DRAFT August 21, 2019 INTRODUCTION Purpose of this presentation is - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

2016-2018 TERM REPORT REVIEW DRAFT ► August 21, 2019

INTRODUCTION ► Purpose of this presentation is to build on the overall results presented by the PAs ► Provides additional information on: − Multi-year trends − Sector performance − Savings by end use − Performance by PA ► Puts 2016-2018 results in context of 2019-2021 Plan www.ma-eeac.org www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation | | 2 2

HIGH LEVEL OBSERVATIONS ► Overall, PAs achieved more savings at a lower cost than planned ► Residential Electric − Lighting accounted for a large portion of residential savings • Few “deeper” measures appear on list of top savings measures ► Residential Gas − 2018 savings overachievement largely from insulation and wifi thermostats ► C&I Electric − Lighting in transition, but under planned for 2019-2021 − Haven’t seen electric HVAC savings turn around − Not many C&I heat pumps planned compared to 2016-2018 ► C&I Gas − HVAC gas savings are increasing www.ma-eeac.org www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation | | 3 3

ELECTRIC LIFETIME SAVINGS Portfolio Lifetime Electric Savings (MWh) 20,000,000 18,000,000 16,000,000 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 - 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Actual Planned Preliminary Planned (No Large CHP Project) www.ma-eeac.org www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation | | 4 4

ELECTRIC CAPACITY SAVINGS Portfolio Electric Capacity Savings (kW) 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 - 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Actual Planned Planned (Including Active Demand Reduction) www.ma-eeac.org www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation | | 5 5

ELECTRIC SAVINGS AS A % OF SALES BY PA Electric Savings as a % of Sales by PA 4.00% 3.50% 3.18% 3.04% 3.00% 2.50% 2.43% 2.62% 2.58% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Actual Planned Cape Light Compact Eversource National Grid Unitil Statewide Statewide (No large CHP Project) www.ma-eeac.org www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation | | 6 6

LIFETIME ELECTRIC COSTS TO ACHIEVE Lifetime Electric Costs to Achieve ($/kWh) $0.070 $0.060 $0.050 $0.040 $0.030 $0.020 $0.010 $0.000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Evaluated Plan Plan (No Large CHP Project) www.ma-eeac.org www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation | | 7 7

GAS LIFETIME SAVINGS Portfolio Lifetime Gas Savings (Million Therms) 600 500 400 300 200 100 - 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Actual Planned Preliminary www.ma-eeac.org www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation | | 8 8

Sector Review and Analysis www.ma-eeac.org www.ma-eeac.org 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation | | 9 9

Residential www.ma-eeac.org www.ma-eeac.org 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation | | 10 10

2016-2018 RESIDENTIALAND LOW INCOME SECTORS – OVERVIEW Residential Low Income Electricity Amount Percent to Goal Amount Percent to Goal Annual Savings (MWh) 2,161,717 124% 131,485 111% Lifetime Savings (MWh) 13,047,577 98% 1,202,418 116% Summer (kW) 318,990 123% 16,363 115% Benefits ($ millions) $2,267 95% $373 107% Expenditures ($ millions) $689 87% $194 98% Residential Low Income Amount Percent to Goal Amount Percent to Goal Gas Annual Savings (Therms) 48,145,611 105% 6,218,436 100% Lifetime Savings (Therms) 589,963,801 107% 124,094,834 101% Benefits ($ millions) $929 101% $247 117% Expenditures ($ millions) $371 96% $133 101% www.ma-eeac.org www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation | | 11 11

RESIDENTIAL ELECTRIC LIFETIME SAVINGS Lifetime Electric Savings by Sector (MWh) 5,000,000 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 Actual Residential Planned Residential 2,500,000 Actual Low-Income 2,000,000 Planned Low-Income 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 - 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 www.ma-eeac.org www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation | | 12 12

RESIDENTIAL LIFETIME GAS SAVINGS Lifetime Gas Savings by Sector (Million Therms) 250 200 150 Actual Residential Planned Residential Actual Low-Income 100 Planned Low-Income 50 - 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 www.ma-eeac.org www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation | | 13 13

