JMA/WMO Workshop on Effective Tropical Cyclone Warning in Southeast Asia Tokyo, JAPAN, 11-14 March 2014 Early Warning System in Japan and Lessons learnt from recent TC Disasters 14 March 2014 Yosuke IGARASHI Japan Meteorological Agency 1
JMA's Operational Service Observations Analysis and Forecast Products Space Based Warnings, Advisories Observation Computer System for Met. Service Numerical Weather Upper Air Prediction Observation Information Issuance Radar Data Collection Collection and Typhoon Forecast Observation Dissemination of Met. Data Surface Observation Local Met. Observatories Ocean Weather Forecast Observation One Week Forecast Seasonal Forecast International Data Aeronautical Met. Data/ Products Exchange Information Marine Met. Other NMHSs Information 2
Dissemination of Warnings JMA disseminates warnings and information via various channels in order to reach people surely and quickly. P refectural G overnments Municipality The Public G overnments National P olice Ag ency J apan Meteorolog ic al Ag enc y F F ire and Dis ire and Dis as as ter ter (L oc a l Meteorolog ic al O bs erva tories ) Manag ement Ag ency P ublic Agencies etc. NT NT T T (Nippon T (Nippon T elegraph and elegraph and Is s uance of dis as ter prevention T elephone C orporation) information, s uch as : Disaster Prevention ML ML IT IT (Water and Dis (Water and Dis as as ter ter Manag ement B ureau) Activities -Weather Warning / Advis ory J MA Webs ite, etc. -T yphoon Info. C ellular c arrier -E arthquake E arly Warning / Info. NHK NHK -T s unami Warning / Advis ory / Info. (J apan B roadc as ting C orporation) al -V olcanic Warning / Info. ic upport Meteorolog Media Org aniz ations enter S s -Aviation / Marine Weather Info. ines C P ublic Weather S ervices S ervice Us ers n us -V olcanic As h Advis ory pa B a J J apan C oas t G uard Marine V es s els ML IT (C ivil Aviation B ureau) Airplanes 3
Recent Heavy Rain, Flood and Storms in Japan Damages caused by heavy rain, flood and storms Source: "Shobo Hakusho 2013" (white paper on fire and disaster management) (Number of dead or missing) (Number of houses) Dead or missing Houses destroyed completely or partially 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (Year) 2004: 10 typhoons struck Japan! 2011: Heavy rain caused by typhoon Talas 4
10 Typhoons struck Japan from June to October 2004 500km T0404 T0406 (landed on Japan around T0410 (landed on Japan around 16:00JST, Jun 11) 09:30JST, Jun 21) (landed on Japan around T0411 16:00JST, Jul 31) T0415 (landed on Japan around (landed on Japan around 22:30JST, Aug 4) 06:00JST, Aug 20) T0416 T0418 (landed on Japan around T0421 (landed on Japan around 10:00JST, Aug 30) T0422 (landed on Japan around 09:30JST, Sep 7) T0423 08:30JST, Sep 29) (landed on Japan around (landed on Japan around 16:00JST, Oct 9) 13:00JST, Oct 20) 5
“ Guidelines for Producing a Decision and Dissemination Manual for Evacuation Advisories and Orders ” (Cabinet Office, 2005) During the disasters in 2004, mayors did not issue the evacuation advisory / order for appropriate hazardous areas in a timely manner. Background: Mayors can not make decision because they have not pre-determined specific criteria for evacuation advisory / order. Not determined: 15.6% Specific criteria is pre-determined: 7.1% Criteria is pre-determined: 84.4% Not determined: 92.9% Source: Cabinet Office, 2004 Municipalities should determine specific criteria. 6
Improvement of Warning Evacuation Order Municipalities Warning JMA Residents Warning Warning In order that JMA's warnings help mayors' decision... 1. Warnings should be issued to city / town / village respectively. 2. Warning criteria should be consistent with the criteria for evacuation advisory and order. 7
Warning for Cities, Towns and Villages Warnings used to be issued by zones that include several cities, towns and villages together in the same group (375 zones in Japan). 23 区 多摩西部 東部 多摩北部 23 区西部 多摩南部 warning advisory no warning / advisory 20km Tokyo JMA divided warning zones into city, town and village basis in 2008 (more than 1,700 zones in Japan). 奥多摩町 青梅市 足立区 板橋区 北区 清瀬市 瑞穂町 葛 飾区 東村山市 東大和市 羽村市 練馬区 武蔵 荒川区 村山市 豊島区 福生市 墨田区 西東京市 台東区 文京区 立川市 小平市 江戸川区 あき る野市 中野区 檜原村 武蔵野市 新宿区 国分寺市 小金井市 千代田区 昭島市 杉並区 国立市 三鷹市 中央区 江東区 渋谷区 府中市 港区 八王子市 日野市 調布市 世田谷区 目黒区 多摩市 狛江市 稲城市 品川区 町田市 大田区 8
