KT1 Keynote 11/8/2012 8:30 AM "Embracing Uncertainty: A Most Difficult Leap of Faith" Presented by: Dan North Lean Technology Specialist Brought to you by: 340 Corporate Way, Suite 300, Orange Park, FL 32073 888 ‐ 268 ‐ 8770 ∙ 904 ‐ 278 ‐ 0524 ∙ sqeinfo@sqe.com ∙ www.sqe.com
Dan North Lean Technology Specialist Programmer and organizational change specialist Dan North applies principles from lean operations and agile software development to help organizations align their technology capabilities with their business objectives. With twenty years of experience in IT, Dan is a frequent speaker at technology conferences worldwide, has published feature articles in numerous software and business publications, and contributed to The RSpec Book: Behaviour Driven Development with RSpec, Cucumber, and Friends and 97 Things Every Programmer Should Know: Collective Wisdom from the Experts . The originator of Behaviour-Driven Development (BDD) and Deliberate Discovery, Dan is currently working on his book Patterns of Effective Delivery , helping organizations radically improve their delivery. He blogs at dannorth.net .
Embracing Uncertainty Dan North Dan North & Associates @tastapod
Patterns of Effective Delivery @tastapod
Faster Software Delivery @tastapod
With apologies to George Lucas… Fear leads to Risk Risk leads to Process Process leads to Hate …and suffering and product backlogs @tastapod
With apologies to George Lucas… Fear leads to Risk Risk leads to Process Process leads to Hate …and suffering and product backlogs @tastapod
Understanding risk Impact ∞ Likelihood [0.0, 1.0] @tastapod
Snowbird 2001 Individuals and interactions over processes and tools Working software over comprehensive documentation Customer collaboration over contract negotiation Responding to change over following a plan @tastapod
Everywhere 2012 Individuals and interactions over processes and tools Working software over comprehensive documentation Customer collaboration over contract negotiation Responding to change over following a plan @tastapod
Everywhere 2012 Processes and tools over individuals and interactions Working software over comprehensive documentation Customer collaboration over contract negotiation Responding to change over following a plan @tastapod
Everywhere 2012 Processes and tools over individuals and interactions Comprehensive documentation over working software Customer collaboration over contract negotiation Responding to change over following a plan @tastapod
Everywhere 2012 Processes and tools over individuals and interactions Comprehensive documentation over working software Contract negotiation over customer collaboration Responding to change over following a plan @tastapod
Everywhere 2012 Processes and tools over individuals and interactions Comprehensive documentation over working software Contract negotiation over customer collaboration Following a plan over responding to change @tastapod
We crave certainty! Faith becomes religion Complex questions become simplistic answers Interpretation becomes dogma We would rather be wrong than uncertain @tastapod
So we resist uncertainty We resist uncertainty of scope We resist uncertainty of technology We resist uncertainty of effort We resist uncertainty of structure We resist uncertainty of the future @tastapod
Three Ages: a model of growth 1. Explore - optimize for discovery 2. Stabilize - optimize for repeatability 3. Commoditize - optimize for efficiency Agile methods optimize for the Second Age @tastapod
Agile methods optimize for certainty Certainty gives us predictability Predictability gives us repeatability Repeatability gives us a feeling of safety @tastapod
Deliberate discovery Ignorance is your biggest constraint You are second order ignorant (but not third!) Ignorance is multivariate and disjoint Some unexpected bad things will happen @tastapod
Deliberate discovery Ignorance is your biggest constraint You are second order ignorant (but not third!) Ignorance is multivariate and disjoint Some unexpected bad things will happen @tastapod
Deliberate discovery Ignorance is your biggest constraint You are second order ignorant (but not third!) Ignorance is multivariate and disjoint Some unexpected bad things will happen @tastapod
Deliberate discovery Ignorance is your biggest constraint You are second order ignorant (but not third!) Ignorance is multivariate and disjoint Some unexpected bad things will happen @tastapod
Real Options Options have value Options expire Commit deliberately “Never commit early unless you know why” @tastapod
Embracing uncertainty Embrace uncertainty of scope Embrace uncertainty of technology Embrace uncertainty of effort Embrace uncertainty of structure @tastapod
Why you won’t believe me Attribution bias Confirmation bias Bias bias But most of all, that craving for certainty! @tastapod
tl; dr Expect the unexpected @tastapod
tl; dr Expect the unexpectable Anticipate ignorance Embrace uncertainty – it’s inevitable! @tastapod
Thanks for listening @tastapod http://dannorth.net dan@dannorth.net @tastapod
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