ECOLOGICAL KNOWLEDGE IN OIL SPILL RISK ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT ANNUKKA LEHIKOINEN RIIKKA VENESJÄRVI RESEARCH GROUP OF FISHERIES AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
CONTENT Part 1: Assessing the spatially distributed ecological risk: Combining Bayesian networks and spatial data on ecological values Part 2: Operational use of the ecological knowledge: Conservation prioritization during oil spill response OPENRISK WS1 Lehikoinen & Venesjärvi 13/06/2017 2
PART 1: ASSESSING THE SPATIALLY DISTRIBUTED ECOLOGICAL RISK Combining Bayesian networks and spatial data on ecological values OPENRISK WS1 Lehikoinen & Venesjärvi 13/06/2017 3
BAYESIAN NETWORKS IN BRIEF • Artificial intelligence tools that integrate knowledge, logic, and rules, providing aid for thinking complex systems. • BN integrates our prevailing knowledge about the single dependencies and related uncertainties into a learning system. • Can also be seen as a scenario synthesis, where the alternative scenarios are weighted following to their realization probability. • Modular nature: any two models having at least one identical node can be connected. -> Allows long term development of learning platforms. OPENRISK WS1 Lehikoinen & Venesjärvi 13/06/2017 4
Jolma et al. 2014 OPENRISK WS1 Lehikoinen & Venesjärvi 13/06/2017 5
COMPONENTS OF THE SOFTWARE 1. Condensed version of Lehikoinen et al. (2013 and 2015) BN models • Site-specific estimates on the accident probabilities and parameters 2. SpillMod drifting simulations for 180 spill scenarios, using the weather data of 6 different years -> 1080 simulations in tot. • Probability that a grid cell is oiled 10 days after the accident 3. OILECO database (Kokkonen et al. 2010; Ihaksi et al. 2011) for mapping of nature values to support prioritization of coastal oil spill response • Conservation value for the threatened species occurring in a grid cell OPENRISK WS1 Lehikoinen & Venesjärvi 13/06/2017 6
THE ECOLOGICAL VALUATION after Ihaksi et al. 2011 OPENRISK WS1 Lehikoinen & Venesjärvi 13/06/2017 7
EXAMPLE RESULTS • In C3, P(oil accident) is 2 – 3 times the one in C4 • Acknowledging the potential harm to the known occurrences of threatened species, accident in C4 would cause a seven-fold ecological risk in comparison to C3 Figures: Jolma et al. 2014 OPENRISK WS1 Lehikoinen & Venesjärvi 13/06/2017 8
Helle et al. 2016 OPENRISK WS1 Lehikoinen & Venesjärvi 13/06/2017 9
COMPONENTS OF THE SOFTWARE • Bayesian network describing oil spills + probability maps describing oil drifting + site information and conservation value of threatened species and habitats = Spatial risk estimates for species and habitats sensitive to oil Figures: SYKE, OILRISK, I. Helle OPENRISK WS1 Lehikoinen & Venesjärvi 13/06/2017 10
Helle et al. 2016 OPENRISK WS1 Lehikoinen & Venesjärvi 13/06/2017 11
Helle et al. 2016 OPENRISK WS1 Lehikoinen & Venesjärvi 13/06/2017 12
PART 2: OPERATIONAL USE OF THE ECOLOGICAL KNOWLEDGE Conservation prioritization during oil spill response OPENRISK WS1 Lehikoinen & Venesjärvi 13/06/2017 13
OILECO Map application: OPENRISK WS1 Lehikoinen & Venesjärvi 13/06/2017 14
Ihaksi et al. 2011 OPENRISK WS1 Lehikoinen & Venesjärvi 13/06/2017 15
Ihaksi et al. 2011 OPENRISK WS1 Lehikoinen & Venesjärvi 13/06/2017 16
OILRISK MAP APPLICATION • Prioritization of nature values revised • Species database updated • Including habitats • Selection of suitable method • Shoreline response • Shoreline cleaning • Advisory tool • Oil spills • Exercises OPENRISK WS1 Lehikoinen & Venesjärvi 13/06/2017 17
