costs of battery packs for electric vehicles." Nature Climate Change 5.4 (2015): 329-332.
Loss Aversion: People would rather avoid a loss than reap a reward 56 Image source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/09/your-money/overcoming-an-aversion-to-loss.html
Can BEVs Drive Far Enough? 57 Image source: http://www.solarjourneyusa.com/EVdistanceAnalysis7.php
Can BEVs Drive Far Enough? 2017 Chevy Bolt (240 mi) 58 Image source: http://www.solarjourneyusa.com/EVdistanceAnalysis7.php
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