RESIDENTIAL SA VINGS BY END USE, ALL FUELS Residential Lifetime Savings by End Use, All Fuel (MMBtus) 20,000,000 18,000,000 16,000,000 14,000,000 Envelope 12,000,000 HVAC Lighting 10,000,000 Hot Water 8,000,000 Energy Star Homes Behavior 6,000,000 Process 4,000,000 2,000,000 - 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 www.ma-eeac.org www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation | | 14 14

LIGHTING MEASURES DOMINATE ELECTRIC SAVINGS IN 2016-18 In 2016-18 top 10 measures = 93% of lifetime savings 6/6 9/4 3/3 4/5 5/8 7/7 10/- 8/11 Savings rank 1/1 2/2 2016-18/ 2019-21 Total Sector lifetime electric savings 2016-18: 13,047,577 MWh www.ma-eeac.org www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation | | 15 15 2019-21: 4,660,254 MWh

2018 RES GAS LIFETIME SAVINGS GOAL SIGNIFICANTLY EXCEEDED Top 4 overachieving (in 2018 Actual vs. 2019 Therms) measures in 2018 Plan Lifetime Therms 43.5.M/16.3M 43.5.M/16.3M Wifi Thermostats Wifi Thermostats 43.5.M/16.3M -62% -62% +19.5M LT Therms +19.5M LT Therms 24% over 75.2M/71.0M Insulation Insulation 75.2M/71.0M 75.2M/71.0M 2018 goal +19.4M LT Therms +19.4M LT Therms -6% 46 million Furnaces Furnaces Therms 13.6M/8.5M +4.6M LT Therms +4.6M LT Therms -38% Programmable Programmable 13.0M/8.6M Thermostats Thermostats -34% +4.6M LT Therms +4.6M LT Therms www.ma-eeac.org www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation | | 16 16

RESIDENTIAL BENEFITS Residential and Low Income Benefits (Electric and Gas Programs) $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 Water Benefits $2,000 Propane Benefits $ Millions Oil Benefits $1,500 Gas Benefits $1,000 Non Resource Benefits Electric Energy Benefits $500 $0 2016-2018 2016-2018 2019-2021 2016-2018 2016-2018 2019-2021 (Planned) (Actual) (Planned) (Planned) (Actual) (Planned) Residential Low Income www.ma-eeac.org www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation | | 17 17

RESIDENTIAL COSTS Residential Spending by Cost Category (Electric and Gas Programs) 1,400 3% 3% 1,200 4% 4% 3% 5% 4% 4% 1,000 4% 17% 21% 16% Evaluation and Market Research 800 Marketing and Advertising $ Millions Program Planning and Admin 600 Sales, Technical Assessistance & Training 72% 400 67% Participant Incentives 74% 200 - 2016-2018 2016-2018 2019-2021 (Planned) (Actual) (Planned) www.ma-eeac.org www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation | | 18 18

Commercial & Industrial www.ma-eeac.org www.ma-eeac.org 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation | | 19 19

ELECTRIC SAVINGS BY END USE Annual C&I Electric Savings (MWh) by End Use 700,000 600,000 500,000 Net MWh Lighting 400,000 HVAC CHP 300,000 Motors & Drives All Other End Uses 200,000 100,000 - 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 www.ma-eeac.org www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation | | 20 20

C&I LIGHTING SAVINGS PROJECTED FLAT OR DECLINING Annual C&I Lighting Savings 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 Net MWh 400,000 300,000 2016-2018 Evaluated 2019-2021 Plan 200,000 DNV GL Market Model (w/ KPI #4 % controls) 100,000 - 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 www.ma-eeac.org www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation | | 21 21

UPSTREAM LIGHTING SAVINGS TRANSITION FROM SCREW IN TO LINEAR AND HIGH/LOW BAY, MINIMAL CONTROLS SAVINGS Upstream Lighting Net Annual Savings (MWh) 250,000 LED Linear Lamp (TLED) High Bay / Low Bay LED Screw In LED Linear Fixture LED Linear with Controls 200,000 150,000 Net MWh 100,000 50,000 - 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 www.ma-eeac.org www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation | | 22 22

ELECTRIC HVAC SAVINGS DECLINE, BUT PLAN CALLS FOR REBOUND Lifetime C&I HVAC Elec. Savings 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 Net MWh 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 - 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 www.ma-eeac.org www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation | | 23 23