OILRISK CONSERVATION PRIORITIZATION SCHEME Pre-spill Value • Populations and habitats 5 years after an oil spill Oil spill, • On the basis of Loss, no Loss t=0 protection • Oil-induced loss t=5 • Recovery potential Recovery Recovery ‒ Recolonization and reproduction cabapilities for species t=5 Size/area Size/area (0) (1) • Conservation value OILRISK index = • Protection efficiency pop. size / hab. area, protected – pop. size / hab. area, not protected OPENRISK WS1 Lehikoinen & Venesjärvi 13/06/2017 18
OILRISK MAP APPLICATION OPENRISK WS1 Lehikoinen & Venesjärvi 13/06/2017 19
TAKE-HOME MESSAGE • Definition of loss may greatly affect the results of the risk assessments • P(accident) vs. P(spill) vs. P(oiling) vs. P(ecological loss) • Valuation of the ecological loss! • When threatened species and habitats are taken into account in the GoF, clear regional differences in the risk levels can be found • For example, total ecological risk is higher in the western GoF although eastern GoF is more accident prone • In case of an oil spill, to maximize the utility gained through the restricted shoreline response or cleaning capacity, ecological understanding is needed. • To estimate the potential loss caused to the ecosystems, follow-up monitoring is needed. OPENRISK WS1 Lehikoinen & Venesjärvi 13/06/2017 20
REFERENCES Helle, I., A.Jolma and R. Venesjärvi. 2016. Species and habitats in danger: estimating the relative risk posed by oil spills in the northern Baltic Sea. Ecosphere 7(5) Ihaksi, T., Kokkonen, T., Helle, I., Jolma, A., Lecklin, T., Kuikka, S. 2011. Combining Conservation Value, Vulnerability, and Effectiveness of Mitigation Actions in Spatial Conservation Decisions: An Application to Coastal Oil Spill Combating. Environmental Management 47: 802–813. Jolma, A., Lehikoinen, A., Helle, I. & Venesjärvi, R. 2014. A software system for assessing the spatially distributed ecological risk posed by oil shipping. Environmental Modelling & Software 61: 1-11. Kokkonen, T., Ihaksi, T., Jolma, A., Kuikka, S. 2010. Dynamic mapping of nature values to support prioritization of coastal oil combating. Environmental Modelling & Software 25: 248–257. Lehikoinen, A., Luoma, E., Mäntyniemi, S. & Kuikka, S. 2013. Optimizing the Recovery Efficiency of Finnish Oil Combating Vessels in the Gulf of Finland Using Bayesian Networks. Environmental Science & Technology 47: 1792 – 1799. Lehikoinen, A., Hänninen, M., Storgård, J., Luoma, E., Mäntyniemi, S., Kuikka, S. 2015. A Bayesian network for assessing the collision induced risk of an oil accident in the Gulf of Finland. Environmental Science & Technology 49: 5301–5309. See also: Lecklin, T., Ryömä, R., Kuikka, S. 2011. A Bayesian network for analyzing biological acute and long-term impacts of an oil spill in the Gulf of Finland. Marine Pollution Bulletin 62: 2822–2835. OPENRISK WS1 Lehikoinen & Venesjärvi 13/06/2017 21
THANK YOU! FOR MORE INFORMATION, CONTACT US! ANNUKKA.LEHIKOINEN@HELSINKI.FI RIIKKA.VENESJARVI@HELSINKI.FI Photo: Kotka Maritime Research Centre
WELCOME! ICES Working Group on Risks of Maritime Activities in the Baltic Sea (WGMABS) Warmly welcomes new and old members to participate its 3 rd meeting in Helsinki, November 6 th – 10 th Interested? Contact the chair of the meeting: sakari.kuikka@helsinki.fi OPENRISK WS1 Lehikoinen & Venesjärvi 13/06/2017 23
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