5. HERRING (Jun 21-23, 2016) #1 Dr. Rachel Feeney Council Staff Council Meeting June 22, 2016 1
Outline 1. A8 goals/objective 2. A8 timeline 3. MSE workshop outcomes 4. Herring PDT/AP/CTE input 5. MSE next steps Discussion goal Approve objectives, performance metrics, and control rules to be evaluated in the current Management Strategy Evaluation. 2
Amendment 8 goals 1. To account for the role of Atlantic herring within the ecosystem, including its role as forage; 2. To stabilize the fishery at a level designed to achieve optimum yield; 3. To address localized depletion in inshore waters. A8 objective 1. Develop and implement an Acceptable Biological Catch (ABC) control rule that manages Atlantic herring within an ecosystem context and addresses the goals of Amendment 8. 3
Amendment 8 timeline ABC control rule Localized depletion Council approved developing Cte tasked PDT with Jan. measures via MSE background analyses Apr - Cte/Council approved problem MSE workshop #1 May statement AP/Cte/Council review and 2016 June PDT tasking cont. approve outcomes July - AP/Cte review PDT work, Aug develop measures MSE technical work, updates at Cte/Council mtgs Sep-Oct Develop measures Nov Dec MSE workshop #2 Jan Council approve range of alternatives 2017 TBD MSE peer review; impacts analysis; public hearings; final action TBD 2018 Implementation 4
Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE) • Council is developing alternatives via management strategy evaluation, involving: • Discussion about the objectives/desired outcomes of the control rule. • T echnical analysis to test how the control rules may/may not achieve objectives. prior to approving the Range of Alternatives. 5
MSE workshop goals 1. Improve understanding of MSE. 2. Develop Council recommendations: a. ABC control rule objectives. b. How control rule performance relative to objectives could be measured. c. Control rules/characteristics to test. d. Improve understanding of the potentials and limitations of models that may affect simulation testing. Identify which uncertainties are most important to resolve. e. Provide an opportunity for stakeholders to provide greater input than typically possible at Council meetings. 6
MSE workshop participants Beyond the steering committee, facilitators, and staff, 69 people attended . 14% Herring Committee members 7% Herring Advisory Panel members 7% Herring Plan Development Team members 9% Herring fishery 12% Lobster fishery 4% Environmental non-governmental organizations 25% Other fishery (tuna, groundfish) 22% Federal/state agencies, scientists, other 7
MSE workshop outcomes Workshop developed objectives, performance metrics, • and ABC control rules that can be evaluated this summer with the current modeling capabilities. Some interest in considering spatial scales smaller than • the A. herring stock area (ME to NC). • Models are not yet advanced enough to consider spatial scales smaller than the stock area. • Council currently addressing localized depletion concerns through other aspects of Amendment 8. • For Amendment 8, the Council is focused on considering control rules for the Atlantic herring ABC, which applies stock-wide. A sub-ACL control rule could be developed through a future action. 8
MSE workshop outcomes Fundamental Objectives Means Objectives Maintain sufficient herring Ensure catch limits population for forage needs allow sufficient herring Prevent overfishing of herring for predators Maximize yield for herring fleet Achieve MSY or OY Maximize profit for herring fleet Limit annual variation Ensure herring catch temporal in quota Ensure appropriate stability Maintain a herring population fishing selectivity/ with normal size/age structure intensity Maintain predator abundance/ Establish a forage set- condition aside 9
MSE workshop outcomes Performance metrics (examples) • Herring SSB, B target , M relative to B MSY , B 0 • Herring ABC relative to catch when F MSY • Herring surplus production • Herring ABC inter-annual fluctuation • Predator abundance/condition • Revenue/profit 10
MSE workshop outcomes Control rules (examples) • Catch or F changing with biomass. • Set-aside (as unfished) 30% of SSB • Reduce catch (F) when SSB <75% B 0 • No catch when SSB ≤40% B 0 • Constant catch • In perpetuity • Above a high biomass threshold • Current control rule 11
Herring PDT input (May 23) • Outcomes thorough and well-developed. • Some performance metrics may not be directly included. Proxies can address intent, for example: Recommendation Proxy Condition of specific Sensitivity of a generic predators (e.g., tern predator’s recruitment, productivity of 0.8) natural mortality, growth Maintain B MSY at 4x natural The B MSY if natural mortality mortality is actually 4x what is assumed in assessment • A rebuilding plan is required when SSB <½B MSY , with F that rebuilds the stock in <10 years. This projection is difficult to simulate, but lower F can be. 12
Herring AP/Cte input (June 1-2) AP • No specific changes recommended. Some AP members did not support certain concepts, but supported evaluating a full range of concepts. Committee • No specific changes recommended. 13
MSE next steps June • MSE technical work underway Mid-Nov. • MSE technical work complete Early Dec. • MSE workshop #2 • Review outcomes • Recommend MSE iteration • Recommend alternatives Mid-Dec. • Potential MSE iteration • Herring PDT mtg • Review outcomes • Develop alternatives Early Jan. • Herring AP/Cte mtgs • Review outcomes • Develop alternatives Jan 24-26 • Council mtg – approve alternatives range 14
Recommend
More recommend