Improvement of the Criteria for Flood Forecast Criteria recommended in the Guideline Flood Forecast with Level Mayor's Criteria Decision Water Level Setting Water level of the river Flood Danger Level Evacuation has reached " Flood Order Danger Level ." Embankment is broken. Flood Alert Level Water level of the river is Flood Watch Level expected to reach " Flood Evacuation Standby Level Danger Level " in certain Advisory hours*. *: Necessary time for people to evacuate Flood Forecast Title Water Level Water level of the river is Lv5: Flood Occurrence Info. (Flood occur) expected to reach " Flood Evacuation Danger Level " in certain Preparation Lv4: Flood Danger Info. Flood Danger Level hours*. Information *: Necessary time for people who Lv3: Flood Alerting Info. Flood Alert Level require assistance to evacuate Lv2: Flood Advisory Info. Flood Watch Level - Standby Level 9
Improvement of the Criteria for Storm Surge Warning Criteria recommended in the Guideline JMA set the criteria for storm Mayor's surge warning consistent with Criteria Decision " Storm Surge Danger Level ." Sea level has reached " Storm Evacuation Surge Danger Level ." 1. If the municipality already set the Order Tidal embankment is broken. " Storm Surge Danger Level ", JMA set the level as the warning criterion for the city, town or village. Sea level is expected to reach " Storm Surge Danger Level " in 2. If the municipality is NOT set the certain hours*. Evacuation "Storm Surge Danger Level", JMA set *: Necessary time for people to evacuate, Advisory however, storm will be also expected as the the warning criterion based on the tyhoon approaching, mayors should consider survey (e.g. design high tide level for the advisory when it meets the criteria for embankment, lowest altitude of the preparation information. wharf). Sea level is expected to reach Evacuation " Storm Surge Danger Level " in Preparation certain hours*. Information *: Necessary time for people who require assistance to evacuate 10
Improvement of the Criteria for Sediment Disaster Alert Criteria recommended in the Guideline JMA set the " Critical Line " as the Mayor's Criteria Decision criteria for Sediment Disaster Alert. The rainfall situation has probability 70 70 降雨発現 降雨発現 60 min. Evacuation reached " Critical Line ." rainfall with NO of rainfall 確率値 確率値 rainfall sediment disaster ・ ・ 非発生降雨 非発生降雨 A sediment disaster has Unreal Area Unreal Area Order occurrence mm/hr ） mm/hr ） 60 60 rainfall with amount 1.0 1.0 occurred in neighbours. sediment disaster (mm) 50 50 0.8 0.8 量（ 量（ The rainfall situation is 40 40 積算雨 積算雨 0.6 0.6 expected to reach Evacuation 30 30 " Critical Line " in certain 0.4 0.4 60 分間 60 分間 Advisory hours*. 20 20 *: Necessary time for people to 0.2 0.2 evacuate 10 10 0 0 The rainfall situation is 0 0 expected to reach 0 0 50 50 100 100 150 150 200 200 250 250 300 300 Evacuation " Critical Line " in certain Soil Water Index (mm) Preparation 土壌雨量指数（ 土壌雨量指数（ mm ） mm ） hours*. Information *: Necessary time for people who Critical Line of Sediment Disaster Occurrence require assistance to evacuate 11
Situation on Pre-setting Specific Criteria in 2012 Flood Storm Surge Sediment Disaster Specific criteria has been pre-determined Specific criteria are under reviewing Specific criteria are under development Not yet started Source: Fire and Disaster Management Agency, 2013 12
Achievement of the Link between Warnings and Mayors Decision Disaster Sediment Storm Surge Mayors River Flooding Disaster Flooding Decision Sediment Flood Evacuation Disaster Alerting Advisory Alert Information Storm Surge Warning Evacuation Flood Heavy Rain Flood Preparation Advisory Warning Warning Information Information Setting Up Disaster Heavy Rain Flood Storm Surge Countermeasures Advisory Advisory Advisory 13
Typhoon Talas Brought a Long-term Heavy Rainfall in 2011 Cumulative rainfall amount from 2 to 4 September, 2011. (mm) 50km 14
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